Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Jan 4, 2020

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds
Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception.

Oct 31, 2019

General Motors’ Cost Savings Plan Still Intact
Image Shown: Shares of General Motors moved higher after its third quarter 2019 earnings report as investors looked past the UAW strike and towards the future, particularly ongoing cost structure improvements. Our fair value estimate for GM stands at $48 per share, and we continue to like the automaker in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. General Motors’ Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.5x provides for solid payout coverage at a time of trade war volatility, and its Cruise division offers plenty of long-term upside as one of the leaders in the autonomous driving space.

Oct 27, 2019

BREAKING: General Motors and the UAW Reach a Deal, Ending the Strike
Image Shown: Shares of General Motors had come under fire over concerns regarding the extended UAW strike over the past several weeks, but with the strike now over, shares of GM may begin to converge back towards their intrinsic value. For General Motors, the company was a bigger winner than at first glance. While the strike reportedly will cost the company north of $2.0 billion on a pre-tax basis, General Motors was successful at getting several of its underutilized factories closed. Americans want SUVs, crossovers, and pickup trucks, not passenger cars, so maintaining factories set up to meet demand that isn’t there just doesn’t make sense on an economic basis. We see this deal as being a win-win and part of General Motors’ ability to continue improving its cost structure by removing underutilized assets from its operations while keeping in mind the company often needs approval from the union in order to do so. The pay increases are reasonable, and given that underutilized factories are shutting down, we think General Motors’ cost structure will keep getting better over the coming quarters and years ahead.

Oct 22, 2019

Ford Provides an Update on Its Self-Driving Plans
Image Source: Ford Motor Company – 2018 Annual Report. Ford reiterated that the goal is to begin commercializing its autonomous driving investments starting in 2021 via a self-driving service, likely something akin to a fleet of taxi cabs with built-in autonomous driving equipment and software. Self-driving taxi cab services could in theory create substantial recurring revenue streams that are less cyclical than demand for automobiles, allowing for smoother financial performance and more consistent free cash flows at an automaker like Ford.

Oct 16, 2019

BREAKING: UAW-GM Reaches Deal, More Coming from Valuentum Soon...
BREAKING: UAW-GM Reaches Deal, More Coming from Valuentum Soon...

Oct 12, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA
Catch up with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles.

Oct 7, 2019

General Motors and the Union Strike!
Image Source: General Motors Company – IR Presentation. A holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, shares of General Motors have come under pressure over the past month from the ongoing strike that involves roughly 46,000-48,000 of its workers (primarily in the US). Our fair value estimate for shares of General Motors stands at $48 per share, well above where GM is trading at as of this writing. We continue to like the name and will be monitoring ongoing UAW-GM talks very closely going forward. Shares of GM yield 4.4% as of this writing.

Oct 1, 2019

Carvana Seeks to Disrupt an Enormous Market
Image Source: Carvana Co. – IR Presentation. Carvana seeks to disrupt the used car and used light truck market in the United States as a leading e-commerce platform for used automobile sales. Perhaps best known for its “car vending machines” that are located in key metropolitan areas across the US, Carvana wants to fundamentally transform the way consumers buy, sell, and ultimately ascertain the proper value for used automobiles. Unlike more recent IPOs of high flying companies with absolutely no chance of becoming profitable, Carvana appears to have a scalable business model. For the established companies in this arena, we caution that Carvana may one day represent a serious competitive threat.

Sep 16, 2019

Our Reports on Stocks in the Auto Making Industry
Image Source: HRYMX. The auto manufacturers industry is characterized by high fixed costs, substantial operating leverage, and intense competition. Vehicle sales are impacted by general economic conditions, which are largely out of the control of participants, and by the cost of credit and fuel. Excess capacity, price discounting and other marketing initiatives can pressure the top line, while rising raw material and labor costs can squeeze the bottom line. Changing consumer preferences in type, model and fuel-efficiency can cause abrupt shifts in market share. The structural characteristics of the group are very poor.

Aug 23, 2019

Trump "Tweet Storm" Reveals Increased Frustration with Fed, China
Markets are starting to look toppy.