TIF

Tiffany and Nike Disappoint in China

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Valuentum previously outlined the importance of brand strength in its comprehensive piece: “Valuentum’s Comprehensive Report on Retail Brands.” This article will focus on Tiffany’s (TIF) and Nike’s (NKE) performance in the Asia-Pacific, and where applicable, China, a country that we believe is vital for long-term expansion and to support our fair value estimates of both firms. Recent reports have put a damper on the outlook for luxury spending in China during 2014. Though the outlook is consistent with data points we’ve received with respect to slowing, but still robust, economic expansion in China, the commentary is worth nothing: Wealthy Chinese are likely to buy fewer luxury goods again this year after the steepest cut-back on spending in at least five … Read more

Iron Ore Prices Plunge

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Worries about the pace of China’s economic expansion are hurting prices for iron ore. According to data from the Steel Index Ltd, benchmark iron ore dropped more than 8% to $104.70 a dry ton March 10, falling the most since August 2009. Over the weekend, news revealed that Chinese exports dropped a surprisingly 18.1% in February, relative to expectations calling for a 7.5% increase. According to customs data released March 8, China’s imports of iron ore were 61.24 million metric tons in February, significantly below the 86.83 million tons registered in January. The news, while not shocking, wasn’t very pleasant. Still, we’re taking the recently-released February numbers with a grain of salt. Scares regarding the pace of China’s economic growth … Read more

Tiffany’s Bottom Line Sparkles in 3Q; Pricing Power Evident

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Tiffany’s (TIF) third-quarter results, released Tuesday, showed solid revenue expansion and fantastic operating leverage. Worldwide net sales jumped 7% on a reported basis and 11% on a constant-currency basis; comparable sales advanced 7%. Reported sales in the Americas region increased 4% thanks in part to growth in Tiffany’s New York flagship store. In the Asia-Pacific region, reported revenue leapt an impressive 27%; comparable sales in the region jumped 22%. Negative currency impacts hurt reported sales in Japan, but underlying, constant-currency performance in the country was solid. Even in Europe, a region that continues to struggle for economic expansion, Tiffany revealed 7% reported growth thanks in part to strength in the United Kingdom. The company’s profit margin performance was also wonderful … Read more

Is the Worst Behind China?

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Summer was not very kind to the Chinese economy. We’ve seen the country hit by concerns of credit overexpansion, as well as negative manufacturing data and declining exports. On top of macro issues, companies that usually prosper in China like Nike (click ticker for report: ) and Yum! Brands (click ticker for report: ) posted weak results. However, after bottoming out at 47.7 during July, the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI compiled by Markit turned modestly positive at 50.1 during the month of August (anything above 50 represents expansion). Industry destocking appears to be mostly completed, and manufacturers are receiving more new orders. HSBC’s lead Asian economist Hongbin Qu implied the economy had bottomed, saying in the press release: “The final … Read more

Tiffany Is Getting Back on Track

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Luxury jeweler Tiffany (click ticker for report: ) posted decent second quarter results Tuesday morning. Sales increased 4% year-over-year to $926 million, falling slightly short of consensus estimates, but not enough to warrant concern. Earnings per share were 15% higher than the year-ago period at $0.82, several pennies higher than consensus expectations. Source: Valuentum, Company Filings Same-store sales growth at Tiffany wasn’t bad during the second quarter, up 5% year-over-year on a constant-currency basis. However, it is hard to ignore the two-year trend that is clearly declining, as the two-year stacked comp shows (see light blue line on right in image above). Americas Recent trends in the Americas region reveal that much of Tiffany’s potential growth in the market has … Read more

Tiffany Leaps A Low Hurdle

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Aspirational retailer Tiffany (click ticker for report: ) announced better-than-expected results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2014 fiscal year Tuesday morning. Global sales increased 9% year-over-year (13% ex-currency) to $895 million, exceeding consensus estimates. Earnings per share were also better than anticipated after Tiffany tempered first quarter expectations, as earnings were 10% higher year-over-year at $0.70 per share on a non-GAAP basis. While the firm didn’t give out free cash flow during the quarter, it did give full-year free cash flow guidance of $300 million. The company’s previous fears of margin deterioration did come true, as gross margins declined 110 basis points year-over-year to 56.2%. Management cited product mix as the major driver behind the weakness as consumers … Read more

Will Tiffany Shine in 2013?

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Luxury jeweler Tiffany (click ticker for report: ) announced lackluster fourth quarter results late last week, but provided relatively upbeat guidance. Revenue grew 4% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, falling just a touch short of consensus estimates. Earnings per share rose 1% year-over-year to $1.40, a few cents higher than consensus expectations. For the full-year, revenue rose 4% to $3.8 billion while earnings per share dropped 5% to $3.25. During the fourth quarter, Asia-Pacific continued to be the company’s growth driver, with constant currency same-store sales growth of 6% driving total constant currency sales growth of 10%. Stores generated a sterling $4,500 in sales per square foot, and that number looks poised to grow in fiscal year 2013, even though the … Read more

Who’s Amazon’s Next Victim?

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An interesting white paper was released recently, analyzing how Amazon (click ticker for report: ) is altering the retail landscape. The paper itself had some interesting insights, but our favorite takeaway of Placed’s work was the top ten companies at risk. 1.    Bed Bath and Beyond (click ticker for report: ) 2.    PetSmart (click ticker for report: ) 3.    Toys ‘R Us 4.    Best Buy (click ticker for report: ) 5.    Sears (click ticker for report: ) 6.    Barnes & Noble (BKS) 7.    Kohl’s (click ticker for report: ) 8.    Target (click ticker for report: ) 9.    Costco (click ticker for report: ) 10. JC Penney (click ticker for report: ) For the most part, we agree with the list, … Read more

Coach’s Momentum Is Slowing

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Aspirational luxury brand Coach (click ticker for report: ) announced lackluster results for its fiscal year 2013 second quarter and the holiday season. Revenue increased just 4% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, short of consensus expectations. Earnings missed the mark by several cents, growing just 4% year-over-year to $1.23 per share. Our fair value estimate remains unchanged. Gross margins remained basically unchanged year-over-year at 72.1%, suggesting the company did not take markdowns during the quarter. Unfortunately, the firm’s 4% sales expansion trailed the 15% increase in inventories, which could indicate that markdowns may come eventually. We could see a gross margin figure meaningfully lower than the current low-70’s run-rate in the coming periods. Inventory growth was among the primary reasons why … Read more