Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 13, 2021

Fastenal’s Latest Earnings Update Indicates US Economic Recovery Continues
Image Source: Fastenal Company – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 12, Fastenal reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat top-line consensus estimates and matched bottom-line consensus estimates. The company’s latest earnings report reinforces our thesis that the US economy is continuing to recover from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. In 2020, Fastenal generated over 85% of its total sales in the US. Fastenal provides products and services in the decentralized maintenance, repair & operation (‘MRO’) industry, a space where the company attempts to gain an advantage over distribution by locating its operations as close as possible to the economic point of contract with its customers. We view Fastenal as a bellwether to broader trends in the industrials sector. With that said, let's dig into its latest report.

Sep 20, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Lockheed Martin Has Ample Space Upside
Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. The commercial and military opportunities in the realm of space have been growing at a brisk pace of late, and in our view, the growth runway in this area is immense. Lockheed Martin Corp is a giant defense contractor with a sizable space business that caters to national defense, governmental, and commercial needs. We include Lockheed Martin as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and shares of LMT yield ~3.1% as of this writing. The company has four core business operating segments and ‘Space’ is one of those segments, which generates a sizable amount of its annual sales.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

Apr 30, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week April 30
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Apr 23, 2021

Lockheed Martin Boosts Guidance
Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Lockheed Martin Corp, maker of missile systems, space offerings, radar systems, jet fighters (including the F-35), and other advanced weaponry, will play a leading role in keeping Western armed forces (and the militaries of Western allies) ahead of rising geopolitical tensions. We include the defense contractor as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and shares of LMT yield ~2.7% as of this writing. Lockheed Martin’s dividend growth trajectory is impressive, its free cash flow generating abilities are stellar, and it has an enormous backlog which provides a high degree of visibility as it concerns its future cash flow generating abilities.

Apr 8, 2021

The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."

Mar 5, 2021

Our Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway’s Latest Annual Report
Image Shown: Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B stock have been on an upward climb since June 2020 with room for additional capital appreciation upside. The top end of our fair value estimate range for BRK.B sits at $275 per share. We continue to like exposure to Berkshire Class B stock in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $275 per share of BRK.B, indicating the company has room for additional capital appreciation upside as of this writing even after moving higher over the past several months. Just like any investor, Mr. Buffett will not always get it right, but we appreciate his candor when he gets something wrong. Bigger picture, the outlook for the US economy appears strong as public health authorities are utilizing COVID-19 vaccine distribution efforts to help bring an end to the crisis. Mr. Buffett, in his letter, was very upbeat about the US economy. We will end with this comment from the Oracle of Omaha: “Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.”

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 28, 2021

Earnings Roundup of Three High-Yielding Firms: MMM, RTX, VZ
Image Source: 3M Company – Fourth Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic generated substantial headwinds for the global economy in 2020 and for most businesses large and small, save for many firms operating in the IT sector. However, several large industrial and telecommunications companies are reporting that the outlook for 2021 looks quite bright, relatively speaking, as ongoing vaccine distribution efforts indicate the pandemic will be brought to an end sooner than expected. In this article, let's examine the recent earnings reports from 3M, Raytheon Technologies, and Verizon Communications. Our fair value estimate on S&P 500 stands at 3,530-3,920.

Jan 27, 2021

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.