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Valuentum Commentary
Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Jun 10, 2024
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site. Mar 3, 2024
Merger Mania
Image Source: Glenn Beltz. Mergers and acquisition [M&A] activity continues as the market sets new highs. Elevated borrowing costs as a result of the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking cycle in 2022 are pushing many entities to pursue all-stock transactions. Feb 15, 2024
Cisco Looks Cheap at 13x Forward Non-GAAP Earnings But Fundamentals Are Deteriorating
Image: Cisco has ratcheted down expectations during the past couple quarters, and its shares have been choppy for the better part of a year now. We’re not liking what we’re seeing from Cisco Systems these days, and this is a change from our generally more upbeat view during the past several months. Revenue is under pressure, guidance continues to come in lower than expectations, its balance sheet will weaken as a result of its pending deal for Splunk, and free cash flow trends haven’t been as strong as they used to be. The company is adjusting its cost structure with layoffs as it continues to work to transform its business model to be more recurring, but the near term will likely continue to be challenging for the company. If free cash flow does not meaningfully improve in the next couple quarters, we’ll look to remove Cisco from the newsletter portfolios, despite its attractive ~13x forward non-GAAP earnings multiple. Jan 28, 2024
What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change?
Image: A screenshot of the discounted cash-flow learning tool for individual investors. So you noticed a fair value estimate changed, and you weren’t sure why? This article is for you. Nov 15, 2023
Cisco Puts Up Record Q1 FY 2024 Results, Outlook Hindered By Order Slowdown
Image Source: Cisco. On November 15, Cisco Systems reported strong first quarter results for its fiscal 2024, but the company surprisingly lowered its outlook for the remainder of its fiscal year on a slowdown in new orders. We’re not rushing to judgement of the company, but the revision was rather sizable, and we’ll be taking a close look at our valuation model following the report. We continue to be fans of Cisco’s intent to purchase Splunk, and there may have been some hiccups in the sales cycle as the firm works to close this strategic deal. For now, we’re giving the firm the benefit of the doubt that things will improve in the back half of its fiscal 2024. Cisco remains an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Oct 22, 2023
There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing! Sep 22, 2023
Cisco Buys Splunk
Image Source: Brandon Leon. Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Cisco is all about growing its recurring revenue base these days, and its announcement that it will buy Splunk on September 21 will not only help in a big way towards that goal, but the deal will also position Cisco for tremendous opportunities in the booming market that has become artificial intelligence [AI]. That said, some investors were not fans of the purchase price – some $28 billion in cash – but we think the price is fair and strategically, there’s nothing wrong with adding to the fold an asset-light, recurring-revenue business that has the foundation to be a key long-term player in AI. We’ll be taking a close look at our valuation model on Cisco as we further digest this proposed transaction, but for now, we’re comfortable with our $53 per-share fair value estimate of the networking giant. Jan 4, 2023
Adobe Acrobat Pro Prices Up 33%; Price Tag of Figma Deal Remains Overhang on Shares
Image: Adobe's long-term market opportunity is huge. Image Source: Adobe. Adobe recently announced a rather large acquisition of rival Figma, and while the price tag is rather steep, we think the deal makes sense strategically. Price increases across Adobe’s suite of products have been impressive, and we estimate the latest price increase at Acrobat Pro to be ~33%, which is a huge year-over-year delta. Given the high switching costs, we think many consumers will have to eat the price increase. Adobe’s shares trade at a lofty earnings multiple, but it remains one of the best-positioned software stocks in this tumultuous economic environment. A growing recurring (subscription) book of business, considerable operating cash flow growth, and a strong capital structure with investment-grade credit ratings are a few things we like most about Adobe. The high end of our fair value estimate range of Adobe stands at $394 per share. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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