Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 25, 2021

ALERT: Bull Raids, Short Squeezes and Highly Unusual Market Activity
Image: Shares of GameStop have been on an irrationally wild ride recently driven by what looks to have been an orchestrated and highly unethical (and perhaps illegal) short squeeze on the stock. According to some reports, during the pre-market session January 25, GameStop’s shares were up ~80%, and turned red during the trading session, with no fundamental news.In late 2018, Valuentum published Value Trap, a book that warned to all that would heed its warning that a collapse in the traditional quant value factor was coming and that excessive volatility in the markets caused by price-agnostic trading--or those that aren’t paying attention to fair value estimate calculations--would only build and build to eventually reach extreme and irrational levels. The book, while hugely successful winning award after award, was largely ignored by the media, despite our best efforts to get the word out. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost.

Jan 24, 2021

Following Up on Leading Semiconductor Equipment Supplier ASML Holding N.V.
Image Source: ASML Holding NV – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. Shares of Netherlands-based ASML Holding N.V., which supplies lithography systems and services to the semiconductor industry, have done incredibly well since we published our note, "ASML Holding Is an Impressive Enterprise with a Pristine Balance Sheet and Rock-Solid Growth Trajectory" article back on April 8, 2020. From April 8 to January 22, shares of ASML more than doubled. We strongly encourage members that have not done so to check out that article, as we laid out how ASML Holding’s lithography systems are an essential part of the semiconductor industry along with our reasoning behind why we view the company’s long-term outlook favorably. We continue to be fans of ASML Holding’s business model. As a leader in an industry supported by numerous secular growth tailwinds (secular trends, such as the rise of AI and cloud-computing, support the outlook for semiconductor demand which in turn supports the outlook for the cutting edge lithography systems used to make these semiconductors), ASML Holding is poised to continue to generate strong revenue growth while maintaining its pricing power.

Jan 24, 2021

Best Idea Vertex Pharma Is an Intriguing Biotech Play
Image Shown: A snapshot of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc’s approved therapeutic offerings and its drug pipeline. Image Source: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc – January 2021 IR Presentation. Vertex’s market leading position in the cystic fibrosis ('CF') therapeutics space underpins our expectations that its free cash flow will grow at a brisk pace going forward (supported by the potential for the company to expand into new markets and the potential to grow the application of its CF portfolio). We also like Vertex’s exposure to gene therapies via its partnership with CRISPR Therapeutics. Vertex’s existing drug pipeline is decent, and the biotech has the ability to use its net cash position to bulk up its drug pipeline even further if needed (through a strategic partnership, acquisition, purchase of drug development rights, etc.). Though we generally don't get too excited about biotech plays given their speculative nature, the difficulty in predicting the success of drugs in their pipeline, and the potential for shareholder dilution via new equity issuance, Vertex’s financial position is rock-solid, its outlook is bright, and we like having exposure to the company in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Jan 22, 2021

IBM Is Still A Disappointment
We’ve never liked IBM. The company has all the attributes of a stock that we'd prefer to stay as far away from as possible.

Jan 22, 2021

We Expect Netflix to Turn Into a Free Cash Flow Generating Machine
Image Shown: Netflix Inc’s global paid subscriber base is expected to keep growing at a decent clip going forward, though at a slower pace than in the recent past. Image Source: Netflix Inc – Shareholder Letter covering its fourth quarter and full-year earnings in 2020. The video streaming services industry will continue to experience strong subscriber growth in 2021, and we see room for a number of winners in the space. Original content and scale are essential to remaining relevant, and competitive headwinds are growing as companies seek to replicate the success of Netflix. We think Netflix will eventually turn into a free-cash-flow generating machine, but at the moment, we're big fans of "new" streaming rival Disney and include the latter in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Disney is the top competitive threat to Netflix, in our view.

Jan 21, 2021

UnitedHealth Group Is a Rock-Solid Dividend Growth Opportunity
Image Shown: Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc, which we added to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio back on November 27, continue to climb higher. The top end of our fair value estimate for UnitedHealth Group sits at $401 per share. On January 20, UnitedHealth Group issued fourth quarter and full-year results for 2020 that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The healthcare giant reported a 6% annual increase in its GAAP revenues in 2020, with its ‘Premiums,’ ‘Products’ and ‘Services’ sales all reporting meaningful increases. Its GAAP earnings from operations grew by 14% annually in 2020, though we caution there is some noise due to the deferral of certain medical procedures, a result of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. UnitedHealth Group is an exciting healthcare play with substantial dividend growth upside. As global health authorities continue to work toward getting the pandemic under control, a process aided by the ongoing distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, the outlook for the healthcare sector and global economy at-large should continue to improve going forward. We like having exposure to UnitedHealth Group in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Jan 19, 2021

Chipotle, Domino's Continue to Deliver for Shareholders
Image Shown: Domino’s Pizza Inc aims to grow its market share in the US by leaning heavily on its delivery and digital operations, a realm the firm has significant competitive advantages in, as compared to leaning on carryout operations at physical stores. Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – January 2021 IR Presentation. In the restaurant industry, one thing the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has made clear is that having drive thru operations, a strong online presence and respectable delivery services will be key to meeting consumer demand going forward. Physical restaurant locations that rely on indoor dinning will become relevant once again when the pandemic is contained, something the ongoing distribution of COVID-19 vaccines should help accomplish, but the use of food/beverage delivery services in a post-pandemic world will likely be greater than that in the pre-pandemic world (both in terms of number of households and the number of times households that use such services in any given period). Omni-channel selling capabilities are essential not just for the retail space but for restaurants as well, particularly fast-causal operations. Placing a greater emphasis on digital marketing campaigns will be essential, too, given the highly targeted nature of these offerings and the wide reach such campaigns generally have. With that in mind, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc and Domino’s Pizza are two restaurants with stellar omni-channel selling capabilities that have made considerable upgrades to their digital operations during the past few years.

Jan 15, 2021

Walgreens Begins to Recover
Image Shown: Shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc are beginning to recover. Shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance are on the rise after the company recently posted a solid earnings report while also reaching a big divestment deal. As we recently covered, Walgreens is divesting most of its European-focused wholesale pharmaceutical distribution business to AmerisourceBergen. Please note Walgreens has a material strategic stake in AmerisourceBergen’s equity which will grow in terms of total shares once the divestment closes. That said, competitive headwinds are growing for Walgreens and the pharmacy space more broadly as Amazon recently launched its own online pharmacy. We are keeping an eye on the space.

Jan 15, 2021

Steris Ties the Knot with Cantel Medical
Image Shown: Cantel Medical Corp is getting bought out by Steris PLC through a cash-and-stock deal. The image up above highlights Cantel Medical’s promising long-term growth outlook, though its performance in 2020 was subdued due to headwinds created by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. In our view, Steris was attracted to Cantel Medical’s improving outlook (the latter started to stage an impressive rebound in the second half of calendar year 2020) and the ability for the combined firm to generate substantial synergies. Image Source: Cantel Medical Corp – December 2020 IR Presentation. On January 12, Steris PLC announced it had reached an agreement with Cantel Medical to buy the company through a cash-and-stock deal worth ~$3.6 billion (~$4.6 billion when including the assumption of debt and convertible notes) that valued CMD at $84.66 per share based on the closing price of STE on January 11. The deal includes $16.93 in cash and 0.33787 share of STE for each share of CMD. Steris is heavily focused on sterilization products for hospitals and laboratories (it also provides related services). The company intends to fund the cash component of its deal for Cantel Medical with new debt issuance and committed bridge financing, which will also be used to refinance most of Cantel Medical’s existing debt. Shares of Cantel Medical have advanced ~38% (as of the end of normal trading hours January 13) from when we first wrote about the idea back in early December 2020. Even before the acquisition was announced, investors started to warm back up to the company due to expectations that the headwinds that held the firm back last year would start to dissipate this year. In our view, Steris’ acquisition of Cantel Medical is highly complementary. It appears Steris was optimistic that Cantel Medical’s long-term growth outlook remained bright even though the firm had a rough 2020.

Jan 13, 2021

Surveying the Clean Energy Landscape for Ideas
Image Source: American Electric Power Company Inc (AEP) – January 2021 IR Presentation.  There’s a lot of interest in clean energy these days! Though our favorite ideas within a portfolio context are always the ideas within the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and the Exclusive publication, we also highlight interesting ideas via our articles that we publish on our website. In this article, let’s dig deep into the clean energy space. We’ll talk more about 1) Ameresco (AMRC), one of the green energy ideas we highlighted in the past that has performed incredibly well, 2) NextEra (NEE), a large utility “family” to keep an eye on (a utility firm and a merchant power spinoff), 3) First Solar (FSLR), a US-based manufacturer of solar panels, and 4) various alternative fuel and power storage companies, including Clean Energy Fuels Corp (CLNE) and Gevo Inc (GEVO). The recently-passed omnibus spending package in the US included significant funds to support various alternative and renewable energy activities. For example, the production tax credit for wind farms was extended for one year while the investment tax credit for solar plants was extended by two years. This is a major benefit for both manufacturers of solar modules and wind turbines along with the utility firms (XLU) that would own/operate such assets. Looking ahead, we expect that the US federal government will be very accommodative toward the green energy space as President-elect Biden and the incoming US Congress (which will be controlled by the Democratic Party) will likely step up federal investments in the space (such as subsidies, low or no interest loans, favorable procurement contracts, and other considerations). The share prices of various solar companies are on the rise as witnessed through the performance of funds such as Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) surging higher of late, while the impressive price performance of iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) showcases the widespread nature of investor excitement toward almost all green energy oriented firms. Other securities in this realm include ALPS Clean Energy ETF (ACES) and SPDR S&P Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG).