Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 24, 2024

Earnings Roundup: NFLX, ASML, T, ABT
Image: Netflix’s substantially improved free cash flow has made it a clear winner in the streaming wars. Image Source: Netflix. Netflix has won the streaming wars and continues to throw off material free cash flow as it lands incremental deals, the latest for WWE Raw. ASML is one of the most prolific innovators in the semiconductor industry, and its quarterly net bookings in the fourth quarter reveal an exciting future, even as revenue is forecast to be flat in 2024. AT&T's earnings outlook for 2024 disappointed, and rising capital spending will pressure free cash flow in 2024. Dividend King Abbott Labs continues to drive strong organic growth rates, exclusive of COVID-19 related weakness, and we expect years of future dividend growth at the company.

Nov 3, 2021

Newmont’s Third Quarter Earnings Disappoints Though Management Remains Very Shareholder Friendly
Image Shown: Though Newmont Corporation’s third quarter earnings disappointed, the gold miner remains very shareholder friendly. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. One of our favorite mining plays is the gold miner Newmont Corporation, which has producing assets around the world including in Australia, Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Ghana, Mexico, Peru, Suriname, Canada, and the US. Newmont has a robust development pipeline in those countries via new producing mines and expansion projects (roughly 88% of Newmont’s reserves are in the Americas and Australia), along with potential upside in Japan, Ethiopia, Colombia, and elsewhere. The company’s management team is incredibly shareholder friendly (its quarterly payout has grown from $0.14 per share in 2019 to $0.55 per share currently and the firm is actively buying back its stock), and Newmont’s free cash flow generating abilities are impressive. We like Newmont as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. As of this writing, shares of NEM yield a nice ~4.1%.

Oct 30, 2020

Newmont Posts a Stellar Earnings Report, Raises Dividend
Image Shown: An overview of Newmont Corporation’s recent accomplishments. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Shares of Newmont Corp are included in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio because we view its long-term dividend growth trajectory quite favorably, and the gold miner has not disappointed. At the start of 2020, Newmont significantly increased its quarterly dividend. Due to a combination of its enlarged dividend, very promising growth outlook, sizable expected synergies from its 2019 acquisition of Goldcorp, and its stellar cash flow profile, we added shares of NEM as a holding to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on January 13, 2020.

Sep 11, 2020

Our Thoughts on Newmont’s Bright Outlook
Image Shown: Newmont Corporation’s gold reserves are extensive and should support the gold miner’s ability to generate meaningful cash flows over the years and decades to come. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – August 2020 IR Presentation. As of this writing, shares of NEM yield ~1.5% on a forward-looking basis, and we view its forward-looking dividend coverage as rock-solid given Newmont has a Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.2, earning the firm an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Safety rating. In our view, Newmont offers investors a combination of income growth and capital appreciation upside, and we continue to like Newmont as a holding with a modest weighting in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Our Dividend Cushion ratio and Dividend Safety rating factors in our expectations that Newmont will steadily grow its per share dividend over the coming years.

Aug 14, 2020

Our Thoughts on Chevron Buying Noble Energy
Image Shown: An overview of Chevron Corporation’s all-stock acquisition of Noble Energy Inc that was announced in July 2020. Image Source: Chevron Corporation – July 2020 Noble Energy Acquisition Presentation. On July 20, Chevron Corp announced it was acquiring Noble Energy through a $5.0 billion all-stock transaction, or $13.0 billion when factoring in net debt and the book value of non-controlling interests. Shareholders of Noble Energy will receive approximately 0.12 share of Chevron for each share of Noble Energy. At the time the deal was announced, shareholders of NBL were receiving a ~12% premium based on the ten-day average closing stock prices. Chevron intends to issue ~58 million shares to cover the deal, keeping in mind the firm had approximately 1.85 billion shares outstanding on a weighted-average diluted basis as of the second quarter of 2020. The deal is expected to close during the fourth quarter of this year and is forecasted to generate $0.3 billion in annualized run-rate cost synergies one year after closing.

Aug 7, 2020

Newmont Surges Higher, Posts Solid Earnings Report
Image Shown: Newmont Corporation’s operational and financial performance has held up well in the face of the pandemic, relatively speaking. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. We continue to like shares of Newmont as a holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and given the impressive strength seen with gold prices this year, the company’s outlook is quite bright. If Newmont continues to allow cash to build up on its balance sheet, its ability to push through meaningful per-share dividend increases would improve significantly. Newmont remains our favorite miner.

Jul 8, 2020

Freeport-McMoRan’s Outlook Improves Considerably
Image Source: Freeport-McMoRan Inc – February 2020 IR Presentation. Global copper, gold, and molybdenum miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc suspended its quarterly common dividend in March 2020 and provided a revised outlook for the full-year in April 2020 due to the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic hampering both commodity prices and its operational performance. One of those hurdles involved the Peruvian government imposing restrictions on its Cerro Verde mine in March 2020 (as part of COVID-19 containment efforts), a copper mine that Freeport-McMoRan owns a ~54% stake in. Another hurdle involved the collapse in commodity prices earlier this year (though gold prices have held up quite well in 2020). First, let us provide some background before highlighting why Freeport-McMoRan’s outlook has recently improved considerably.

Jun 16, 2020

Exxon Mobil Puts on a Brave Face
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – November 2019 Guyana IR Presentation. Near-term oil prices and most importantly, the oil price futures curve, have improved materially since just a couple of months ago when it looked like the sky was falling. For the first time ever, WTI turned negative in April 2020 for physical deliveries due May 2020 of light sweet oil to Cushing, Oklahoma, as storage options were limited (and arguably, many speculators had jumped into the market not fully aware of the risks they were taking on). Exxon Mobil Corp has seen its share price recover considerably since the drop, though we caution that management’s commitment to the dividend will prove a hard task if things do not improve materially in the short-term. As of this writing, near-term futures for WTI and its international counterpart Brent are trading near $40 per barrel. In the face of COVID-19, low raw energy resource prices (Exxon Mobil’s upstream operations form its largest single business segment), and subdued demand for refined petroleum and petrochemical products (from gasoline to plastics) have significantly weakened Exxon Mobil’s cash flow profile. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has shaken energy markets to their core in ways we have not seen ever before. Shares of XOM yield ~7.4% as of this writing. We give Exxon Mobil a Dividend Cushion ratio at 0.2, though its Dividend Safety rating is “GOOD” given the company’s ability to tap capital markets, especially debt markets as the oil giant carries high quality “A-rated” investment grade credit ratings. There is a limit to how much debt Exxon Mobil can take on to cover its dividend obligations, however, which we will cover in greater detail in this article.

Jun 4, 2020

BHP Benefiting from an Industrial Rebound in China
Image Source: BHP Group – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report. In recent months, iron ore futures prices have surged higher due to an ongoing recovery in China’s industrial sector and supply concerns in Brazil, which has culminated into the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s September 2020 iron ore deliveries hitting a record high since the futures contract was first launched in 2013. Pivoting to copper, three-month copper futures prices based on trading activity on the London Metals Exchange have also perked up on the back of an apparent recovery in Chinese economic activity. Rising metals prices bodes well for major and minor miners around the globe, including BHP Group.

May 21, 2020

Southern Copper’s Payout Is Not That Healthy
Image Shown: An overview of Southern Copper’s core operations in Mexico and Peru. Image Source: Southern Copper Corporation – May 2019 IR Presentation. Copper (symbol Cu, atomic number 29) is an essential building block of modern civilization as it is used as a conductor for heat and electricity. Electrical components, utility-scale electrical transmission systems, residential and commercial heating appliances, electric vehicles, and much more all rely on copper products (electromagnets, heat exchangers, heat sinks, integrated circuits, printed circuits, copper wiring, and copper fittings are all examples of products that contain copper). The largest consumer of copper is China, accounting for roughly half of global demand making the Middle Kingdom an essential part of the copper supply chain. On the other end of the supply chain, it’s companies like Southern Copper Corp that develop and operate the copper mines in major producing regions that enable global supply to meet demand. Copper plays an essential role in the transportation, industrial, consumer goods, utilities, and construction industries/sectors. The pace of construction activity in China has an outsize impact on global copper prices.