AMZN

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio

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Image Source: fauxto_digit We made a few tactical tweaks to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle. < Note: The introduction is the same as that of the tactical analysis of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. If you have already read through the introduction, please proceed to the section, Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio below. > By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m not going to reference The Art of War written by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu some time in the 5th century, nor am I going to use any quotes from the military treatise (I think it’s too well-traveled of a topic), but I do … Read more

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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Image Source: Anna & Michal We made a few tactical tweaks to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m not going to reference The Art of War written by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu some time in the 5th century, nor am I going to use any quotes from the military treatise (I think it’s too well-traveled of a topic), but I do believe the approach to portfolio management is much like that of a general on a path to win the war. Now, don’t get me confused: I’m not saying that portfolio management is actually like being in … Read more

A “Terrible” Negative Alpha-Generating “Trade” and More

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Let’s walk through some of the news before the Thanksgiving holiday, and one of the bigger missteps we made during 2017. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’d like to run through the news before many of you take a break for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thanks again for your attention. It means the world to our team that you see and understand the things that we’re doing, the great calls we make with our top-weighted ideas (see here and here), the extensive valuation processes we perform with respect to the discounted cash-flow process (see here), and how we provide that in downloadable pdf form (see here) – and we’re here to talk about our expectations! You can get reports from anybody, of … Read more

How Have Our Best “Dividend Growth Ideas” Performed During 2017?

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Read about the ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio >> We wrote recently about how well the top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio have performed during 2017, but what about the top-weighted ideas in the other newsletter portfolio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio? How have they performed during 2017? Please tell us you know how well the top-weighted ideas have been performing. Key Takeaways: 1) “Excluding dividends, the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF has advanced less than 9% this year. Meanwhile, excluding dividends, the two top-weighted ideas in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, Johnson & Johnson and Intel, are up ~20% and ~24%, respectively, more than double that of the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF.”  2) “We’re viewing … Read more

CVS Health Under Review – Hit by a Storm of Negativity

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Image Source: Mike Mozart We are putting the fair value estimate of CVS Health under review while we re-evaluate the competitive environment and reassess the company’s appetite for leverage, which could impact dividend health. Brian Nelson, CFA Boy has CVS Health (CVS) been hit by a storm of negativity in recent months. After we added it to the newsletter portfolios, the company has gotten caught up in a whirlwind of investor concern regarding Amazon’s (AMZN) probable entrance in the pharmacy market. We noted as much in our September 30 note, “Amazon Casts a Large Shadow Over the Pharmacy Market,” and we said that even we were “growing more and more cautious on shares,” as we pointed to Amazon’s potential acquisition … Read more

Amazon Casts a Large Shadow Over the Pharmacy Industry

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Image Source: Mike Mozart It is our belief the food retailing industry is in the midst of widespread disruption with Amazon’s attempt to break into the supermarket game with its audacious purchase of Whole Foods. The Whole Foods acquisition is not likely to be an isolated one-off event; instead, it may be a harbinger of Amazon’s ambition to break into new markets, thus expanding its overall percentage of retail sales. We update our views on Amazon and how the company may eventually impact newsletter portfolio holding CVS Health. By Alexander J. Poulos Emulating the Costco Model Amazon’s (AMZN) purchase of Whole Foods (WFM) may be the initial step towards emulating the uber-successful Costco (COST) model where the bulk of profits … Read more

Let’s Talk Business Analysis

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Valuentum’s Brian Nelson explains the benefits of combining both economic moat and economic castle analysis in business analysis. An excerpt from part II of Valuentum’s four-part investment education workshop. If you cannot see the video, please view the transcript below or select the link here. If you would like to purchase Valuentum’s investment education workshop, please visit the page here. Brian Nelson, CFA: “In business I look for economic castles, protected by unbreachable moats… (quoting Warren Buffett).” If you take out some of the prepositions, Warren Buffett looks for economic castles. So what we do is we provide the analysis associated with the Economic Castle rating. The Economic Castle rating is based on the academic framework that suggests that economic profit … Read more

Recent Stock Drops; Dividend Cut Coming at Plains?

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Image Shown: Plains All American’s stock price may be building in a distribution cut that may materialize in the near term. Several companies disappointed the Street as of late. Though the broader equity markets have been generally calm and steadily-advancing, some underlying constituents have been anything but. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s been a bull market for some time, but that doesn’t mean all is calm within the ranks. Plains All American (PAA) disappointed investors August 8 after performance during its second quarter came in below expectations and the company lowered forward guidance. We’ve been cautious on the master limited partnership (MLP) space and critical of certain industry-specific metrics for some time, so the disappointment shouldn’t be surprising to our readership. … Read more

Discovery-Scripps Joining Forces to Take on the Changing Digital Media Landscape

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Image Source: Lwp Kommunikáció Discovery Communications has agreed to acquire Scripps Networks, but will it be enough for the two to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving–and consolidating–media landscape? By Kris Rosemann The cable TV industry is not what it was only a few short years ago, and Discovery Communications (DISCA) finally getting its hands on the assets of Scripps Networks (SNI) is only further evidence of this. Both companies have had a relative amount of success in delivering compelling programming to targeted audiences in years past via traditional pay-TV channels, but the days of tuning in to Shark Week on The Discovery Channel through your local cable provider are fading fast. The cord-cutting revolution is one that has been well-covered … Read more

Amazon’s Free Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Health Impressive

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Amazon’s share-price performance is a sign of these “frothy” times. By Brian Nelson, CFA We love Amazon’s (AMZN) products and how it makes millions of people’s lives better each and every day. We hear what the “bulls” are saying, too–about top-line expansion and the company’s second quarter being a period of greater investment–but earnings and free cash flow matter. If not today or tomorrow or a few years from now, they will eventually. For Amazon, as strong as its free cash flow generation and net cash position on the books are, the combination doesn’t justify its current lofty valuation. The stock trades at over $1,000 per share at the time of publishing, and it’s almost laughable, by comparison, that we … Read more