FXF

Currency: Cases in Probabilistic Thinking

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The rally in the Mexican peso relative to the US dollar during the first Trump-Clinton debate of 2016 showcased the increased likelihood of a Clinton victory, in light of Trump’s current political agenda. Instances like this, where currency markets serve to act as a probability indicator of the likelihood of a future event, have occurred through the course of history, the most fasinating of which happened during the American Civil War and with Confederate scrip specifically. Image Source: Bloomberg, “Mexican Peso Gives Clearest Signal Trump Lost Debate“ By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we talk a lot about how markets act as “discounting” mechanisms of the probability of future events, and more specifically as it relates to stocks, how a … Read more

Valuentum Weekly Web Commentary

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Stocks mentioned in this edition: Airbus (EADSY), Anthem (ANTM), Boeing (BA), Canada Pacific (CP), Chipotle (CMG), Cigna (CI), CSX (CSX), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Lockheed Martin (LMT), NextEra (NEE), Rockwell Collins (COL), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Ulta Salon (ULTA), Union Pacific (UNP), UnitedHealth (UNH), Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU), Vulcan Materials (VMC), W. W. Grainger (GWW) Chipotle Not Showing Signs Of Recovery What we originally believed to be a transient issue has turned into an extended public relations nightmare for fast-casual restaurant chain Chipotle (CMG). Though we do not necessarily question the safety of its food, we view its brand as damaged and the potential reward that would come along with a return to favor in the … Read more