JAG

What Is Gold Really Worth?

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“What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As ‘bandwagon’ investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while.” — Warren Buffett (2011 annual letter to shareholders) Image: Gold prices have surged since 2020, and they recently hit an all-time high. Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA Stocks have quite a few variables that can affect their intrinsic value estimate, but what about gold’s intrinsic value? Does gold even have value? And if so, how … Read more

Newmont Updates Investors Ahead of Earnings

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Image Source: Newmont Corporation – January 2020 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Back on January 13 (link here), we added Newmont Corporation (NEM) to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio with a modest weighting as part of our shift towards more defensive names in light of rising exogenous headwinds to global economic activity. Some important considerations include Newmont increasing its quarterly payout to $0.25 per share from $0.14 per share, which is expected to be declared at the level in April 2020 (the fourth quarter of 2019 dividend, as management puts it, will be paid out in March 2020 at $0.14 per share). As of this writing, Newmont would yield ~2.2% at the new annualized dividend rate. We like Newmont’s dividend … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Gold Mining Industry

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Images Source: Newmont Mining Structure of the Gold Mining Industry Gold miners are tied to the world price of gold, which depends on a number of demand drivers: industrial and jewelry; gold as an investment; central bank activity; inflation expectations; and speculative trading. If realized prices on the yellow metal fall and remain at low levels, mining profitability would be significantly impaired. Industry constituents must constantly seek to replace reserves depleted by production via new exploration, which remains a speculative activity. Unexpected project cost overruns remain another key risk. In general, we’re not huge fans of the volatile fundamentals of the gold mining sector. Several companies previously in this group have been reassigned to the Diversified Mining Industry here. << … Read more

Newmont Suffers from Weak Gold Prices; Underscores Industry Troubles

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Last Friday morning, gold miner Newmont Mining (click ticker for report: ) reported mediocre second quarter results. Revenue declined 11% year-over-year to $2 billion, slightly below consensus estimates. Earnings per share, adjusted for an impairment charge related to lower gold prices, swung to a loss of $0.10 compared to a profit of $0.59 during the same period a year ago. The company generated negative free cash flow of $317 million as capital expenditures remained too high relative to operating cash flow. Newmont also cut its dividend to $0.25 per share, down 29% sequentially. Newmont’s second quarter highlighted the challenges we continue to witness in the gold-mining industry, especially with respect to the weak price of gold. Over the past several … Read more