MSFT

What?!?! Microsoft Acquires LinkedIn; NO!

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Image source: LinkedIn It’s almost hard to believe that Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella would throw ~$26.2 billion of cash in the form of shareholder capital that could potentially go toward one of the best future dividend growth streaks in history at a large, Internet-based acquisition such as LinkedIn (LNKD), but it happened June 13. Unbelievable. We think most of the news outlets had to do a double-take before reporting the news (we did, too), and we’re not surprised that Microsoft’s shares are selling off on the announcement. Some are painting the deal optimistically, but we’re bummed out. We’re removing half of our position in Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on the news at ~$50.18 per share for … Read more

Since 2014: Microsoft Up ~50%; Alphabet Up ~30%, Visa Up ~40%

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Image Source: Brandon Martin-Anderson The past few weeks have been difficult ones for the newsletter portfolios. Sure, we’ve had some great reports from Hasbro (HAS) and Union Pacific (UNP), but the broad performance of some of our high-profile holdings hasn’t been what we’ve grown accustomed to. We’ve been concerned about the market’s “fluff” for some time, but equities have been racing ahead in any case, mostly in light of expectations for ongoing delays in continued contractionary monetary policy by the Fed, so the sluggish reports weren’t exactly what we were looking for to end the week. On Friday, April 22, we were “hit” with three rather glum quarterly reports from Microsoft (MSFT), Google – now known as Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), … Read more

Part II: Nelson’s Evaluation of Berkshire’s 2015 Annual Report

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Warren Buffett’s optimism about the future of America remains unending. Image source: /\\ \\/\\/ /\\ << Go back to Part I By Brian Nelson, CFA “If you want to guarantee yourself a lifetime of misery, be sure to marry someone with the intent of changing their behavior.” – a “Mungerism” explaining the importance of identifying good managers when pursuing a hands-off ownership style. We covered quite a bit of ground in the first part of the evaluation of Berkshire Hathaway’s 2015 annual report here, and we’ll cover even more ground in this second installment. We left off with a good conversation about the insurance business, and how part of Berkshire Hathaway’s business strength emanates from its fortress balance sheet and credit … Read more

The Corporate Buyback Conundrum

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The above is a trailing 15-month chart of the broad market index, the S&P 500 (SPY). As you can see, the markets have gone nowhere fast. The fallout in the energy complex coupled with emerging market uncertainty and political unrest in the US is making for quite the choppy market environment. Interestingly, however, since the middle of last year, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has quietly been distancing itself from this broad market benchmark, as strong performance from constituents coupled with a larger cash position in a generally weaker market have paid off. Where indexers focus on controlling costs instead of focusing on generating strong returns with relatively low turnover (and commission and tax implications), the strategy powering the Best … Read more

Alerts: High-grading! GILD–>JNJ; EBAY–>FB

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Pictured: The long-term view of Gilead’s Harvoni franchise has blurred. Prices updated, as of 1:36pmCT. By Brian Nelson, CFA We were very pleased by the market action of Friday, January 29, with the top weightings in each of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio performing extremely well. Visa (V), the largest weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (7%+), is simply “on fire,” with the company trading ~5% higher on the session at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range of $90 per share for shares is starting to look within reach for the credit-card network, “.” Visa generates an operating margin in the mid-60% range (not a typo), and there … Read more

Microsoft!

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  By Brian Nelson, CFA If there is any stock that you might think of when you think of Valuentum, it probably is Microsoft (MSFT). The software giant put up fantastic fiscal second-quarter (calendar fourth-quarter) results after the close January 28. Kudos to my University of Chicago Booth School of Business “colleague,” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. Things have really taken off since he took the helm in February 2014, “.” Microsoft is one of the largest holdings in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and it has been one of the best-performing equities since registering a high rating on the Valuentum Buying Index. The company also has been the “focus” income idea in nearly every one of Valuentum’s dividend growth presentations, … Read more

What’s Working in Today’s Market?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA As emerging markets around the world suffer from commodity-price-led economic weakness, capital continues to find a safe-haven in US government bonds (TLT, TBT), but for those equity-oriented funds that mandate a fully-invested status, not something we’re particularly advocates of, assets within US equities have favored “lower-beta” utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) sectors while cyclically-dependent and credit-levered sectors such as the financials (XLF) and materials (XLB) have suffered thus far in 2016. The industrials (XLI) and energy (XLE) sectors have also encountered higher-than-normal selling pressure in the first few weeks of the New Year, as investors evaluate the global economic landscape and what a prolonged period of low energy prices may mean for the lowest quality … Read more

Excited About Putting Cash to Work…Eventually

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Investors are fretting over a lot of things as of late. China (FXI) announced January 19 that fourth-quarter GDP fell to 6.8%, with many noting that the measure was a 25-year low. Even if you believe that number, which may be a stretch in light of collapsing local stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the outlook can’t be much better. Steel mills across the country are reeling, and while published housing numbers don’t look that bad, we have a difficult time believing the Chinese banks are in good shape. HSBC (HSBC), Standard Chartered, and Citigroup (C) remain most exposed to what we would describe to be the growing likelihood of a contagion from weakening commodity-dependent sectors in the country. Intel … Read more

Cash Is King: Microsoft Leading the Charge!

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It’s sometimes difficult for companies to overcome a tarnished reputation, particularly when it comes to a spotty dividend track record, but also as it relates to equity performance. The stock market is often unforgiving at times. Microsoft (MSFT) had long been viewed as “dead money,” or a term that describes an equity that languishes in a small trading range for years. For example, from 2010 to the beginning of 2013 (at the time it was added to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio), Microsoft had bounced around in the mid-$20s per share. But as the chart below shows, overcoming a tarnished reputation is not impossible; in fact, Microsoft has put its “dead money” reputation behind it, powering past levels even witnessed … Read more

Flash: Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Holding Microsoft Surges!

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We’ve been huge fans of Microsoft’s (MSFT) investment merits for some time now. We’ve traveled around the US, from Chicago to San Jose to Milwaukee/Madison and Cleveland highlighting the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding to investors that were open to learning more about the Dividend Cushion ratio. Please view one of the slide decks from our presentation in San Jose , for example. Not only has Microsoft been a tremendous valuation opportunity for much of the past few years, but its dividend growth prospects, as measured by its solid Dividend Cushion ratio, have simply been pristine since the company initiated the payout. Following Microsoft’s release of solid first-quarter fiscal 2016 results October 23, the company’s shares have converged to our … Read more