Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!

Oct 19, 2022

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!
We're excited to say that we're adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com.

Sep 19, 2022

The Success Equation Book Review: Is the Skill Paradox a Myth in Investing? We Think So
Image: The game of baseball has changed during the past 100 years. While many point to a declining standard deviation and coefficient of variation in batting averages for evidence of a paradox of skill in baseball, it's more likely the game has changed. Players are hitting more homeruns, sacrificing batting average as a result. Note the red part of the line is when the game of baseball expanded to the current number of 30 teams. Data from the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season omitted. Source: Baseball Almanac. There's a lot of informational value in reading The Success Equation (and everyone should pick up a copy), but please be careful to come to your own conclusion. From where we stand, there is not a paradox of skill in investing (or baseball, for that matter). The games have simply changed based on new incentives. Some wise person may have written this before: Be careful not in what you read, but rather in the conclusions you draw from your reading. We wish Mauboussin could re-write The Success Equation considering some of the thoughts in this article. Maybe he will!

Sep 5, 2022

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
It’s easy to lose sight of the tremendous value that a Valuentum subscription provides during down markets, but we’ve been here for you every step of the way. 2019, 2020, and 2021 were fantastic years, and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have delivered in 2022. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is holding up nicely, and ideas within the Exclusive publication continue to boast impressive success rates. Members continue to receive options ideas to bet directionally on the stock market, and the book Value Trap has been true to its efforts, showcasing the ongoing benefits of forward-looking analysis. [Given the change in opinion following the publishing of the August edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter, please be sure to check www.Valuentum.com for Valuentum’s latest.]

Sep 1, 2022

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy
Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he's turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more!

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.

Aug 27, 2022

Cisco Systems Expects Its Growth Trajectory Will Resume in Earnest This Fiscal Year
Image Shown: Cisco Systems Inc is incredibly shareholder friendly. Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. Cisco Systems reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended July 30, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The networking hardware and software provider also issued promising guidance for fiscal 2023 that Wall Street appreciated. Cisco Systems is steadily putting supply chain hurdles (with an eye towards a shortage of semiconductor components and transportation bottlenecks) behind it and its growth outlook is starting to improve as a result. We continue to like shares of CSCO as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Shares of CSCO yield ~3.2% as of this writing.

Aug 24, 2022

ICYMI (Aug 19) -- ALERT -- PYPL, META, GOOG, V -- Making Some Big Changes in the Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio!
Image Shown: We are very happy with the overall "performance" of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, which is carving out 2.6 percentage points of relative outperformance so far in 2022 on a price-only basis, as shown in the table above. However, we're making some big changes to the simulated newsletter portfolio today on some of our favorite names. Our best ideas continue to be in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, the simulated ESG Newsletter portfolio, and the Exclusive publication, as well as with our additional options commentary. We're making some big moves in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio today! At the moment, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is carving out about 2.6 percentage points of relative outperformance so far in 2022, on a price-only basis relative to the the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF. Overall, after some huge years, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is down a modest ~8.6% in 2022, by our estimates. Pretty good, all things considered. That said, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has bounced right off its 200-day moving average (technical resistance), and we're not going to sit by while the risks to the market this year increase. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul, of course, but we think incremental alpha may be generated by removing/trimming/adding to some of our winners in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio at this time. We're changing our mind on a couple things, too, as any good investor does. [This note was emailed to members August 19.]

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Jul 11, 2022

Valuentum's Unmatched Product Suite
We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value--net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects.