Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Feb 22, 2020

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? -- Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios
Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report -- 32. We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates--estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due to COVID-19--and corporate debt levels more elevated than ever before (note, a high net debt level should depress the P/E in enterprise valuation--US corporate debt has advanced 50% over the past decade, to $10 trillion), it is our contention that the current market reflects a “situation-equivalent” forward P/E (i.e. rightsizing for new net debt relative to the dot-com peak and adjusting for lower forward earnings expectations compared with current forecasts) perhaps greater than 24.4, which was recorded at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Though interest rates are lower than they were at the time of the dot-com crash, suggesting a modest reasonable bump to normalized forward P/E ratios of ~15 times to reflect “fair valuations,” we could seriously be in for fundamental-driven crash soon, as both the earnings multiple and earnings estimates contract aggressively. Hypothetically, a contraction to a 16x forward multiple on earnings estimates just 10% lower than currently forecast implies an S&P 500 of 2,566, or a swoon of about 20%-30% from current levels--and that would just get us down to 16x still-respectable forward numbers. How quantitative-driven price-agnostic trading may impact this scenario is not known either, and all of this could be setting up for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months. Fasten your seatbelts. We’ll have a few newsletter portfolio alerts coming Monday.

Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Dec 31, 2018

Valuentum Stock Screeners
Brian Nelson provides members with an update on Valuentum's stock screeners and the significant number of forward-looking data we provide. This article was sent to members via email December 29.

Dec 20, 2018

Market Mayhem -- Alerts for Members
Dear members -- we released a number of emails today. Please read and let us know if you have any questions. We're here for you.

Oct 25, 2018

Valuentum's ETF Reports
Image Source: Got Credit. Within each ETF report, we provide in-depth analysis and offer insights to help investors stay on top of key trends impacting exchange traded funds and their underlying industries, companies, and commodities. From evaluating the real estate cycle in REIT-focused ETFs to assessing the business dynamics of top holdings within consumer discretionary ETFs, for example, we focus on relevance and leave nothing important to the investment decision-making process out. Our ETF reports and ratings are completely forward-looking and bring the data to life with easy-to-understand analytics.

Aug 14, 2018

The Inflating Index Fund Bubble
Image Source: Mac.Else von Berlin. The investment industry is changing fast, and we’re happy to be an instrument for change. We’ve been clamoring to make index funds free for a long time, and we’re glad to see it finally happen. Let’s cover the implications of indiscriminate buying regardless of price with the observation that the number of publicly-traded companies is vastly shrinking. How long will the inflating index fund bubble last?

May 30, 2018

Study: Valuentum's Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
"Though we largely achieved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio’s goals in advancing the newsletter portfolio each publication year (ends December 15) and achieving relative outperformance and risk-adjusted superiority to the benchmark, we may have done even better had our equity allocation been full during the measurement period." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Apr 26, 2018

What’s Working (or NOT Working) in Today’s Market?
Image shown: Crude oil continues to lead gainers while consumer staples, REITs, and energy MLPs continue to get shellacked. Let’s take a look at what’s been working and what’s not been working in the market thus far in 2018. To little surprise, in our opinion, commodity prices have been the leaders, while interest-rate sensitive equities have been the laggards. We’ve been expecting this.

Apr 18, 2018

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages
Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website www.valuentum.com. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports.

Mar 15, 2018

Dollar General: A Model of Consistency
Dollar General’s fiscal 2017 marked its 28th consecutive year of positive same-store sales growth, and we couldn’t be more impressed with the consistency of its operational performance in the past three decades, as well as its share price performance since its addition to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.