Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Feb 29, 2024

3 Catalysts for Apple’s Stock
Image: Apple’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2023. We see three positive catalysts on the horizon for Apple. First, Apple is now shifting resources from its electric car endeavor to work on generative artificial intelligence [AI]. Though an Apple Car would have been a nice deliverable later this decade, we like the move, as it relates to future iterations of the iPhone, which will likely have varying levels of AI features. This should drive a meaningful upgrade cycle across its installed base of iPhones. Second, we think Apple’s Vision Pro is another revenue driver, and recent reports indicate that demand has been higher than expected. Third, we think the Apple Watch X, the next iteration of its wearables line-up that will likely have features to measure blood pressure adn detect sleep apnea, will also drive a lot of upgrades across its installed base, in our view.

Jan 6, 2024

In the News: Apple, Nvidia, ANSYS
The first week of trading in the new year wasn't very welcome, but we think it is far too early to draw any conclusions about how the rest of the year will be. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ faced selling pressure in the first week due in part to investors waiting until the new year to book the huge gains garnered during 2023. The market continues to digest critical employment data, as it watches movements in the 10-year Treasury closely, a key benchmark rate for asset pricing that now stands just north of 4%. Many bulls are saying 2024 may be a difficult year after the worst start in the S&P 500 for a new year since 2008, but we remain bullish on our positioning in the newsletter portfolios.

Dec 19, 2023

In the News: Google, McDonald’s, Costco, Apple
Image: McDonald’s has released a new beverage concept, and it looks to be a hit. Image Source: CosMcs. The market continues to ebb and flow with the latest Federal Reserve commentary, but we continue to be fans of the strong foundation that is the U.S. employment market and the great promise of artificial intelligence [AI] as key themes for 2024. We're huge fans of the net-cash-rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses found in big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. We expect these two areas to continue to lead the markets higher, if not in 2024, through the better part of this decade. Let's take a look at some of the latest news at Alphabet, McDonald's, Costco, and Apple.

Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Nov 3, 2021

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run
“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached during 2021. Though traditional valuation multiples may seem stretched by most measures, many market bellwethers have huge net cash positions and tremendous free cash flow growth potential. We expect the equity markets to continue to be led by large cap growth.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jun 1, 2020

June Dividend Growth Newsletter & Intrinsic Value Investing
"But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] "attractive"? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: "value" and "growth,"...We view that as fuzzy thinking...Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term "value investing" is redundant." -- Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992

Jul 2, 2017

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30
Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson's prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members.

May 4, 2017

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing.