JAPAY

Philip Morris International Issues Favorable Guidance

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Image Shown: Philip Morris International Inc’s growth outlook rests heavily on its ability to grow its non-traditional cigarette sales volumes, and so far, the tobacco giant has put up tremendous performance on this front. Additionally, pricing power at its conventional cigarette business is also key, as that helps offset headwinds arising from secular declines in its annual cigarette shipment volumes. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – 2021 Investor Day Presentation By Callum Turcan During its 2021 Investor Day presentation held on February 10, tobacco giant Philip Morris International Inc (PM) reaffirmed its 2021 diluted EPS guidance and issued longer term guidance that was quite promising. The seller of Marlboro brand cigarettes in international markets (excluding the US and China) … Read more

Altria May Never Make A Comeback

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Image Source: Altria By Brian Nelson, CFA About 15 years ago, I picked up a text from Professor Jeremy Siegel out of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, The Future for Investors (1). I must have been at one of his talks. I ended up getting a signed copy from him; it was a neat experience. In any case, perhaps one of the more striking takeaways from his 2005 book was the following excerpt: Some readers may be surprised that (Altria) is a top performer for investors in the face of the onslaught of government restrictions and legal actions that have cost the firm tens of billions of dollars and threaten the cigarette manufacturer with bankruptcy. But in … Read more

Our Thoughts on Philip Morris International’s Latest Earnings Report

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Image Shown: Philip Morris International Inc has been able to maintain its global market share in the tobacco industry while pushing through price increases as indicated by its relatively strong ‘Combustible Tobacco Pricing’ performance seen through the first nine months of 2020. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Tobacco giant Philip Morris International Inc (PM) reported third quarter 2020 earnings on October 20 which saw the company beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Philip Morris International also raised its full-year guidance for 2020 in part due to industry volumes holding up better than expected in Indonesia, which raised the minimum selling price for cigarettes while also increasing cigarette … Read more

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holdings AT&T and Philip Morris International Continue to Shine

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Image Shown: AT&T continues to surge higher this year as shares of T converge towards their intrinsic value, a process supported by recent activist investor activity directed towards the company. If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA AT&T On October 28, AT&T Inc (T) reported third-quarter 2019 earnings, and the market clearly liked what the company had to say. Shares of AT&T are trading up ~4% as of this writing as the company’s stock price continues converging towards its intrinsic value, in our view. Our fair value estimate for AT&T stands at $40 per share, with room for upside, and we continue to … Read more

Philip Morris International: Free Cash Flow King With Upside Potential

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Image Shown: Philip Morris International’s Marlboro cigarette brand remains very popular worldwide. Pricing power is essential to offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales volumes as the company positions itself for alternative tobacco products to become a larger part of its revenue streams. Image Source: Philip Morris International – Third quarter 2019 earnings presentation By Callum Turcan Philip Morris International (PM) posted third quarter 2019 earnings on October 17. As of this writing, Philip Morris International yields 5.8%, and we include shares of PM in our simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. While the company cut its full-year forecast for 2019 partially due to a tax charge, the deconsolidation of a subsidiary, and foreign currency headwinds, Philip Morris International is still … Read more

In The News: Hurricane Florence, Tariffs and Capital Spending Delays, Kroger and Big Tobacco on the Move

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  Let’s take a look at some of the top stories across the market, including the impact tariffs are having on capital spending plans and bottom lines and recent developments in big tobacco. By Kris Rosemann As Hurricane Florence bears down on the East Coast of the US, risk modeling firm RMS believes US insurers should be bracing for $20 billion in losses. More than 1 million people have been ordered to evacuate the area, and the threat of a combination of storm surge, wind, and inland flooding may prove to be significant as Duke Energy (DUK) estimates 1-3 million customers may be left without power across North and South Carolina. Privately-held Liberty Mutual Insurance and Nationwide Mutual Insurance are … Read more

Philip Morris Shocks the Tobacco Space But Why?

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Image Source: Philip Morris Investors are overreacting to Philip Morris’ first-quarter 2018 report, and the company is dragging the entire tobacco industry down with it. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market seems like it has gone “mad,” with Philip Morris trading off nearly 20% following its first-quarter report April 19. The company beat on the bottom line, while revenue roughly came in-line for the period, and the cigarette maker raised its full-year diluted earnings per share forecast to be in a range of $5.25-$5.40, above consensus forecasts of $5.26 and representing ~35%-39% growth versus the $3.88 mark in 2017. The regulatory landscape in tobacco remains in influx, with the FDA looking to set maximum nicotine levels in cigarettes, new rules … Read more

Philip Morris International Moving on Upwards

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Image Shown: We increased the weighting in shares of Philip Morris International in the High Yield Newsletter portfolio back on November 18, 2019. Shares of PM have rallied aggressively off of their Fall 2019 lows through the middle of February 2020. By Callum Turcan One of our favorite high yield ideas out there is Philip Morris International Inc (PM), and please note we increased the weighting of shares of PM in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio (check out our HYDN here) back on November 18, 2019 (link here covering those portfolio changes), and our timing couldn’t have been better considering shares of PM have aggressively rallied since September 2019 through the middle of February 2020. There’s still room for … Read more

Philip Morris International is Ready to Ride Out the Storm

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Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On April 21, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio holding Philip Morris International Inc (PM) reported first-quarter earnings for 2020 which beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates. Shares of PM currently yield ~6.1% as of this writing, and we view that payout as well-covered given the resilience of Philip Morris International’s free cash flows and business model (demand for tobacco and tobacco products is inelastic), along with the firm’s ability to tap its revolving credit lines and potentially debt markets if needed. Management pulled the firm’s full-year guidance for 2020 and instead offered guidance for the second quarter, given the lack of clarity … Read more

Philip Morris International Posts Solid Guidance, Cuts Costs

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Image Shown: Excluding foreign currency headwinds, Philip Morris International Inc’s financials held up relatively well during the first half of 2020, all things considered with an eye towards the pandemic. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has severely stressed consumer spending in countries all over the globe, and that includes spending on cigarettes and other tobacco products. For a major tobacco company like Philip Morris International Inc (PM), this dynamic weighs negatively on its near-term outlook, though the company is well-positioned to ride out the storm for several reasons. We continue to like Philip Morris International as a holding in the High Yield Dividend … Read more