TXT

First Quarter 2017 Comes To A Close

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“Be sure to continue to study the difference between price and value—just because a stock’s price has advanced doesn’t make it more expensive if the value of its enterprise has increased at a faster rate. If you understand this concept, you may be smarter than 99.9% of the investing population.” – Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA The first quarter of 2017 came and went. Including dividends, the S&P 500 (SPY) roared nearly 6% higher during the period thanks to solid gains from the land of technology, an area that we have liked for the longest time. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) advanced more than 10% during the period, and key technology holdings in the Dividend Growth Newsletter … Read more

Boeing’s Lift Off, Lockheed’s Caution, and United Tech’s Outlook

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Image Source: Rob Buhlman Just how healthy is the commercial aerospace market? Very — if the size of Boeing’s backlog is any indication. Let’s have a look. By Brian Nelson, CFA In August 2016, we wrote an extensive update on the commercial aerospace market, “Boeing Declares Victory But Farnborough Disappoints,” and we encourage those that are digging into this follow-up note to read that piece first before proceeding. In this note, dated Wednesday, January 25, we’d like to build on that piece and update investors on a few insights we’ve gathered within the aerospace market. First, what was once a key company to assess commercial aerospace demand is no longer. As of November 1, Alcoa (AA) has been severed into … Read more

Industrials Empty Tool Box Amid Tough Operating Environment

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By Kris Rosemann How far we have come from the financial abyss! The US economy is now more than seven years removed from the credit crisis that sent shockwaves through the global financial system in the latter years of the past decade. In the fourth quarter of 2008, for example, real GDP in the US tumbled more than 8%, a figure not witnessed since the double-dip recession of the 1980s, and perhaps not surpassed since the time of the Great Depression. During the Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, many industrial entities, particularly those with finance subsidiaries faced dwindling credit health, and several including General Electric (GE) and Harley-Davidson (HOG) cut their dividends to shareholders. Others such as General Motors (GM) even … Read more

Alcoa Continues Swoon, Revises Aerospace 2016 Outlook to 6%-8% Expansion

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Image Source: Boeing; image source: Alcoa Alcoa (AA) kicked off first-quarter 2016 earnings season April 12, but nobody reading our work should have much interest in shares. Our $10 fair value estimate for the company explains the lack of opportunity, and we laid in out in no uncertain terms in April 2015 that we thought, “The Time to Consider Owning Alcoa Has Passed.” Even a few months before that write-up, we said the aluminum giant was trading at a peak multiple on peak earnings, a classic valuation “no-no,” and since that time, shares of Alcoa have fallen more than 40%, “Alcoa Kicks Off Fourth Quarter (2014) Earnings Season:” From our Jan 13, 2015 article: Would we ever considering owning Alcoa … Read more

Giddy Up – It’s Earnings Season!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA During the trading session January 27, Apple (AAPL) failed to turn the tide of a disappointing fiscal 2016 first-quarter report (calendar fourth-quarter), “Apple Will Go Lower…And It Will Be ‘Forced’ Into Acquisitions,” and coupled with a Fed statement, where the Committee left interest rates unchanged, as expected, many market observers read between the lines and hit the sell button. On the basis of some of the concerns we’ve outlined, “Not Doom and Gloom – But Just Cautious,” we can completely understand the hesitancy by participants to stay fully exposed to this tumultuous equity market. In many ways, that the Fed has hit the brakes just a few weeks after the long-anticipated rate hike means the global … Read more

Bellwether Snapshot: Walmart, Boeing, CSX

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Alcoa (AA) kicked off third-quarter earnings season with a wimper, which had been preceded by Yum! Brands’ (YUM) doozy of a showing. Incremental news impacting the expected performance of Walmart (WMT), Boeing (BA), and CSX (CSX) hasn’t been great either. Investors continue to write off weakness as “normal,” even “macroeconomic” as if it doesn’t matter, pointing to the transient nature of a struggling global economy suffering from a slowdown in the pace of growth in China and weakness in export-dependent countries, not the least of which is Brazil, as somehow a “good thing,” but it may not matter. The trajectory of expectations of future free cash flow generation is being impacted, and so are fair value estimates as a result, … Read more

Buffett Planning to Scoop Up a Valuentum Favorite

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We’re hearing that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) is nearing a deal to buy one of our favorite commercial aerospace suppliers and former Best Ideas Newsletter holding Precision Castparts (PCP). We’ve always been fans of Precision Castparts and believe its management team is one of the best in all of the industrial sector. This was likely something that convinced the Oracle that Precision Castparts was right for the Berkshire portfolio. As we’ve yet to hear specific deal terms, we believe Berkshire can pay up to $34 billion in equity value, or ~$240 per share and still make this deal work from an economic-value standpoint. Precision Castparts’ shares closed at ~$194 each Friday. We expect aerospace suppliers to catch a … Read more

Commercial Aerospace Flying High

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the resiliency of the commercial aircraft making business and the massive backlogs that offer a nice tailwind to the supply chain. Source of Images: Boeing (BA), Randy Tinseth (20-year Current Market Outlook, July 2014). If you cannot see the video, please click here. Aerospace Suppliers: AIR, AIRI, AL, ATRO, COL, HEI, HXL, ISSC, PCP, SPR, TATT, TDY, TXT Airlines – Major: AAL, ALK, DAL, JBLU, LUV, SAVE, UAL

There’s No Space Like Aerospace

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The recovery from the stock-market bottom in March 2009 has been five years in the making, but as the cyclical threat of an eventual global downturn looms, the aerospace industry is one of the few industries that we think will continue to be resilient in the face of such pressures. We expect commercial aircraft build rates to continue to climb at least through 2018. If the multi-year backlogs of unfulfilled deliveries at the large airframe makers aren’t enough, Boeing’s (BA) updated 20-year outlook for commercial aerospace demand, released June 10, was about as rosy as can be. The reason for such a long-range view has to do with the nature of aircraft building. When airframe makers build next-generation aircraft, they … Read more