Member LoginDividend CushionValue Trap |
Valuentum
Reports
Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for
any changes.
Latest
Valuentum Commentary
Apr 4, 2025
Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months. Mar 31, 2025
Lululemon Continues to Execute on Its Growth Strategy
Image Source: TradingView. Lululemon ended 2024 with $2.0 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while inventories increased by 9%, to $1.4 billion at the end of the year. For 2025, Lululemon expects net revenue in the range of $11.15-$11.3 billion, representing growth of 5%-7%, or 7%-8%, excluding the 53rd week of 2024. Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $14.95-$15.15 for the year, assuming a tax rate of approximately 30%. The company continues to execute on its Power of Three x2 growth plan calling for the doubling of the business from 2021 net revenue of $6.25 billion to $12.5 billion by 2026. Dec 8, 2024
Lululemon’s International Business Powers Results, Tweaks 2024 Guidance
Image Source: Lululemon. For fiscal 2024, Lululemon now expects net revenue in the range of $10.452-$10.487 billion (was $10.375-$10.475 billion), representing growth of 9%, or 7% when excluding the extra week in 2024. The outlook was above the consensus forecast of $10.43 billion. Its diluted earnings per share is now expected in the range of $14.08-$14.16 (was $13.95-$14.15 per share) for the year. Thanks in part to strength of its International business, Lululemon’s Power of Three x2, which calls for a doubling of net revenue by 2026 from 2021 levels, to $12.5 billion, remains in the ballpark. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $400 per share. Dec 5, 2024
Foot Locker Talks of a More Promotional Environment, Softening Consumer Spending
Image Source: Foot Locker. Looking to all of 2024, Foot Locker now expects sales growth to be -1.5% to -1% from -1% to +1% previously and comparable store sales growth of 1%-1.5%, down from the prior range of 1%-3%. It also lowered its EBIT margin outlook for the full year 2024 to the range of 2.3%-2.5% from 2.8%-3.2% previously. Non-GAAP earnings per share for the year is now targeted in the range of $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70 previously. Given the disappointing outlook, we’re viewing Foot Locker as a put option idea candidate. Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios. Aug 30, 2024
Lululemon Lowers 2024 Outlook
Image: Lululemon’s shares have come under pressure recently. Looking to 2024, Lululemon now expects net revenue in the range of $10.375-$10.475 billion, representing growth of 8%-9%, below consensus numbers and lower than its initial guidance of $10.7-$10.8 billion. Diluted earnings per share is now expected to be in the range of $13.95-$14.15 for the year, down from previous guidance of $14.27-$14.47. We have no plans to add Lululemon to any newsletter portfolio. Aug 25, 2024
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the site. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Jun 28, 2024
Nike’s Revenue Under Pressure
Image: Nike’s shares have languished of late, and a comeback will take some time. Nike retains one of the strongest brand names across our coverage universe, and customer loyalty remains a key attribute to a bull case for shares. However, the company’s fiscal 2025 will be challenging, with considerable weakness during the first quarter of fiscal 2025. We like Nike’s business model, but we remain on the sidelines as we adjust our valuation model to reflect the lower-than-expected fiscal 2025 performance. Jun 10, 2024
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on
this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any
security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s
accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or
omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts
no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a
registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees,
and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
|