Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Oct 27, 2022

McDonald’s, Chipotle’s Third-Quarter Results Were Solid, Strong Comp Performance
Image Source: Valuentum. We’re huge fans of McDonald’s positioning in the current inflationary environment, and we love Chipotle’s long-term unit growth potential. Global comparable store sales at McDonald’s were up 9.5% during the third quarter, while Chipotle expects to add 255-285 new restaurants in 2023, a pace we think is achievable given the momentum behind the brand and the adoption of Chipotlane’s that were kickstarted by COVID-19 protocols. The high end of our fair value estimate range for McDonald’s is $300 per share, while that mark stands at $1,765 per share for Chipotle. We like both firms as ideas in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!

Oct 19, 2022

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!
We're excited to say that we're adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com.

Oct 18, 2022

BIN Portfolio ALERT: Removing META, Adding to XLE, Adding MCD and PEP
Image Source: Valuentum. This market is not going to get easier, in our view, and we still believe that 2023 may mark the bottom before a return to the path toward new highs again. However, the erratic volatile trading the past few weeks has us thinking that this is not a market focused on fundamentals, and therefore, we have to hedge our bets accordingly. With “alpha” otherwise we would have missed carved out by "raising" cash in late August before the latest swoon, we’ll now approach newsletter portfolio protection with put option considerations going forward. The changes made today will be reflected in the November 15 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Oct 14, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 14
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Oct 10, 2022

Recent Fair Value Estimate Updates
Image Source: Valuentum. We’ve made a number of fair value estimate changes across our coverage universe as a result of what we expect to be substantial weakness in the global economy. Many of our fair value estimate adjustments have come in the consumer discretionary sector, but we have also made tweaks to the fair value estimates of companies in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Though 2022 has been a tough year, we’ve been steady at the wheel, calling the nearly unprecedented fall in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio this year, the mid-teens percentage weakness in the SPY following the summer rally, all the while driving “outperformance” through the latest simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio update August 19. Another update will be forthcoming. This year has been tough, but it’s been a lot worse for asset allocators that missed out on the big bull market run in equities if they held a hefty allocation in bonds the past decade. Let’s keep our guards up as this market looks like it might get a lot worse before it gets better.

Sep 19, 2022

The Success Equation Book Review: Is the Skill Paradox a Myth in Investing? We Think So
Image: The game of baseball has changed during the past 100 years. While many point to a declining standard deviation and coefficient of variation in batting averages for evidence of a paradox of skill in baseball, it's more likely the game has changed. Players are hitting more homeruns, sacrificing batting average as a result. Note the red part of the line is when the game of baseball expanded to the current number of 30 teams. Data from the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season omitted. Source: Baseball Almanac. There's a lot of informational value in reading The Success Equation (and everyone should pick up a copy), but please be careful to come to your own conclusion. From where we stand, there is not a paradox of skill in investing (or baseball, for that matter). The games have simply changed based on new incentives. Some wise person may have written this before: Be careful not in what you read, but rather in the conclusions you draw from your reading. We wish Mauboussin could re-write The Success Equation considering some of the thoughts in this article. Maybe he will!

Sep 5, 2022

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
It’s easy to lose sight of the tremendous value that a Valuentum subscription provides during down markets, but we’ve been here for you every step of the way. 2019, 2020, and 2021 were fantastic years, and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have delivered in 2022. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is holding up nicely, and ideas within the Exclusive publication continue to boast impressive success rates. Members continue to receive options ideas to bet directionally on the stock market, and the book Value Trap has been true to its efforts, showcasing the ongoing benefits of forward-looking analysis. [Given the change in opinion following the publishing of the August edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter, please be sure to check www.Valuentum.com for Valuentum’s latest.]

Sep 1, 2022

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy
Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he's turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more!

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.