Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 21, 2022

Procter & Gamble’s Bright Investor Day Buoys Our Views on Stock
Image: Procter & Gamble has delivered pre-, during, and post-pandemic, and its long-term growth targets remain reasonable, in our view. Image Source: P&G. Procter & Gamble has raised its dividend in each of the past 66 years and has paid a dividend in each of the past 132 years. Though the maker of Pampers, Bounty, Tide, Crest, and a number of other household brands is facing the market realities of inflationary pressures on consumers, input cost headwinds and retailers tightening their inventories, we think it will be able to achieve its core targets for fiscal 2023, while rewarding dividend investors along the way. With shares yielding ~2.6% at the time of this writing, P&G remains a solid income and dividend growth consideration for conservative investors. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $158 per share.

Nov 10, 2022

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!

Oct 30, 2022

Something New!
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.

Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Oct 21, 2022

Get Excited: Dividend Growth Investors Rejoice! – More “Outperformance”
Image: Valuentum’s simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio continues to “outperform” relative to almost any dividend-paying benchmark this year! Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is not a real money portfolio. As of the last tally through October 19, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is beating the S&P 500 Dividend ETF SPDR (SDY) by roughly ~3.2 percentage points so far in 2022 (-8.4% versus -11.6%), all the while we’ve seen some awesome dividend growth across the board, with Microsoft (MSFT), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Honeywell (HON), and Realty Income (O) recently pushing through some nice dividend increases. What’s ~3.2 percentage points on a million-dollar portfolio? ~$32,000 in capital one doesn’t have to make up when the market’s coming roaring back in the coming years – and that’s relative to a dividend growth benchmark that is “outperforming” the SPY in a big way in 2022.

Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!

Oct 19, 2022

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!
We're excited to say that we're adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com.

Oct 19, 2022

Johnson & Johnson Reports Mixed 3Q Results, Plans to Spin Off Consumer Health Division Mid-to-Late 2023
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson. Johnson & Johnson is one of the top weightings in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and it has delivered tremendous stability at a time when the markets are facing considerable pressure. Year-to-date, Johnson & Johnson has fallen about 4% on a price-only basis, while the S&P 500 is down more than 18% so far in 2022. Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures and currency headwinds will muddy operational results in the near term, and its planned spin-off of its ‘Consumer Health’ division as Kenvue in mid-to-late 2023 will complicate financials, but we still like Johnson & Johnson. Shares yield ~2.7% at the time of this writing.

Oct 18, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Outperforming
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc have put up stellar performance so far in 2022. We are huge fans of UnitedHealth Group, and its dividend growth potential remains immense. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $599 per share of UnitedHealth Group, indicating that the health care giant also possesses substantial capital appreciation upside as well. UnitedHealth Group’s acquisition of Change Healthcare is intriguing and should generate material synergies going forward. Looking ahead, we expect that UnitedHealth Group will grow its dividend at a robust pace, aided by its strong free cash flow generating abilities and pristine balance sheet.

Oct 10, 2022

Recent Fair Value Estimate Updates
Image Source: Valuentum. We’ve made a number of fair value estimate changes across our coverage universe as a result of what we expect to be substantial weakness in the global economy. Many of our fair value estimate adjustments have come in the consumer discretionary sector, but we have also made tweaks to the fair value estimates of companies in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Though 2022 has been a tough year, we’ve been steady at the wheel, calling the nearly unprecedented fall in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio this year, the mid-teens percentage weakness in the SPY following the summer rally, all the while driving “outperformance” through the latest simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio update August 19. Another update will be forthcoming. This year has been tough, but it’s been a lot worse for asset allocators that missed out on the big bull market run in equities if they held a hefty allocation in bonds the past decade. Let’s keep our guards up as this market looks like it might get a lot worse before it gets better.