Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 21, 2024

Pfizer 6% Dividend Yield Speaks of Considerable Risk, Free Cash Flow Coming Up Short
Image: Pfizer’s shares have been under considerable pressure the past few years. Though we are positive on Pfizer’s turnaround, its Dividend Cushion ratio of 0.3 is not to be taken lightly (any ratio below 1 indicates heightened risk of a dividend cut). Income-oriented investors seeking a turnaround story may be interested in Pfizer, but we’re staying on the sidelines. We’ll continue to monitor developments at the pharma giant, especially as patents on several of its major drugs approach expiration. Shares yield ~6% at the time of this writing.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Feb 11, 2024

Eli Lilly’s Shares Have More Than Doubled During the Past 52 Weeks
Image: Eli Lilly’s shares have been on a tear these past few years. On February 6, Eli Lilly reported excellent fourth-quarter results that showed revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expectations. The company’s fourth-quarter results were bolstered by sales of diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro, which saw sales in the quarter leap to ~$2.2 billion from ~$279 million in the year ago period. We continue to be in awe of the sales momentum behind GLP-1 receptor agonists, and the opportunity continues to be robust, despite already rapid sales acceleration. Though Eli Lilly trades at a premium to the high end of our fair value estimate range, we may be low in our expectations of the company’s ability to tap this lucrative market in the longer run, and shares may still be attractive to the risk-seeking aggressive growth investor.

Jan 23, 2024

Earnings Roundup: LMT, PG, MMM, GE, JNJ, VZ
Lockheed Martin's backlog hits a new high. Procter & Gamble's gross margin surprises to the upside. 3M's bottom-line outlook for 2024 came in lower than expectations. We're excited about GE's split into two companies this year and are positive on GE Aerospace. Johnson & Johnson reaffirmed its outlook for 2024, while Verizon's free cash flow continues to improve.

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Aug 28, 2023

Our Reports on Stocks in the Industrial Leaders Industry
Our reports on stocks in the Industrial Leaders industry can be found in this article. Reports include: MMM, DHR, GE, HON, BA, GD, LMT, NOC, RTX, WM, RSG, CAT, DE, CNI, CSX, UNP, FDX, UPS, FAST, APH, GLW, TEL, ETN, ITW, EMR, ROP, PH.

May 1, 2023

Honeywell Raises Outlook for 2023; Backlog Remains Strong
Image: Honeywell continues to experience strong fundamental momentum across the board. Image Source: Honeywell. We liked Honeywell’s first-quarter 2023 report, released April 27, and its raised outlook for 2023. We remain huge fans of Honeywell’s ~2.1% dividend yield, and we support Honeywell’s COO Vimal Kapur who will succeed Darius Adamczyk as CEO on June 1, 2023. Our fair value estimate for Honeywell remains $210 per share. With shares trading at ~$200 at the time of this writing, there’s still valuation upside to the Honeywell story, in our view.

Apr 28, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 28
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.