Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 5, 2022

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
It’s easy to lose sight of the tremendous value that a Valuentum subscription provides during down markets, but we’ve been here for you every step of the way. 2019, 2020, and 2021 were fantastic years, and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have delivered in 2022. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is holding up nicely, and ideas within the Exclusive publication continue to boast impressive success rates. Members continue to receive options ideas to bet directionally on the stock market, and the book Value Trap has been true to its efforts, showcasing the ongoing benefits of forward-looking analysis. [Given the change in opinion following the publishing of the August edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter, please be sure to check www.Valuentum.com for Valuentum’s latest.]

Sep 1, 2022

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy
Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he's turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more!

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Jul 20, 2022

UnitedHealth Group Beats Estimates and Once Again Raises Guidance
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc moved higher by ~5% during normal trading hours on July 15 after reporting a stellar earnings update. The health care giant once again raised its full-year earnings guidance for 2022 in conjunction with its latest earnings update. Shares of UNH have held up quite well year-to-date in the face of volatile capital markets. On July 15, UnitedHealth Group reported second quarter 2022 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The health care giant also boosted its non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance to $21.40-$21.90 for 2022, up from $21.20-$21.70 previously, in conjunction with it second quarter earnings update. Please note that this is the second time UnitedHealth Group has increased its earnings guidance for 2022 (it also boosted its full-year forecasts back in April 2022), and we appreciate management’s confidence in UnitedHealth Group’s near term outlook. We include UnitedHealth Group as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and shares of UNH yield ~1.3% as of this writing. At the high end of our fair value estimate range, we assign UnitedHealth Group a fair value estimate of $599 per share, well above where UNH is trading at as of this writing. UnitedHealth Group has a fortress-like balance sheet, “moaty” business characteristics, a bright growth outlook, and is a stellar free cash flow generator.

Jul 11, 2022

Valuentum's Unmatched Product Suite
We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value--net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects.

Jul 4, 2022

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds
"Though I have been clearly wrong on my near-term thesis for inflation-driven earnings expansion, we still did great sorting through investment idea considerations. Through late June, for example, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated 4-5 percentage points of alpha relative to the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY. The simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is down only modestly this year, also performing better than traditional benchmarks. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter is generating “alpha” against comparable benchmarks, and the Exclusive publication continues to deliver, with both capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations generating fantastic success rates. ESG and options-idea generation have also been great. With all this being said, in the long run, I believe nominal earnings will expand rapidly from 2021 levels, which is why I remain bullish on stocks. I believe markets tend to overestimate earnings in the near term and underestimate them in the long run. The intelligent investor knows, too, that the most money is made during recessions and bear markets, where steady reinvestment and dollar cost averaging help to better position portfolios for higher returns over the longer run. The newsletter portfolios are well-positioned for continued “outperformance,” in our view, and while we may make a few tweaks to them, we’re not making any material changes at this time."

Jun 26, 2022

Valuentum's Dividend Growth Strategy 'Outperforming'
Image: The Valuentum Dividend Growth strategy has delivered thus far in 2022. With the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, down 18.1% (negative 18.1%) thus far in 2022 and the S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) down 6.7% (negative 6.7%), the Valuentum dividend growth strategy, as measured by the hypothetical performance of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (as shown above), is down an estimated 4.6% (negative 4.6%) so far in 2022, all on a price-only basis. Though two percentage points better than the S&P High Yield Dividend Dividend Aristocrats Index doesn't seem like much, the large cap tilt of the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio makes such "outperformance" significant and material. The benefits of a dividend growth strategy, in general, have also been on display so far in 2022, with the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio "outperforming" the SPY by an estimated ~13.5 percentage points, on a price-only basis. With the half year mark of 2022 nearing, we wanted to continue to provide updates on the "performance" tracking across a variety of our publications. In case you missed them, please find the year-to-date evaluations of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the Exclusive capital appreciation and short idea considerations, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, as well as our additional options commentary for your convenience. The links are provided as follows. In this article, we'll talk about the "performance" of the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio relative to traditional benchmarks and in the context of modern portfolio theory, though we stress that our dividend growth focus is on long-term income expansion not short-term relative price performance, per se.

Jun 18, 2022

The Stock Market Is Nearing Technical Support Levels
Image: This year has been a difficult one for equity investors, but the selling pressure that has been common in the markets may start to slow as broader indices such as the S&P 500 begin to approach technical support levels. On the S&P 500, we think there is substantial technical support in the 3,200-3,500 range, which to us suggests that further near-term downside may be limited. The S&P 500 closed at 3,674.84 on Friday, June 17, and we think fair value is much higher. What might be a fair value for the S&P 500 today? Well, throwing the 10-year S&P 500 average multiple of 16.9x on 2023 expected earnings numbers of 251.76 gets to a 4,255 mark on the S&P 500, which is above the last closing level of 3,674.84 for the index. Benchmark Treasury rates remain low relative to history, and balance sheets of many S&P 500 companies are overflowing with net cash, supporting such a multiple, too. All told, investors might expect the stock market to hit technical support levels on the S&P 500 of 3,200-3,500 in the near term, but from where we stand, stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration over the long haul.

Jun 10, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of June 10
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.