December Auto Sales Roundup
January 4, 2013
December auto sales were reported by the major US auto manufacturers Thursday, and it appears the monthly SAAR was somewhere between 15.4 and 15.6 million units. Let’s dig into the results. Ford Best Idea Newsletter holding Ford (click ticker for report: ) has been on a tear since reporting a record operating margin in North America during its most recent quarter. Shares are up 35% during the past three months, and December’s results were another positive for the automaker. Company-wide unit sales grew 1.9% compared to the same period last year, driven by a 2.5% unit gain at the Ford brand, but hurt by a unit decline of 12% at Lincoln. For the year, unit sales in the US grew
Dear Valuentum Member
January 4, 2013
In such a short time that you’ve known us, you have seen us do so much: from generating more than 25 percentage points of outperformance in our Best Ideas portfolio since inception (May 2011) to delivering on our high-single-digit return goal of our Dividend Growth portfolio during 2012 to the Valuentum Dividend Cushion score predicting the dividend cuts of JC Penney (JCP), SuperValu (SVU), Roundy’s (RNDY), and others. You’ve seen us identify a triple in EDAC Tech (EDAC) and predict the bankruptcy of the parent of American Airlines (AMR). These are tremendous accomplishments. There’s an old saying in the market that if your winners are outperforming your losers, you’re doing a great job. Through November of last year, 87% of
Hard Not to Like Hormel’s Acquisition of Skippy Peanut Butter
January 4, 2013
On Thursday, food producer Hormel (click ticker for report: ) announced it will acquire Unilever’s (click ticker for report: ) Skippy Peanut Butter for $700 million. Skippy is a legendary brand, trailing only Smucker’s (click ticker for report: ) Jif in the US peanut butter market. The deal should add approximately $370 million in annual sales, while being mildly accretive to earnings in fiscal year 2013 and adding $0.13-$0.17 per share in fiscal year 2014. More importantly, Skippy is the market-share leader in China, and the company hopes to expand its international presence via Skippy and its popular Spam brand. Image Source: The Peanut Institute We like the deal for Hormel, especially since the peanut butter market has experienced fantastic
EDAC Tech Now Registers a 9 on Our Valuentum Buying Index!
January 3, 2013
Please select the image below to download its updated report.
December Retail Sales Roundup
January 3, 2013
Let’s take a look at retailers that still report monthly results. Nordstrom Nordstrom’s (click ticker for report: ) December was strong as usual, with same-store sales jumping 8.6% and total sales increasing 9.4%. We saw some weakness from the full-line Nordstrom store in November, but that trend was reversed by an 8.2% same-store sales gain in December. Nordstrom Rack continued to post fantastic results, with an 8.1% jump in same-store sales for December. All retailers benefitted from a more favorable calendar compared to 2011, but we think Nordstrom’s execution was strong regardless. Nordstrom continues to be among our favorite multi-line retailers, but we think its shares are fairly valued at current levels. Unlike other retailers, we aren’t worried about gross
Why the Fiscal Cliff Deal Helps Dividend Growth Investors
January 3, 2013
After Congress finally approved a deal to thwart the fiscal cliff Tuesday night, investors throughout the US finally have a clear picture on the tax treatment of investments going forward. Assuming no deal was reached, the US income tax code would have reverted to pre-Bush tax cut era rates, which included higher marginal rates at all income levels, higher capital gains taxes, and dividends being treated as ordinary income. Assuming several tried-and-true dividend aristocrats are valued by many on a yield basis, equity prices for high-yielding and overvalued stocks could have suffered a substantial price decline as the after-tax yield would have been meaningfully reduced. We felt the repercussions of uncertainty in the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter. Shares
No Coal? No Problem for the Rails
January 3, 2013
In the third quarter of 2012, we highlighted weak rail traffic as being driven by weaker coal shipments, and the trend continued throughout the fourth quarter. According to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), coal shipments for the week ending on December 22 fell 11.1% year-over-year. Given the wealth of railroads that were heavily leveraged to coal, including Norfolk Southern (click ticker for report: ), CSX (click ticker for report: ), and Union Pacific (click ticker for report: ), it would be natural to assume the entire segment is ripe for decline. Yet, that doesn’t appear to be the case. The AAR also reported that total rail traffic for that same week increased 0.9% compared to the previous year and
Fiscal Cliff Averted; Aerospace Rallying
January 2, 2013
After a volatile December, two of our favorite aerospace names, Astronics (click ticker for report: ) and EDAC Technologies (click ticker for report: ), are rallying significantly after a deal was finally reached to avert the fiscal cliff. Precision Castparts (click ticker for report: ), which had steadily moved higher during the fiscal-cliff ordeal thanks to optimism surrounding its planned acquisition of Titanium Metals (TIE), is also seeing strength today. We assumed both profit taking and overblown fears of defense cuts were the culprit behind the increased volatility, and it seems as though that could be the case. We continue to see substantial upside at these firms thanks to the massive, multi-year commercial aerospace backlogs of the large airframe makers. Our Best Ideas portfolio
Windows 8 Adoption is Looking Lackluster
January 2, 2013
According to a report from Net Applications, Microsoft’s (click ticker for report: ) Windows 8 adoption is not off to a great start. As of December 22, Windows 8 accounted for approximately 1.6% of total computer usage compared to 2.2% Vista obtained at a similar time after launch and well behind Windows 7’s 5%+ usage rate. Is it time to call Windows 8 a bust? We aren’t going that far, but unless we see a substantial increase in usage in the first quarter of calendar 2013, it looks like Windows 8 will not be an immediate success. Although the operating system represents Microsoft’s first foray into desktop/tablet integration, consumers aren’t nearly as excited as the company had predicted. Most enterprises have
Download An Excel File to Sort, Filter and Rank Firms in Our Dividend Growth Portfolio and Dividend Growth Watch List
January 2, 2013
Download an excel file in this article to perform further analysis of our Dividend Growth portfolio and Dividend Growth watch list.
