KORS

The 20 Something’s Stock Portfolio

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A version of this article appeared on our website March 31, 2015. <Our best ideas at any time are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.> The “20 Something’s Stock Portfolio” is the first in a series of articles where we get to the core of what many brand new investors want to do when they are first introduced to the stock market: find exciting companies that they are familiar with that will help compound their wealth over time. Other portfolios that we will share in this series include “The Ultra High Income Portfolio,” “The Economic Castle Portfolio,” “The Dividend Cushion Portfolio,” and “The Intelligent ETF Investor’s Portfolio,” among others. The series of portfolios will … Read more

Email Transaction Alerts

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We know many of you use our services for a wide variety of different reasons, whether for a primary source of fair value estimates and fair value ranges, to assess the risk of the sustainability of the dividend through our Dividend Cushion ratio, or to apply the Valuentum Buying Index as an overlay to your own processes and beyond. For those that are following changes to our newsletter portfolios, we’re going to make a few today. None of these should be surprising. First, we’re taking some profits in Altria (MO), removing half of our position in both newsletter portfolios. Specifically, we’ll be removing 158 shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and 101 shares in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio … Read more

Catching Up With Some of Our Best Ideas

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Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) Teva Pharmaceutical has been a key source of outperformance for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio since its addition in mid-2013, with its return excluding dividends currently at ~50%. We continue to think the generic pharma space offers significant opportunities for participants, and we like Teva’s global market position. We’re particularly big fans of its ‘first-to-file’ position in the US generics market, and we like its efforts to protect specialty drug Copaxone as the world’s leading treatment of multiple sclerosis. In the third quarter of 2015, foreign exchange rates took a slight toll on Teva’s reported revenue, which fell 5% from the year-ago period to $4.8 billion; on a constant currency basis, revenue increased 3%. Non-GAAP operating income … Read more

As the World Turns

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Our growing concern over market participants’ lackadaisical approach to what will inevitably become a contractionary monetary cycle has been evident for months. The US market crash of August 24 has disrupted the comfort levels of many investors, however, but it has not derailed the confidence of long-term planners, nor has it interrupted the conviction of optimists that believe the sky is the eventual limit for equity prices in their lifetimes. We take a more measured and cautious view of risky assets at Valuentum, and we’ll never tell investors to ignore the information contained in market prices. The risk of a recession in the US beginning this year is remote, but concerns are mounting for 2016. US gross domestic product continues … Read more

New Adds: One Name at a Deep Discount and Another Long-time Favorite

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Shown above: The carnage in the S&P 500. One of the most important measures that we strive to portray is balance. In our recent writings, we’ve demonstrated a very bearish slant on recent developments, and we still hold those views, but our actions within the newsletter portfolios are also very important in understanding how we react to such views. As we’ve outlined many a time before, global economic developments and US equity markets are not always inextricably linked, meaning that there could be times–seemingly more often than not–when the economy is heading south and equity markets hold up fairly well or even advance, and vice versa. Part of the core Valuentum process, however, centers on finding undervalued stocks and letting … Read more

Is The Time Ripe to Pick Up Kors?

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You just can’t buy cheap stocks, and hope and pray things will work out. You know this! Not you personally — you know, the universal you.  The fundamental framework of the Valuentum Buying Index protects you from falling knives. It requires stocks to be both underpriced and “going up” before we would consider them. Yes, we can talk castles, moats, dividends, and anything else you’d like. But the VBI is the essence of our teachings. It’s the culmination of all research and analysis. We’re not kidding. Name it. It’s in there. The best stocks will be ones that are underpriced on a whole variety of different metrics and are also experiencing buying action or accumulation, as revealed by an upward … Read more

Some Wiggle Room, Please

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Let’s go around the horn. Staples (SPLS) and Office Depot (ODP) will, in fact, join forces. The duo announced February 4th that Staples will pay $6.3 billion for its rival, valuing Office Depot at $11 per share, a nice premium to its previous day close and relative to our fair value estimate. Management expects to generate at least $1 billion in annualized cost savings. Removing redundant overhead, streamlining distribution and carving out other efficiencies will be par for the course. We also think pricing will ease up a bit, though competition from Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will always be present. We wouldn’t expect Office Depot’s equity to converge to the take-out price until the regulatory review is completed, likely … Read more

4 Opportunistic Stocks To Consider Buying in 2015

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The Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) is a philosophy that considers the valuation of a company and the likelihood that a company’s stock will converge to a cash-flow derived fair value estimate. The VBI accepts the view that value is based on the sum of a company’s future expected discounted free cash flows and the excess cash on its balance sheet, while acknowledging that market participants must eventually agree with a firm’s underpricing (and buy the stock) in order to drive the stock’s price to fair value. An underpriced stock with no buying support is not poised to generate good returns, nor is an overpriced stock with good momentum as it will eventually succumb to panic selling once euphoria fades. Stocks … Read more

Merger Talk: Coach May Be In Play

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With interest rates at lows, the equity markets at all-time highs, and executive teams looking for strategic and opportunistic growth opportunities, the table is set for some wheeling and dealing, in our view. We think Coach (COH), the aspirational maker of handbag and accessories, is on the radar of a number of suitors, the most likely being LVMH Moet Hennessy (LVMHF), according to Prime Retailer: LVMH groups representatives have recently shown interest in Coach, sources say. Recent shows and fashion line has appealed to the design team of LVMH, one of the persons admits. It could be the turnaround that attracts LVMH – turning its attention from classical high end luxury accessories label to full RTW apparel lineup. There are … Read more

Highlights from Tiffany’s Third Quarter

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TIFFANY REPORTS SOLID THIRD QUARTER RESULTS Key Takeaways from Tiffany’s Third-Quarter Results Tiffany (TIF) is executing fantastically, and the Americas region, where comps jumped 11% in the quarter, was the standout. We expect the US to be the bright spot in the global economy for the holiday season across the luxury goods space. The US consumer is relatively healthy (the preliminary reading for GDP in the third quarter, released today, was 3.9%, a very healthy pace).  Tiffany has become a gross margin story. The firm’s gross margin increased 250 basis points in the third quarter thanks to strong pricing, better cost controls, and a mix shift to higher-margin fashion jewelry. We expect sales and margin strength to continue into the … Read more