Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 17, 2020

Turbulent Fiscal Fourth Quarter Aside, Oracle Paints a Promising Outlook for Fiscal 2021
Image Source: Oracle Corporation – Oracle Database Update September 2019 Presentation. On June 16, Oracle Corp reported fourth quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 31, 2020) that beat consensus bottom-line estimates and missed consensus top-line estimates, though there is some noise given the turbulence created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Additionally, Oracle declared a $0.24 per share quarterly dividend that is slated to get paid out in July, which was flat on a sequential basis. Shares of ORCL yield ~1.8% as of this writing, and we continue to like the idea as a holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. While shares of ORCL sold off on June 17, management painted a more optimistic outlook for the firm’s fiscal 2021 performance than initial trading action suggests.

Jun 15, 2020

Reviewing Oracle’s Cloud Ambitions Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings Report
Image Shown: Oracle Corp is seeking to take market share in the clouding computing space from Microsoft Corp and Amazon. Image Source: Oracle Corporation – September 2019 Financial Analyst Meeting. Oracle Corp is included as a holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We like the firm’s high quality cash flow profile as that lends support to its Dividend Safety rating, which sits at “GOOD,” and should its Dividend Cushion ratio of 2.7 tick up slightly, Oracle would be in a position to earn an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Safety rating. Shares of ORCL yield ~1.8% as of this writing, and Oracle’s Dividend Growth rating sits at “EXCELLENT” given its promising payout growth trajectory. Please note our Dividend Cushion ratio and Dividend Safety rating are forward-looking, and we model in strong double-digit per share payout growth through the mid-2020s, though the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic may result in management being more cautious in the near-term.

Jun 11, 2020

*ALERT* Newsletter Portfolio Changes
Image: The markets are selling off rather aggressively today, June 11, but it is important to keep things in context. Above, the NASDAQ 100 Index just hit all-time highs recently, and some profit taking is to be expected. Though it will make for scary headlines, the move today isn't out of the ordinary after such a strong run higher. We're making a couple tweaks to the simulated newsletter portfolios today. It has been one of the strongest bull markets we've ever seen off the March 23 bottom, and while we continue to be optimistic about some of our favorite ideas, we are now re-positioning the newsletter portfolios after taking advantage of the surge.

May 8, 2020

ICYMI: Never Been More Bullish Even as Buffett Dumps Airlines
Image Source: IATA. Data Source: McKinsey & Company (IATA). Airlines haven’t been able to earn their estimated cost of capital for as long as we can remember. There have been hundreds of airline bankruptcies since deregulation in 1978. The news may be scary in coming months, and market volatility may elevate again, but we’ve never been more bullish on the longer run. The biggest advantage of an individual investor is something called time horizon arbitrage. As many professionals continue to fear a break below the March 23 lows, we’re focused on how this market absorbs the tremendous and unprecedented stimulus in the coming months and what that means for nominal equity prices in the longer run. It may not happen this month or this year, but we expect lift off as investors race to preserve purchasing power! Our favorite ideas for a portfolio setting remain in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Our favorite brand new ideas, released each month, are included in the Exclusive publication.

May 4, 2020

COVID-19 Idea Apple Raises Dividend, Continues With Massive Share Repurchases
Image Shown: Shares of Apple Inc have sharply rebounded since falling precipitously from the start of 2020 through March, keeping in mind we removed shares of AAPL from our newsletter portfolios back on January 13, 2020 (link here), when shares of Apple were trading well over $300 per share. We announced on March 17, 2020, that we like Apple as a way to ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Apple reported earnings for its second quarter of fiscal 2020 (period ended March 28, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company also pushed through a 6% sequential increase in its quarterly payout, bringing it up to $0.82 per share or $3.28 per share on an annualized basis. At the new payout rate, shares of AAPL yield ~1.1% on a forward-looking basis as of this writing. We highlighted Apple as a COVID-19 idea back on March 17 (article here) considering its enormous net cash balance and strong cash flow profile provides the firm with the strength to emerge on the other side of the pandemic with its financials intact. Given its large net cash position, Apple increased its share buyback authority by $50.0 billion in conjunction with its latest earnings report.

Jan 28, 2020

Intel Roars Higher
Image Shown: Intel Corporation, a top weighted holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and a medium weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, posted a tremendous fourth quarter report for fiscal 2019 on January 23. Shares of INTC marched meaningfully higher on January 24. Image Source: Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings IR Presentation. A top weighted holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and medium weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter, Intel Corp posted blowout earnings on January 23. Full year revenue for fiscal 2019 hit a record of $72.0 billion on a GAAP basis, up 2% year-over-year, while GAAP diluted EPS rose by 5% to $4.71 (on a non-GAAP basis, diluted EPS was up 6% year-over-year, hitting $4.87). Intel beat both top- and bottom-line consensus estimates and guided for a strong fiscal 2020. Shares of INTC now yield ~1.9% on a forward-looking basis as of this writing after management pushed through a 5% sequential dividend increase in conjunction with the record earnings report.

Jan 13, 2020

Intel Has Performed Well Since Acquiring Mobileye
Image Shown: Intel Corporation (represented by the blue line in the graph above), a long time holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, has substantially outperformed the NASDAQ 100 index (black line) and the S&P 500 index (orange line) since the period just before announcing its ~$15 billion deal to acquire Mobileye in March 2017, before taking dividends into consideration (given that Intel pays out a decent dividend, that wouldn’t change this picture materially). We continue to like Intel in both our newsletter portfolios and its ~2.1% yield as of this writing provides investors with a nice income stream. Intel’s dividend will likely continue to experience strong per share growth over the coming years, in our view, a growth trajectory that’s well supported by Intel’s 2.1x Dividend Cushion ratio.

Sep 15, 2019

Semiconductors Broadcom and Cree Push Forward in an Uncertain Environment
Image Source: Broadcom Inc -- IR Presentation. While the free cash flow outlooks for AVGO and CREE are relatively strong, weakening business confidence and investment around the world and mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and China (short-term tariff reprieves aside) create monstrous headwinds that the semiconductor industry can only do so much to mitigate. We don’t include many semiconductors in our portfolios given how notoriously difficult the space is to play. As things stand today, Intel is included in both our Dividend Growth Newsletter and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolios, and we continue to like INTC as our way to gain exposure to secular growth trends within the semiconductor space.

Aug 26, 2019

The Valuentum Team Talks Powell Speech and Threat of Global Recession
Last week, China issued retaliatory tariffs on US goods, and Trump responded in kind, escalating trade tensions. Caught in the middle of this US-China trade war is the Fed, however. Let’s sit down with the Valuentum team and kick things off with our thoughts on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, Challenges for Monetary Policy issued August 23 in Jackson Hole, WY.

Aug 23, 2019

Trump "Tweet Storm" Reveals Increased Frustration with Fed, China
Markets are starting to look toppy.