AMZN

Icahn’s In-depth Letter to Apple Still Does Not Remove Time Horizon

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We believe Apple’s (AAPL) shares have valuation upside (see 16 page report), but as we have outlined before here, activist investor Carl Icahn’s proposal to force Apple to buy back stock over a certain time period (“during fiscal 2014”) as opposed to under a certain price (our fair value estimate) is imprudent. We encourage Icahn to further revise his proposal. Additionally, we think Icahn’s valuation process is too simplistic (see footnote 1), and we encourage him to disclose a more rigorous valuation assessment of the firm that takes long-term forecasts into consideration. Said differently, we’d like him to justify why Apple should trade for 16 times earnings on the basis of Apple’s own financials, not merely use the consensus market multiple for justification. … Read more

Has the Time for Robots Finally Arrived?

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The 1980s were filled with ideas that robots would take over our personal lives. There was, of course, The Terminator, which ingrained a sense of fear within society about the potential dangers of advanced robotic use. But there were other “friendlier” movies, too. Who could forget the beloved ‘Johnny 5’ in Short Circuit or Paulie’s robot “girlfriend” in the fourth installment of the Rocky series? Unlike depicting a robotic assassin from a post-apocalyptic future, these movies showed the humanization of robots with feelings like fear and love. Are we now re-living a bout of 1980s nostalgia, with Amazon (AMZN) and UPS (UPS) recently talking about unmanned flying drones delivering packages to consumers’ door steps? It’s probably not too far of … Read more

Cyber Monday Online Sales Rocketed Higher; Mobile Growth Spectacular

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On Monday, Channel Advisor (ECOM), a leading provider of cloud-based e-commerce solutions, released its assessment of Cyber Monday: Amazon and eBay are trending over 30% compared to last year. Google Shopping continues its gains as well. Search and CSE slowed down through the day with Search currently trending ~6% and CSE 14%. Overall it looks like Cyber Monday is (still) on track to be up over 30% compared to last year from a SSS basis, which would make it a new record day for e-commerce! Today, the firm followed up with a few additional anecdotes and its thoughts about the Cyber Five, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday: Amazon – Amazon is off to a strong holiday. The … Read more

2 Pieces of News You Never Expected on Cyber Monday

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Monday is shaping up to be a unique news day following excellent online retail sales over the holiday weekend. Amazon’s (AMZN) flying drones and Darden Restaurants’ (DRI) “Italian” burgers seem to have stolen the show today. Amazon’s Flying Drones During a 60 Minutes interview, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said that the firm is experimenting with fulfilling small orders using drone aircraft, a service dubbed Prime Air. In what sounds more like science fiction than a strategic endeavor, Bezos hopes the drones will allow Amazon to deliver products in as little as 30 minutes, giving its same-day efforts a boost. The “flying drone” service is scheduled to be in place within 4-5 years and will require approval from the Federal Aviation … Read more

Great Early Holiday Sales Read for Best Ideas Portfolio Holdings

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On Saturday, IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark, a source for real-time cloud-based online retail data and analysis, revealed strong online retail trends for this Thanksgiving and Black Friday: US Holiday shoppers once again shopped online early for the best deals with Thanksgiving Day online sales increasing by 19.7 percent over 2012. This momentum set the stage for a record Black Friday, with online sales growing 18.9 percent over the same period last year. The biggest surge came from mobile sales increasing to 25.8 percent of total online sales for Thanksgiving and 21.8 percent for Black Friday as consumers went from the dinner table to their tablets to lock in the best offers. In addition, IBM reported that New York City consumers … Read more

E-commerce Exposure Still Makes Sense

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The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce reported Friday that it estimates US retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter, adjusted for seasonal variation, came in at 17.5% (+/- 5.8%) versus the same period a year ago. On an adjusted basis, US retail e-commerce sales, as a percent of total quarterly retail sales, have advanced to nearly 6%, up from just 2% at the beginning of 2004 (shown in image below). Both the rapid pace of US retail e-commerce sales expansion and the trend toward more transactions being completed online show no signs of slowing. Image Source: US Department of Commerce The positive data follows comScore’s (SCOR) report, released earlier this month, of a 13% increase in US desktop-based … Read more

Best Buy Tumbles Back to Our Fair Value Estimate

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On Tuesday, Best Buy (BBY) reported decent third-quarter results considering the intense competition from both brick-and-mortar locations and online powerhouses. Revenue was essentially flat from the same period a year ago, as comparable store sales of 0.3% improved substantially from the year-ago period’s 5.1% decline (see image below). Leading the charge in the quarter was Best Buy’s online presence, where same-store sales advanced 15.1% in the quarter, accelerating from the 10.3% pace set in the third quarter of last fiscal year. Increased traffic, a higher average order value, and a higher number of online orders being placed in retail stores benefited domestic online revenue. The rate of the company’s international comparable same-store sales decline slowed to 6.4% from more than … Read more

Facebook: The New Internet?

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First of all, we’d like to thank you for your ongoing support and wonderful emails about the performance of the dynamic duo today: Google (GOOG) and Baidu (BIDU), two holdings in the portfolio of our Best Ideas Newsletter. We very much appreciate your kind words. Though we (and hopefully all of our members) have profited greatly from these two behemoths in the ‘Internet Content & Services Group,’ we could have done a better job alerting you to Facebook’s recent meteoric rise. Today, we’ve raised our fair value estimate of Facebook (FB) to $76 per share (the high end of the fair value range is now $93 per share) as a result of more optimistic assumptions related to the firm’s opportunity in mobile and … Read more

Best Buy’s Comparable Sales Decline Moderates

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Electronics retailer Best Buy (click ticker for report: ) posted better-than-anticipated second quarter results Tuesday morning. Revenue was basically flat year-over-year at $9.3 billion, exceeding consensus estimates. Adjusted earnings-per-share was 23% higher year-over-year at $0.32, well above consensus expectations. Year-to-date, free cash flow was negative at $282 million, but we’re not worried considering this figure is much improved compared to the prior-year period. Source: Valuentum, Company Filings In our view, the most encouraging news in the quarter was the firm’s domestic same-store sales, which were down just 0.4% year-over-year. In fact, we can see from the above chart that the two-year trend at the important domestic store base is improving, while online sales continue to grow at a solid rate. … Read more

Amazon Fails to Turn a Profit

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Thursday afternoon, e-commerce heavyweight Amazon (click ticker for report: ) reported mediocre second quarter results. Revenue increased 22% year-over-year to $15.7 billion, falling short of consensus estimates. Earnings per share swung to a loss of $0.02, which was also worse than consensus expectations. Free cash flow for the quarter was surprisingly positive at $25 million, equal to less than 1% of revenue. Amazon remains firmly entrenched in “investment” mode, as the firm spent well over $800 million on internal investments during the second quarter. The company specifically cites spending on fulfillment centers and server infrastructure as well as continued investment in the Amazon Prime Instant stream. Within the not-so-distant future, we can envision an Amazon where same-day shipping is the … Read more