Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 26, 2021

Chipotle Could Double the Number of Restaurants in the Long Run
Image Source: Valuentum. Chipotle’s first-quarter results were solid, and we’re sticking with the idea in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The company’s long-term total restaurant opportunity is tremendous, and we view its digital initiatives as top-notch as it continues to grow comparable store sales nicely. With one of the most innovative CEOs at the helm, Chipotle’s shares continue to be enticing, in our view.

Apr 8, 2021

The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."

Mar 10, 2021

Chipotle Improving Its Digital Menu to Support Its E-commerce Growth Runway
Image Shown: Over the past year, shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc have been on an upward tear, supported by the restaurant’s improving omni-channel selling capabilities. Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill surged higher during normal trading hours March 9 after the firm announced it was adding customizable quesadilla offerings to its digital menu in the US and Canada starting March 11. This offering is only available for customers ordering while using Chipotle’s digital platforms (potentially due to the longer preparation times) and will likely require new cooking equipment at the company’s restaurants. The company offers both home delivery and curbside/drive-thru pickup services (including its order ahead and pickup services) through its digital platform. We continue to be huge fans of Chipotle and include the company as an idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Feb 4, 2021

Earnings Roundup: Chipotle, PayPal, Qualcomm
Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc, a top-weighted idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, continued to grow at a brisk pace during the final quarter of 2020. Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Several of the newsletter portfolio ideas recently reported earnings, and we are quite pleased with the performance that our favorite ideas have put up so far this earnings season. Though the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic created significant headwinds for the three companies we cover in this article (Chipotle, PayPal, and Qualcomm), each firm remained incredibly free cash flow positive, highlighting the resilience of their business models. Looking ahead, the outlook for these companies is bright and getting brighter.

Jan 27, 2021

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.

Jan 19, 2021

Chipotle, Domino's Continue to Deliver for Shareholders
Image Shown: Domino’s Pizza Inc aims to grow its market share in the US by leaning heavily on its delivery and digital operations, a realm the firm has significant competitive advantages in, as compared to leaning on carryout operations at physical stores. Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – January 2021 IR Presentation. In the restaurant industry, one thing the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has made clear is that having drive thru operations, a strong online presence and respectable delivery services will be key to meeting consumer demand going forward. Physical restaurant locations that rely on indoor dinning will become relevant once again when the pandemic is contained, something the ongoing distribution of COVID-19 vaccines should help accomplish, but the use of food/beverage delivery services in a post-pandemic world will likely be greater than that in the pre-pandemic world (both in terms of number of households and the number of times households that use such services in any given period). Omni-channel selling capabilities are essential not just for the retail space but for restaurants as well, particularly fast-causal operations. Placing a greater emphasis on digital marketing campaigns will be essential, too, given the highly targeted nature of these offerings and the wide reach such campaigns generally have. With that in mind, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc and Domino’s Pizza are two restaurants with stellar omni-channel selling capabilities that have made considerable upgrades to their digital operations during the past few years.

Jan 12, 2021

ALERT: We’re Still Bullish! Some Portfolio Tweaks
Trust you’re doing great, and hope you are enjoying your membership to Valuentum! We’ve received a number of questions from members during the past several weeks, and we’d like to address them briefly in this note. We will write a follow-up note in the coming days that goes into our broader outlook for 2021 and beyond. However, we want to get these takeaways to you as soon as possible, as our inboxes have been overflowing. If you haven’t read our market/analysis recap for the year 2020, please do so.

Nov 10, 2020

McDonald’s: Holding Up Well During the Pandemic
McDonald’s is without a doubt a fantastic enterprise with a storied history and moaty characteristics. The firm is holding up quite well and has managed to drive innovation to overcome almost every obstacle it has faced in the past. Though there are long-term risks to the dividend payout based on the Dividend Cushion ratio, the company’s credit marks and free cash flow generation are enough for us to be confident in a growing payout for the foreseeable future. Shares are fairly valued at the moment, but dividend growth investors might want to take a hard look at this fast-food behemoth for their portfolios.

Oct 29, 2020

News Brief: We Like Large Cap Growth, Big Cap Tech, and the NASDAQ
Image: Since 2010, a large cap growth ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 150 percentage points (15,000 basis points). Since 2010, a large cap growth ETF has outperformed a small cap value ETF by over 275 percentage points, or 27,500 basis points (image not shown). We expect continued outperformance from companies within the large cap growth bucket. The markets have been see-sawing the past couple weeks as the global economy continues to recover and much of the world awaits the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential election. We think the equity markets have largely factored in the forecasted epidemiology curve with respect to COVID-19, including infection spikes across the world, so recent market volatility has largely been driven more by political/election risk than anything else. To nobody’s surprise, we expect continued volatility heading into and during election week, but we’re also maintaining our above market fair value estimate on the S&P 500 of 3,530-3,920 (the S&P 500 stands at about 3,300 at the moment). Once election week passes, we expect one of the best Santa Claus rallies in years as consumer sentiment improves. As a result of COVID-19, e-commerce proliferation will be more evident during the holiday season this year than ever before. Our newsletter portfolios remain well-positioned, and we continue to like the areas of large cap growth, big cap tech, and the NASDAQ. Our favorite names are those with strong net cash positions and solid expected future free cash flows with competitively advantaged business models that are tied to secular growth tailwinds in industries where many players can win. We’ve continued to point to Facebook, Alphabet, and PayPal as a few of our favorite longs in this environment.