Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 4, 2022

Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong
Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe. Apple's sales of the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will come in lower than expected this holiday season due to labor unrest in Zhengzhou, but holiday sales for 2022 overall look fairly solid with Adobe Analytics estimating 2.5% growth over 2021, which, itself, was a fantastic year. A prior warning about holiday sales from Target Corp. appears to have been overblown given the sales strength witnessed during Black Friday and Cyber Monday across the retail landscape this year. It may be too early to say that the markets have definitely bottomed as economic data remains inconclusive, but holiday sales so far in 2022 and an overall resilient job market are giving investors something to cheer about in what has turned into an otherwise loathsome year.

Nov 22, 2022

Dick’s Sporting Goods Defies Skeptics, Puts Up Strong Comp Performance in Fiscal Third Quarter
Image: Dick’s Sporting Goods is the premiere sporting goods retailer, and the firm’s performance during its recently reported fiscal third quarter showed a key inflection point in same-store-sales growth. Image Source: Dick’s Sporting Goods. On November 22, Dick’s Sporting Goods reported fiscal third quarter results for the period ending October 29 that beat expectations on both the top and bottom line, but the real story was the sporting good retailer’s same-store sales performance, which far exceeded the consensus expectation for the period. With a forward estimated dividend yield of ~1.8% and a solid Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.3, Dick’s Sporting Goods remains one of our favorite ideas within the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Nov 21, 2022

Target’s Holiday Outlook Sends Mixed Messages; Big Sales Data Week Ahead
Image Source: Valuentum. Both Walmart and Target indicated that discretionary spending may face some pressure heading into the holiday season. Strength in beauty, skin care, and cosmetics may not be enough to cushion the blow that home electronics, sporting goods retailers, and toy makers may face. Though incrementally more positive than we were a few months ago, we remain cautious/defensive on the markets. In light of the tremendous weakness share prices have faced so far this year, we think the market had been anticipating the current slowdown, as retailers continue to adjust to a more difficult economic environment. We continue to wait to see how Black Friday and Cyber Monday numbers shake out to get an incrementally better read on how holiday numbers may pan out, which will have far-reaching implications across the retail and logistics landscapes.

Oct 30, 2022

Something New!
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.

Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Oct 21, 2022

Get Excited: Dividend Growth Investors Rejoice! – More “Outperformance”
Image: Valuentum’s simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio continues to “outperform” relative to almost any dividend-paying benchmark this year! Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is not a real money portfolio. As of the last tally through October 19, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is beating the S&P 500 Dividend ETF SPDR (SDY) by roughly ~3.2 percentage points so far in 2022 (-8.4% versus -11.6%), all the while we’ve seen some awesome dividend growth across the board, with Microsoft (MSFT), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Honeywell (HON), and Realty Income (O) recently pushing through some nice dividend increases. What’s ~3.2 percentage points on a million-dollar portfolio? ~$32,000 in capital one doesn’t have to make up when the market’s coming roaring back in the coming years – and that’s relative to a dividend growth benchmark that is “outperforming” the SPY in a big way in 2022.

Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!

Oct 19, 2022

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!
We're excited to say that we're adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com.

Oct 10, 2022

Recent Fair Value Estimate Updates
Image Source: Valuentum. We’ve made a number of fair value estimate changes across our coverage universe as a result of what we expect to be substantial weakness in the global economy. Many of our fair value estimate adjustments have come in the consumer discretionary sector, but we have also made tweaks to the fair value estimates of companies in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Though 2022 has been a tough year, we’ve been steady at the wheel, calling the nearly unprecedented fall in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio this year, the mid-teens percentage weakness in the SPY following the summer rally, all the while driving “outperformance” through the latest simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio update August 19. Another update will be forthcoming. This year has been tough, but it’s been a lot worse for asset allocators that missed out on the big bull market run in equities if they held a hefty allocation in bonds the past decade. Let’s keep our guards up as this market looks like it might get a lot worse before it gets better.

Sep 30, 2022

Nike’s Fundamental Backdrop Speaks of Serious Impending Global Recession
Image Source: Raul Gonzalez. Nike’s share price has been roughly cut in half this year, and its fundamental backdrop speaks of a serious impending global recession, in our view. Weak revenue performance, lower gross margins, bloated inventory, and significant troubles in China suggest even tougher times are ahead. Nike is a not included in any of the simulated newsletter portfolios, and we’d be cautious on it as well as the broader retailing industry as the U.S. enters what could be a deep recession in 2023. Things are going to get worse before they get better.