Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 12, 2020

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holding Disney Surges to All-Time Highs
Image Shown: The reach of the Disney+ video streaming service continues to grow as The Walt Disney Company keeps expanding the service into new markets. Image Source: The Walt Disney Company – December 2020 Investor Day Presentation. We continue to be big fans of The Walt Disney Company and include shares of DIS in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Back when Disney’s stock price plummeted this past March, we stuck with our capital appreciation thesis and did not panic. Since then, shares of DIS have staged an impressive comeback and are currently trading near all-time highs. Shares of Disney are up ~22% year-to-date as of this writing, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) which is up ~14% during this period (before taking dividend considerations into account, which does not change this picture much). Our optimistic view towards Disney is underpinned by the company’s bright long-term growth outlook. Though it will take a few years for Disney’s video streaming business to become a profit generating machine, the market is clearly excited about how this segment could potentially drive Disney’s future free cash flows meaningful higher over the long haul. The high end of our updated fair value estimate range is $184 per share.

Nov 13, 2020

Shares of Disney are Now Surging Towards the Top End of Our Fair Value Estimate Range
Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company are steadily climbing towards the top end of our fair value estimate range, which sits at $153 per share of DIS. After the market closed on November 12, The Walt Disney Company reported its fourth quarter and full-year earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended October 3, 2020). Its latest results beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Though Disney’s financials took a big hit from the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, as expected (with an eye towards the enormous headwinds facing its ‘Parks, Experiences and Products’ business segment), the company’s outlook has improved considerably as its various video streaming services continue to outperform. We include shares of Disney in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio with a modest weighting. As the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $153 per share of Disney, there could be room for shares to run higher even after recent share price gains.

Oct 29, 2020

Disney Is One Of Our Favorite Streaming Companies
Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company continue to recover from the pandemic-induced crash in March 2020. One of our favorite companies with significant exposure to the video streaming arena is the entertainment behemoth The Walt Disney Company. The company’s various streaming services include ESPN+, Disney+, Hulu, among others. On October 12, Disney announced a major restructuring which effectively reorganized several of its business operating segments around supporting its video streaming ambitions, with an eye towards ensuring sizable investments in original content would be put towards good use.

Sep 3, 2020

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years
Image Source: http://www.epictop10.com/. "When I left as director in the equity and credit department at Morningstar in 2011, I thought I knew a whole heck of a lot about investing. I felt like I was one in the top 5-10 in the world as it relates to the category of practical knowledge of enterprise valuation (maybe include Koller at McKinsey, Mauboussin at Counterpoint, and Damadoran at Stern on this list). After all, I oversaw the valuation infrastructure of a department that used the process extensively, and the firm was among just a few that used enterprise valuation systematically. Then, at Valuentum, our small team would go on to build/update 20,000+ more enterprise valuation models. There can always be someone else out there, of course, but I don't think anybody has worked within the DCF model as much as I have across so many different companies. That said, through the past near-10 years managing Valuentum's simulated newsletter portfolios, I've also learned a number of things to become an even better portfolio manager." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Jun 1, 2020

June Dividend Growth Newsletter & Intrinsic Value Investing
"But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] "attractive"? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: "value" and "growth,"...We view that as fuzzy thinking...Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term "value investing" is redundant." -- Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992

Apr 3, 2020

Repub from July 2019 -- The Valuentum Economic Roundtable
We sat down with the Valuentum team to get their thoughts on the global economy and key issues that may threaten this near 10-year bull market.

Jan 4, 2020

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds
Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception.

Oct 12, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA
Catch up with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles.

May 14, 2019

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger
Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a "fully invested" position, from a 30% and 20% cash "weighting" at the high end of the range, respectively.

Apr 16, 2019

Disney Pushes Deeper into the Streaming Market While Cooling Off on Future Star Wars Movie Releases
Entertainment giant Disney has been milking the Star Wars franchise for all its worth since acquiring Lucasfilms back in 2012. Now fans are starting to shun the franchise’s blockbuster movie releases and that has management considering how to properly leverage this top tier asset going forward.