Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 14, 2022

Valuentum Weekly: Yields on New Series I Savings Bonds Have Soared!
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are all indicated up Sunday night (March 13), but that may not mean much when trading kicks off tomorrow. The start to 2022 has been one of the worst stretches during the past decade, but broader market indexes still aren't down much, even after factoring in several expected rate hikes by the Fed and economic sanctions on Russia due to the war in Ukraine. According to data from Seeking Alpha, the S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and Nasdaq (QQQ) are off ~12%, ~10%, and ~19% so far this year, respectively. However, this weakness compares to (and is inclusive of) incredible 5-year price-only returns on the SPY, DIA, and QQQ of ~77%, ~58%, ~146%, respectively, so it's hard for stock investors to be disappointed in much of anything, even if all they were able to do was match the returns of the S&P 500 the past 5 years. Many, however, unfortunately, diluted those 5-year returns with hefty bond and international exposure and sometimes large AUM fees, so the weakness in 2022 is probably more painful for some than perhaps it should be. In any case, we remain bullish on stocks for the long run, with a heavy bent toward large cap growth and big cap tech with tactical overweight "positions" in big cap energy.

Mar 7, 2022

Valuentum Weekly: Outsized Energy Exposure Continues to Buoy Newsletter Portfolios
Image: Light crude oil futures once traded for roughly -$40 (negative $40) during the COVID-19 crisis, but have now rocketed to more than $120 in recent trading. Image Source: TradingView. The S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, is down 9% year-to-date, a modest pullback, in our view, particularly in light of the fantastic performance the past few years. Though not necessarily welcome, a down year every now and then for the broader market indexes and a modest bear market can only be expected, at times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as measured by the DIA, is down more than 7% year-to-date (not too bad), while the Nasdaq--as measured by the QQQ--and 'disruptive innovation' stocks--as measured by the Ark Innovation ETF--have fallen more than 15% and 36%, respectively, so far this year (data from Seeking Alpha). We like how the simulated newsletter portfolios are positioned. Energy resource prices continue to surge (with WTI crude oil prices skyrocketing north of $120 per barrel at last check), and they are bringing energy equities higher along with them. The simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio are all materially overweight energy equities relative to the energy sector’s weighting in the S&P 500, and we expect to maintain such high tactical "exposure." Both the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF and the Vanguard Energy ETF soared to 13-year highs last week. Our favorite energy ideas are the largest two energy majors, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and both have hefty 'weightings' in each of the three aforementioned simulated newsletter portfolios. Russian equities, as measured by the RSX, are down nearly 80% so far this year, and we're pleased to say that we've largely avoided the fall out. We continue to like the broader areas of U.S.-heavy, large cap growth and big cap tech when it comes to long-term secular exposure, and we continue to like energy as a tactical overweight for the foreseeable future across the simulated newsletter portfolios, as much as we did even prior to the huge advance in energy resource prices and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Feb 17, 2022

Cisco Posts Great Earnings Update; Increases Dividend and Share Buyback Authority
Image Shown: Cisco Systems Inc is a very shareholder friendly company. Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On February 16, Cisco Systems reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended January 29, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of CSCO surged higher initially after its earnings were made public as the company offered up promising near term guidance, indicating that its positive momentum seen of late is expected to continue. We include shares of CSCO as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Cisco announced a 3% sequential increase in its quarterly dividend in conjunction with its latest earnings update, bringing it up to $0.38 per share or $1.52 per share on an annualized basis. The company also announced it had increased its share repurchasing capacity by $15 billion, bringing its total repurchasing capacity up to ~$18 billion. Shares of CSCO yield ~2.8% as of this writing at its new payout level, and we view its dividend strength as rock-solid due to its pristine balance sheet and stellar free cash flows. Our fair value estimate for Cisco sits at $62 per share with room for upside as the high end of our fair value estimate range sits at $74 per share. That is meaningfully above where shares of CSCO are trading at as of this writing (~$56 per share each), and we view the company’s capital appreciation upside potential quite favorably.

Feb 6, 2022

Weekly: Why We Missed Big on T and FB; Overpriced Staples, Our Call To Action; and More!
In this Valuentum Weekly, in video form, President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why Valuentum missed big on T and FB, how volatility on names with huge market caps is spiking recklessly, and why the call to action in the book Value Trap remains as relevant as ever given current incentives.

Jan 22, 2022

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater
Image: Erica Nicol. Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor may be doing much worse. Our timing to exit some very speculative ideas in the Exclusive publication has been impeccable. Beware of “best-fitted” backtest data regarding sequence of return risks. Research is to help you navigate the future, not the past. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul and grow more and more excited as our simulated newsletter portfolios continue to hold up very well. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Stick with the largest, strongest growth names. We still like large cap growth and big cap tech, though we are tactical overweight in the largest energy stocks (e.g. XOM, CVX, XLE). The latest short idea in the Exclusive publication has collapsed aggressively since highlight January 9, and we remain encouraged by the resilience of ideas in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and ESG Newsletter portfolio. Our options idea generation remains ongoing.

Jan 13, 2022

Governance: The G in ESG Investing
Image: The Valuentum Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Scoring System shows how “Governance” considerations are analyzed. No discussion of ESG investing would be complete without addressing the role of corporate governance (“stewardship”) in equity investing. As with the other aspects of ESG investing, corporate governance covers a lot of ground. It can include pretty much anything related to how a company is run, including leadership, executive compensation, audits and accounting, and shareholder rights. These areas are just the tip of the iceberg, however. A company with good corporate governance is one that is run well with the proper incentives and with all stakeholders in mind, from employees to suppliers to customers to shareholders and beyond. Good corporate governance practices decrease the risk to investors as it cuts through conflicts of interest, misuse of resources, and a general lack of concern for all stakeholders. A company that fails at implementing good corporate governance is at increased risk of litigation or scandal, which could wreck the share price. With the turn of the century, the dot com bust probably exposed most prominently the need for good corporate governance practices. Fraud was rampant. Whether it was the former CEO of Tyco International receiving millions in unauthorized bonuses, the actions of those at the top of Enron that created one of the biggest frauds in corporate history, the scandal at accounting and auditing firm Arthur Andersen, the demise of MCI/Worldcom, or the questionable practices that led to the Global Analyst Research Settlement, Wall Street had lost its way. In fact, a big reason why our firm Valuentum was founded is based on ensuring that investors get a fair shake and that someone is keeping a watchful eye not only on companies, but also on the sell-side stock analyst research that may still be full of conflicts of interest. As a result of the Global Analyst Research Settlement, all the big investment banks from Goldman Sachs to J.P. Morgan to Morgan Stanley to UBS Group and beyond had to pay stiff fines for producing conflicted, if not fraudulent research. In this note, we talk about the considerations that go into the G in ESG investing.

Nov 23, 2021

Nvidia Continues to Deliver in the Face of Global Supply Chain Crunch
Image Source: Nvidia Corporation – September 2021 IR Presentation. On November 17, Nvidia Corp reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended October 31, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, and the firm provided favorable guidance covering the current fiscal quarter. The company has done a solid job navigating the ongoing shortage of semiconductor components along with other hurdles such as logistical bottlenecks and inflationary pressures. Nvidia’s growth runway is enormous as it intends to expand into a new market within the semiconductor space, which we will cover in this note. Shares of NVDA have leapt higher during the past month as the “chip” company’s (Nvidia designs chips that are produced by third parties) fundamental performance has been nothing short of stellar while its outlook continues to get brighter and brighter.

Nov 19, 2021

Cisco Systems Posts Solid Earnings Update; Supply Chain Hurdles Impacting Near Term Outlook
Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On November 17, Cisco Systems reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended October 30, 2021) that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. Shares of CSCO fell initially after its latest earnings update was published due to its near-term guidance coming in a tad softer than expected, though we caution that this is primarily due to supply chain headwinds negatively impacting Cisco Systems and the networking hardware industry more broadly. As global health authorities work towards bringing the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic to an end worldwide, the supply chain situation should improve going forward. We include Cisco Systems as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. As of this writing, shares of CSCO yield ~2.6%.

Oct 8, 2021

Putting the Environmental in ESG
Image: This excerpt from the Valuentum Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Scoring System shows how environmental considerations are analyzed. Environmental considerations are just one piece of the ESG analysis, but they can reveal a lot about a company and its values. Companies that make a commitment to protecting the environment, especially those that are doing it better than their peers, are not only recognizing the social importance but also protecting themselves--and their investors--from negative financial impacts related to environment issues.

Oct 4, 2021

Markets Look Vulnerable, Adding "Protection"
The S&P 500 (SPY) and corresponding 50-day (green), 100-day (purple), and 200-day moving averages (red). We expect the SPY may have to "correct" to the 200-day moving average, or about $412-$413 per share before it finds its footing. Self-inflicted wounds the past several weeks have altered the market's sentiment for the worse, and we don't think the selling is done yet.