Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 19, 2024

Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.

Mar 21, 2024

Pfizer 6% Dividend Yield Speaks of Considerable Risk, Free Cash Flow Coming Up Short
Image: Pfizer’s shares have been under considerable pressure the past few years. Though we are positive on Pfizer’s turnaround, its Dividend Cushion ratio of 0.3 is not to be taken lightly (any ratio below 1 indicates heightened risk of a dividend cut). Income-oriented investors seeking a turnaround story may be interested in Pfizer, but we’re staying on the sidelines. We’ll continue to monitor developments at the pharma giant, especially as patents on several of its major drugs approach expiration. Shares yield ~6% at the time of this writing.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Feb 11, 2024

Eli Lilly’s Shares Have More Than Doubled During the Past 52 Weeks
Image: Eli Lilly’s shares have been on a tear these past few years. On February 6, Eli Lilly reported excellent fourth-quarter results that showed revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expectations. The company’s fourth-quarter results were bolstered by sales of diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro, which saw sales in the quarter leap to ~$2.2 billion from ~$279 million in the year ago period. We continue to be in awe of the sales momentum behind GLP-1 receptor agonists, and the opportunity continues to be robust, despite already rapid sales acceleration. Though Eli Lilly trades at a premium to the high end of our fair value estimate range, we may be low in our expectations of the company’s ability to tap this lucrative market in the longer run, and shares may still be attractive to the risk-seeking aggressive growth investor.

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

May 23, 2023

Call Me Unconcerned
Image: Large cap growth has dominated returns the past five years. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to have significant exposure to this area. We’re taking it slow this time of year. With the area of large cap growth nearly doubling since the beginning of 2018, trouncing the return of the broader market, dividend growth strategies, the area of small cap value and general REIT indices, it’s just hard to find much wrong with staying pat. The proliferation of artificial intelligence will likely propel big cap tech and large cap growth to new highs, while small cap value may continue to be weighed down by the banks--and dividend-oriented strategies may face continued pressure from rising interest rates and tired real estate markets. Things were a bit murky during 2022, but thanks for keeping the faith.

May 22, 2023

Nice! -- NASDAQ-100 Follows Through on Breakout
Image: NASDAQ-100 breaks through August 2022 resistance.

Feb 8, 2023

Net-Cash-Rich Vertex Pharma’s Lucrative Cystic Fibrosis Franchise Continues to Power Performance
Image Source: Vertex Pharma. We’re huge fans of Vertex Pharma. We love its net-cash-rich balance sheet, strong free-cash-flow generating capacity and lucrative and established CF franchise. We also like its long-term potential in CRISPR gene-editing technology and pain management alternatives to opioids and believe the company has other opportunities that may eventually reach commercialization across its pipeline. Our fair value estimate of Vertex Pharma stands at $320 per share, and we continue like the company as our primary biotech exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!