Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 11, 2023

Disney: Iger’s Back, Peltz Concedes, Thousands of Jobs Gone, Dividend Coming Back Soon
Image Source: Valuentum. Disney has a lot of work to do. The company’s Parks, Experiences and Products segment has recovered nicely from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, but pricing increases may put the experience out of reach for many. Disney+ subscribers may have peaked given that the company will begin to cut costs to the bone in an effort to stop the billions in cash burn. Disney ended the year with $8.47 billion in cash and equivalents and a massive $48.4 billion debt load. Investors are happy that Bob Iger is back and with the company’s plans to re-instate a modest dividend later this year, but we think former CEO Bob Chapek may have gotten a bad shake. Chapek took over the week of the huge COVID-driven market crash in February 2020 and led the firm through a once-in-a-century pandemic, only to be shown the door before his investments could ever be given a chance of bearing fruit. There’s more to this story than we’ll ever know, and we doubt that Disney or Iger will have much to say about it.

Feb 10, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 10
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 8, 2023

Net-Cash-Rich Vertex Pharma’s Lucrative Cystic Fibrosis Franchise Continues to Power Performance
Image Source: Vertex Pharma. We’re huge fans of Vertex Pharma. We love its net-cash-rich balance sheet, strong free-cash-flow generating capacity and lucrative and established CF franchise. We also like its long-term potential in CRISPR gene-editing technology and pain management alternatives to opioids and believe the company has other opportunities that may eventually reach commercialization across its pipeline. Our fair value estimate of Vertex Pharma stands at $320 per share, and we continue like the company as our primary biotech exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 7, 2023

Two Top Income Ideas Locked in Hostile Takeover Battle
Image Source: Public Storage. On February 5, Public Storage announced it has launched a hostile takeover of Life Storage. Life Storage seems content in refusing to negotiate with Public Storage at this time, but the saga is not over yet. We’re anxiously awaiting either PSA’s or LSI’s next move. We think a combined entity will have higher levels of profitability, a better credit rating, and greater financial capacity to drive even further growth in adjusted funds from operations and dividends per share. Both entities yield ~3.9% on a forward estimated basis.

Feb 3, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 3
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 2, 2023

Meta’s Free Cash Flow Generation Has Returned, But TikTok Has Permanently Changed the Competitive Landscape
Image: Meta Platforms’ free cash flow has bounced back a bit, but the firm’s top-line growth remains challenged as it transitions away from a secular growth powerhouse into a cyclical story with encroaching competition. Image Source: Meta Platforms. We’re loving this nice move higher in the stylistic area of large cap growth, and for those investors seeking broad-based exposure, we think this area is the place to be in the long run. Tesla’s strong financial performance coupled with Meta Platforms’ return to financial discipline are propelling large cap growth higher, but risks to the broader equity markets and economy remain. In any case, with inflation likely peaking in June 2022, fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season coming in better-than-feared, and technical breakouts of key indices across the board from the equal-weighted and market-cap weighted S&P 500 to the NASDAQ-100, equity investors have a lot to cheer about.

Jan 28, 2023

We Don’t Think Intel Will Spoil the Tech Rally
Image Shown: The Invesco QQQ ETF has broken through its technical downtrend, and we don’t think Intel’s poor outlook will derail this tech rally. Image Source: TradingView. Intel no longer is the bellwether it once was. Its market capitalization has dwindled significantly in recent years and now stands at ~116.5 billion, lower than Advanced Micro Devices' market capitalization of ~$121.6 billion, Texas Instruments' market capitalization of ~$158.8 billion, and Nvidia’s market capitalization of ~$501 billion. Taiwan Semiconductor has a market capitalization of ~$431 billion, while ASML Holding has a market capitalization of ~$268 billion. Intel no longer is what it once was, and as such, we don’t think its poor and borderline shocking outlook will derail a tech rally that could have significant legs. We still like these markets, and we don’t think Intel will spoil the party.

Jan 26, 2023

Market-Cap Weighted S&P 500 Breaks Out; Have We Already Seen the Bottom?
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) has broken through its downtrend. The markets could be headed meaningfully higher. Image Source: TradingView. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 has broken out of the technical downtrend that defined 2022 following the equal-weight breakout that preceded it. The pace of inflation looks like it peaked in June 2022, and while myriad risks to both the economy and stock market remain, fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season is shaping up better than feared. We maintain our view that the markets remain at critical technical levels, and we continue to monitor earnings season and technical developments closely.

Jan 24, 2023

Manpower Group’s Massive Free Cash Flow Yield Facing Some Pressures; Shares Have Dividend Yield of ~3%
Image: Manpower Group is a tremendous generator of free cash flow, though performance can be lumpy at times. Image Source: Manpower Group. Manpower Group has been acquisitive and is facing increased competition of late, but the company’s financials, particularly its free cash flow generation, remain quite attractive. The firm continues to buy back stock at a nice clip, too, as it pays its attractive semi-annual dividend of $1.36 per share. Though its free cash flow yield will face some pressure using pending 2022 results, Manpower Group could be an idea for investors seeking equities with outsized free cash flow yields in this market, in our view. We expect to fine-tune our assumptions within our discounted cash-flow model once the company’s fourth-quarter results are released in the coming weeks, but very few non-energy firms have such a strong normalized free cash flow yield as that of Manpower Group.

Jan 22, 2023

What So-Called Statistical “Value Premium?”
Image: The iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF has outperformed the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF by nearly 250 percentage points over the past two decades. Image Source: TradingView. This article shows that there may be hundreds, if not thousands, of ways to measure “value” versus “growth,” and different time horizons can be used to tell different stories about “value” versus “growth," but we think a 20-year horizon using the IWD versus the IWF is a great example of why relying blindly on empirical, evidence-based analysis within backtests employing realized historical data can be quite painful. Whatever one believes, however, the intelligent investor shouldn’t be surprised by any of the findings in this article. In the field of finance, there’s just not much substance behind empirical, evidence-based, backtests that are based solely on realized historical data, in our view, when markets themselves are in (large) part a function of future expectations of “coupons,” as Warren Buffett explains.