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Market Overreacts to Facebook News

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Image Source: Christopher The headline news seems concerning, but we’re taking a long-term perspective with Facebook. We doubt the news will meaningfully impact the trajectory of growth of its long-term free cash flow, and we’re not reading too much into events that seem heavily-influenced by the overheated political environment. By Brian Nelson, CFA Investors are overreacting and selling shares of Facebook (FB) March 19 because they are worried about implications of a UK probe and a state investigation into the practices of Cambridge Analytica, a privately-held data mining and analysis company, and whether the way Cambridge Analytica acquired and applied data from users of Facebook was legal. The New York Times first broke the story when the paper published a … Read more

Facebook – Still One of Our Favorites

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Image Source: Facebook Let’s not beat around the bush with this article. Let’s talk about why we like Facebook in layman’s terms. The company is a veritable free-cash-flow generating powerhouse, and its balance sheet is pristine. We value shares at $238 each, and its rating of 7 on the Valuentum Buying Index isn’t bad considering the frothiness of the market. By Brian Nelson, CFA Shake off the idea that technology is riskier than any other sector because it might not be. Don’t worry about the concept of “fake news” tarnishing the Facebook (FB) brand, as that’s just noise. Facebook operates at the heart of society, and while there will inevitably be changes to its platform along the way, literally everyone … Read more

PayPal, Facebook Post Strong Second-Quarter Results

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Image shown: Facebook’s traditional free cash flow (CFO less capital expenditures), in millions. Two of our favorite holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio put up strong second-quarter results. We continue to like their respective shares. By Brian Nelson, CFA Online payments processor PayPal (PYPL) and social media advertising giant Facebook (FB) are two of our favorite holdings in the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter. Both forward-leaning, mobile-oriented companies reported second-quarter results after the market closed July 26, and both have traded higher following the release. PayPal’s revenue advanced 20% in the second quarter, after excluding effects from currency exchange, and the company leveraged that growth into an impressive 27% jump in GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share, the … Read more

Fair Value Estimate Changes: Facebook, Twitter, Caterpillar and More…

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  By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s begin this edition of Recent Material Fair Value Estimate Changes’ with a discussion of some of the highest-profile names that made the list. If you require background reading on why we make changes to our valuation models, please see: What causes fair value estimates to change? Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook (FB) continues to separate itself from other social media companies, and we continue to be impressed by its free cash flow generating prowess and net cash-rich balance sheet. Our most recent fair value estimate increase comes largely as a result of greater optimism regarding the sustainability of the company’s pace of revenue growth, reflected by a hike in our mid-cycle … Read more

Earnings Insight – Facebook

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Image Source: benstein Let’s dig into Best Ideas Newsletter holding Facebook’s (FB) third-quarter results, released November 2. By Kris Rosemann What management said: “We had another good quarter,” said Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook founder and CEO. “We’re making progress putting video first across our apps and executing our 10 year technology roadmap.” The scoop: Though shares of Facebook sold off on worries about slowing revenue growth after its third-quarter report, released November 2, the social media giant continues to grow at a tremendous rate. On a year-over-year basis, advertising revenue jumped 59% in its third quarter thanks to mobile advertising revenue growth of 78%. Mobile advertising revenue now accounts for roughly 84% of total advertising revenue. Declining total payments and fees revenue is … Read more

Facebook Flying, Twitter Tumbling

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Image Source: Esther Vargas By Kris Rosemann Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook (FB) continues to report incredible growth across its business, while remaining in the heart of the buzz surrounding the future of the Internet. We added the company to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio January 29, and we maintain our view that we haven’t seen anything yet. Facebook meshes with society so well that the company may eventually turn into the “next Internet” if humankind lets it. Let’s talk numbers because that’s what matters. Total revenue leapt nearly 60% in Facebook’s second quarter of 2016 on a year-over-year basis, while diluted earnings per share nearly tripled. The firm’s mobile growth continues to be nothing short of impressive in … Read more

ALERT: Facebook at All-Time Closing Highs

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“I’m completely baffled by Facebook’s pricing action, and I still think this one will again return to new highs.” — Nelson, December 20, 2018, with shares trading at ~$130 each. Shares of Facebook registered an all-time closing high of $218.30 per share January 9, 2020. By Brian Nelson, CFA We lost so much business at Valuentum because of our call on Facebook. Let’s talk about it. Facebook (FB) has been one of our best calls since it was added as an idea to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Facebook was first added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio in late January 2016, and on a price-basis, it has more than doubled since then, outerperforming the S&P (SPY) by about 40 percentage points. … Read more

Earnings Roundup: DIS, GM, PEP, TWTR, UA

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Image Shown: A look at the 2022 GM HUMMER EV pickup truck that is due to launch by the end of this year. Image Source: General Motors Company – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan In alphabetical order by ticker: DIS, GM, PEP, TWTR, UA Earnings season is roaring along, and we cover the reports of five more companies across different sectors in this article. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic continues to loom large, though we are encouraged by reports from Moderna Inc (MRNA) that its existing COVID-19 vaccine approved for emergency use is at least somewhat effective at treating variants of the virus according to initial clinical trials (a lot more work needs to be done … Read more

Cash-Based Sources of Intrinsic Value for Meta Platforms and PayPal Remain Strong

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Image Shown: Shares of Meta Platforms Inc (blue line) and PayPal Holdings Inc (orange line) have staged a nice comeback during the past month, as of the start of April 2022. By Callum Turcan Rising interest rates and the impact that has had on the market’s discount rate implictly used within the enterprise cash flow pricing process has pressured the value of equities with long free-cash-flow growth tails–stocks that are expected to grow at a meaningful premium over global economic growth over the coming decades. The rapid increase in the 10-year Treasury rate, no doubt, has had a profound impact on the equity values of long-duration cash-flow companies such as those held in the ultra-speculative ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), for … Read more