JCP

Debt, Debt and More Debt

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Image Source: Michael Fleshman Many readers may be familiar with the rhetoric of the Presidential Election Cycle of 2016 and Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders’ view on making “college tuition free and debt free.” You can take a read of the 6 steps Bernie will take as president to make college debt-free here. Many may find his last point rather intrusive to the heartbeat of the American economy and the driver behind innovation and standard-of-living improvements, but we’ll leave that conversation for another day. But what’s the shocking statistic, right? Get this – and I hope you are sitting down. According to an article by the Journal, “more than 40% of Americans who borrowed from the government’s main student-loan program aren’t … Read more

Kohl’s Dividend Mostly a Distraction

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Kohl’s (KSS) may be doing better than JC Penney (JCP) and Bon-Ton (BONT), the owner of Carson Pirie Scott, but the department store arena is flailing and has been for some time, even before the days of irrational exuberance when hedge fund giant Eddie Lampert merged Kmart and Sears (SHLD) in 2005. Things have only headed south since that time, and even the strongest in Macy’s (M), which has experienced falling comparable store sales and a plummeting gross margin as of late, has been forced to pursue innovative ways to generate value for shareholders in the midst of “consumer abandonment,” namely the consideration of an independently-traded real estate investment trust. Fourth-quarter results at Kohl’s, released February … Read more

Mixed Bag at Department Stores

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Where will consumers keep spending their money? This is a question that investors will always be trying to answer, no matter where we are in the economic cycle (during good times and bad). It is not always easy to predict the spending patterns of any demographic with any sort of precision, but let’s see how things shook out with some of the best-known department stores in the US during the third quarter of 2015. During the latter part of last decade, department store equities had been strong performers; shares of companies such as Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), and Nordstrom (JWC), for example, more than tripled from their respective bottoms during the Great Recession, but all three have witnessed their share … Read more

Dividend Cushion Ratio Predicts Two More Cuts

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Forward-looking, cash-flow based dividend analysis has proven its worth once again. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) recently suspended its dividend, and Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) has significantly cut its dividend. In each case, the Dividend Cushion ratio appropriately warned members. Early in July and prior to the elimination of its dividend, Chesapeake Energy ranked near the top of our list of dividend yields to avoid. Based on its Dividend Cushion ratio of -7.7, we rated its dividend safety as VERY POOR, and its dividend growth potential rating was also VERY POOR. The firm updated its financial strategy July 21 and eliminated its common stock dividend, effective in the third quarter of 2015. A reduction in investable capital due to the weak commodity price … Read more

Dear member,

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We have been blown away by the attention we’ve received from our warning on Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) valuation and dividend health. Our duty as an independent research provider has never been held in higher esteem as we outlined the prevalent hazards that reside both with sell-side research inundated with conflicts of interest and credit rating assessments that are paid for by the company. Independence will always trump biased analysis, and investors of all types have applauded us for this. We thank you. But being in the spotlight is nothing new for us. In the short history of the Dividend Cushion methodology, we have called in advance the dividend cuts on a few dozen equities: SeaDrill (SDRL), SuperValu (SVU), Roundy’s (RNDY), … Read more

Thanksgiving Weekend Sales Were Weak…

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According to preliminary survey results released Sunday by the National Retail Federation, retail sales during the Thanksgiving weekend tumbled 11% to $50.9 billion from $57.4 billion during the same weekend last year. Executives are having a difficult time explaining the sharp drop off in retail sales (RTH), given similar aggressive strategies and promotions as previous years, but we think there are a few reasons for the hefty decline. For one, the lure of the post-Thanksgiving “mad-rush” may be wearing off, and the emerging “negative” social stigma of those willing to shop (instead of resting with family) coupled with those who believe they are “being forced to work” during the holiday (see Walmart strike) without fair wages may be turning off … Read more

A Sneak Peek at Valuentum’s Slides for the AAII Presentation in Chicago This Saturday!

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Let’s take a sneak peek at President Brian Nelson’s slides for this weekend’s presentation in Chicago! Firms mentioned: MSFT, GOOG, AIR, BRCM, CSCO, SPY, AAPL, QCOM, MA, DPZ, SVU, RNDY, DDE, STRA, EXC, CLF, PBI, CTL, JCP and others. <select image to download the slide deck>

Sears Has Stopped Shrinking But Is This Really Good News?

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It appears that when things at a company are so bad, any glimmer of hope can result in an outsize upside stock-price reaction that is often unjustified on the basis of fundamentals. This appears to be what happened to Sears’ (SHLD) stock last week. The company was at the center of a massive short squeeze Friday, to a magnitude we haven’t seen in some time. We don’t think fundamentals at Sears have changed all that much. The struggling retailer said that EBITDA in the third quarter of 2014 would be equally as poor as that of the same period in 2013. The measure could be a $325 million loss (-$325 million) in the quarter, and this would be worse than the $178 … Read more

The Correction: The IMF, Oil, Department Stores, and the Fed

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  We’ve been heeding our own words of caution for the past several weeks now, as we’ve trimmed some of the cyclical exposure in both the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio. We also added protection to both portfolios several percentage points ago in the form of put option contracts on the S&P 500. These instruments aren’t for everybody, and the put options can still expire worthless if we don’t take profits. The above chart of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) shows the ongoing market correction, and we expect to continue to provide daily market commentary in the event that things get considerably worse. Our high-level prognostication is that the broader equity markets will be lower than they are … Read more

What Is Fat Pitch Investing?

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“I call investing the greatest business in the world … because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There’s no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.” —Warren Buffett, Interview in Forbes magazine (1 November 1974) “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything — you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!’” –Warren Buffett, 1999 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, … Read more