Can Eddie Lampert Turn Around Sears?
January 9, 2013
Earlier this week, Sears (click ticker for report: ) CEO Lou D’Ambrosio announced that he’ll resign from his position in February due to an illness in the family. Not so surprisingly, Sears chairman and hedge fund titan Eddie Lampert will be taking the reigns as CEO. Lampert, who merged Sears and Kmart several years ago, will be the chief executive for the first time, and as far as we can tell, he seems confident in his ability to turnaround the failing retailer. In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, Lampert cites Jeff Bezos’ success as a finance guy turned retailer leading Amazon (click ticker for report: ) as evidence that he can turn the dying company around. Although he hasn’t
Alcoa’s Guidance Bodes Well for Aerospace
January 9, 2013
Industrial stalwart Alcoa (click ticker for report: ) reported solid fourth quarter results and relatively optimistic 2013 guidance. Revenue exceeded expectations, falling 2% year-over-year to $5.9 billion. Earnings, after excluding several one-off items, were $0.06, roughly in-line with consensus estimates and favorable compared to the same period a year ago. Upstream products continue to feel the pressure of weaker commodity pricing, which has obviously negatively impacted earnings. However, the company has been able to lower its position on the cost curve, leaving it with considerable leverage to the upside in the event of price appreciation. Though upstream revenue remains mostly weak (even with favorable supply/demand dynamics), Alcoa continues to drive strong earnings from its midstream and downstream products, particularly in
Monsanto Crushes the Quarter on Strong Seed Demand
January 9, 2013
Following the weak North American farm yields in 2012, demand for Monsanto’s (click ticker for report: ) enhanced seed products drove fantastic fiscal year 2013 first quarter results. Revenue increased 21% compared to the same period a year ago to $2.9 billion, well above consensus estimates. Earnings grew 169% year-over-year to $0.62 per share, well in excess of consensus expectations. The results came as a bit of a surprise, even after seed competitor DuPont (click ticker for report: ) announced that it expected agricultural sales to accelerate in 2013, as the firm did a fantastic job increasing profitability. Sales of corn seed and traits surged 27% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, driving the 14% revenue increase in Monsanto’s seed and genomics
2013 International CES Trade Show Bodes Well for Intel
January 8, 2013
After bottoming in mid-December, shares of Intel (click ticker for report: ) have recovered and are exhibiting some near-term technical strength. Fears of margin compression and a lack of a mobile offering have been putting heavy downward pressure on the share price over the past year. But we don’t think this is justified. The fundamental outlook, which we have always found sound, has improved following announcements at CES. Intel will work on improving its mobile offerings, which is easily the best news, in our view. Though Intel hasn’t yet achieved much market share in the premium smartphone or tablet markets, the company announced a new generation known as Bay Trail that will power Android and Windows-based tablets with far better efficiency than
Roundy’s: A Cheap Stock in a Terrible Industry
January 8, 2013
After going public in early 2012, we profiled Midwestern grocery chain Roundy’s (click ticker for report: ). Earnings momentum has moved materially against the company, and as we predicted, the firm had to slash its enormous dividend payout. In a typical post-IPO period, management was optimistic about future prospects, and competition in the firm’s core Wisconsin market looked weak at best. What CEO Bob Mariano didn’t see coming was that Wal-Mart (click ticker for report: ) would enter Wisconsin in a big way, Woodman’s would keep growing, and Roundy’s-owned Copps would be thrown into a major price war, crushing same-store sales and margins. Our initial thesis included a stable, or even slightly declining core business, but not the 3.6% decline
Quick Note: Inside the Solar Industry
January 8, 2013
Even though shares of First Solar (click ticker for report: ) have more than doubled from the July low, we’ve remained relatively bearish on the poor structure of the industry and keep a below market fair value estimate on the firm’s shares. This weekend’s interview with Gordon Johnson in Barron’s digs into several trends we’ve identified as downward business drivers, including oversupply and subsidies from China, as well as declining investment incentive in the developed world. Please select the following link for the interview: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704723404578207732007178380.html#articleTabs_article%3D1 Please select the following link for our reports on the solar industry: /20121004_2
McDonald’s Going After the Wing Market
January 8, 2013
In a somewhat surprising move, McDonald’s (click ticker for report: ) is following up the chicken McBites with its own iteration of chicken wings. The “Mighty Wings” are currently being rolled out across 500 Chicago area restaurants (one location we visited advertised them, but had yet to receive the raw goods). Although wing prices are high and have been hurting profit expansion at Buffalo Wild Wings (click ticker for report: ), we like the move. Not only does it fulfill the need for the company to diversify its menu offerings, but we also think the new menu item could generate incremental revenue (assuming the wings are differentiated from other McDonald’s chicken offerings). Buffalo Wild Wings, for example, is still experiencing
We’re Holding Strong With Our Bank Exposure
January 7, 2013
We think individual banking stocks are a bit risky, but the industry outlook is positive, in our view.
Finish Line: A Turnaround?
January 6, 2013
Athletic footwear and apparel retailer Finish Line (click ticker for report: ) reported highly disappointing third-quarter results Friday morning. Revenue grew 5.2% year-over-year to $296 million, in-line with consensus estimates. Earnings were incredibly weak, as the company was roughly break-even for the quarter, well below the consensus estimate of $0.10 per share and down from earnings of $0.11 per share in the same period a year ago. We were not expecting such weak quarter, particularly given the company’s increased focus on basketball shoes, as well as the blockbuster lineup of basketball shoe releases from the likes of Nike (click ticker for report: ) and adidas in the third quarter. Basketball wasn’t the problem, as management noted that basketball shoe sales
Sales Surge at Family Dollar But Margins Miss the Mark
January 4, 2013
Dollar store giant Family Dollar (click ticker for report: ) reported a mixed first quarter earlier this week. Revenue jumped 12.7% year-over-year to $2.4 billion, slightly above consensus expectations. However, earnings disappointed, increasing just a penny compared to a year ago, to $0.69 (which was well below consensus expectations). Driving sales traffic wasn’t an issue, as same-store sales jumped 6.6% year-over-year. However, the strength was driven by lower-margin consumables, which grew 18.5% from the same period a year ago. Cigarettes were specifically identified as pressuring margins, but management remains confident that selling cigarettes is an overall positive for the business. President and COO Michael Bloom specifically said on the conference call: “We don’t believe that cigarettes — the fact that
