Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Sep 8, 2020

Macy’s Is Treading Water for Now
Image Shown: Shares of Macy’s Inc have flatlined since crashing during the first three months of calendar year 2020 as investors await signs of the embattled retailer’s turnaround strategy taking hold. On September 2, embattled retailer Macy’s reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) that saw the firm’s comparable sales drop 34.7% year-over-year at stores owned by Macy’s due primarily to physical store closures brought on by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The year-over-year decline in comparable sales deepened to 35.1% when including stores owned and licensed by Macy’s. Digital sales offered some reprieve as those were up 53% year-over-year last fiscal quarter, with digital sales as a percentage of the retailer’s total sales at its owned stores coming in at 54%.

Sep 1, 2020

Valuentum Website Overview
Overview of the key features of www.valuentum.com (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information.

Aug 28, 2020

Dollar General Posts Another Stellar Earnings Report
Image Shown: Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Dollar General Corporation has seen its stock price climb significantly higher year-to-date, as of this writing on August 27. On August 27, Dollar General Corp reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended July 31, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The retailer’s same-store sales increased by 18.8% year-over-year aided by a series of initiatives that we have covered in the past including DG Pickup (Dollar General had stepped up its digital investments in recent years, with DG Pickup offering customers a way to order via mobile device and pickup those goods in-store), DG Fresh (Dollar General is adding more consumer staples offerings to its stores, namely refrigerated and frozen foods), and by placing a greater emphasis on selling non-consumable products (which carry higher gross margins). Longer term, Dollar General wants to add more fresh produce to its stores.

Aug 24, 2020

Target Posts Stellar Comparable Store Growth, Digital Investments Lead the Way
Image Source: Target Corporation – May 2013 IR Presentation. Elevated demand for consumers staples products and rebounding consumer discretionary sales helped Target Corp report record comparable store sales growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2020 (period ended August 1, 2020), which were up 24.3% year-over-year. Digital comparable sales were up a whopping 195% year-over-year as same-day delivery services grew by 273%, with Target citing strength at its curbside pickup, order online/pickup in-store and home delivery options. Please note Target generates virtually all of its revenues in the US.

Aug 12, 2020

Amazon Secures Big Win in the Online Grocery Market
Image Shown: Shares of Amazon have surged over the past year. Compared to their March 2020 lows, shares of AMZN have almost doubled as of this writing on August 10, 2020. On July 30, Amazon reported second-quarter earnings for 2020 that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates by a mile. As of this writing, shares of AMZN have almost doubled since hitting their March 2020 lows as Amazon’s lines of business were well-prepared to ride out the storm created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, assisted by the firm’s pristine balance sheet.

Jul 14, 2020

Levi Strauss Skips Dividend Payment
Image Shown: An overview of Levi Strauss & Co.’s historical financials and operational footprint. As you can see, most of Levi Strauss’ sales are conducted through its wholesale segment. The company’s own e-commerce sales channel has historically represented just a small part of Levi Strauss’ total net revenues. Image Source: Levi Strauss & Co. – December 2019 Investor Presentation. On June 7, Levi Strauss & Co. reported second-quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 24, 2020) that missed consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-line. The apparel retailer noted it would reduce its “non-retail, non-manufacturing workforce” headcount by 700 employees to save an annualized $0.1 billion on corporate overhead as the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has devasted its financial performance. Levi Strauss touted its recent successes in the e-commerce arena but investors still sold off the name in the following days as the firm opted to skip an upcoming dividend payment (and likely due to growing fears over how a second wave of COVID-19 infections in the US and elsewhere would impact the company’s future financial performance).

Jul 2, 2020

Macy’s Builds Liquidity and Cuts Costs to Stay Afloat
Image Shown: Our fair value estimate range for shares of Macy’s Inc is quite wide at $1-$9 per share, relatively speaking, as the retailer’s outlook remains troubled due to its large net debt load and the ongoing pandemic. In the event Macy’s can reopen its physical stores in the near-term while maintaining recent gains seen at its digital operations, its revenues might rebound convincingly. Should Macy’s be forced to close its physical stores again for a prolonged period of time to contain the ongoing pandemic, that would likely drain its recently enhanced liquidity position and put a tremendous amount of stress of its financials going forward. Thus Macy’s has a relatively wide range of fair value outcomes, and represents the type of firm we generally prefer to stay away from. On July 1, Macy’s reported first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 2, 2020) that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The retailer’s GAAP net sales plummeted by 45% year-over-year last fiscal quarter due to various US state and local government mandates that forced non-essential businesses to close. Quarantine efforts to contain the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic in the US, rising unemployment rates, and a large net debt load represent three big hurdles Macy’s will need to find a way to deal with. Please note that most of the retailer’s physical stores are in the US and that Macy’s suspended its common dividend payouts earlier this calendar year. A large impairment charge combined with sharply lower revenues saw Macy’s post a large GAAP net loss of $3.6 billion in the fiscal first quarter.

Jun 23, 2020

Kroger Fighting for Market Share in the Online US Grocery Business
Image Source: The Kroger Company – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report. On June 18, The Kroger released its first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 23, 2020) that beat both top- and bottom-line estimates. Comparable store sales (excluding fuel) grew by 19% year-over-year as consumers flocked to its various grocery stores and supermarkets (under brands such as Fred Meyer, Fry’s Marketplace, Pick ‘n Save, and others) to stock up on consumer staples products as the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) spread across North America. Kroger’s digital sales surged 92% year-over-year last fiscal quarter as curbside and home delivery options have become increasingly popular during the pandemic. Shares of KR yield ~2.0% and are trading in the upper bound of our fair value estimate range as of this writing.

Jun 21, 2020

Gap Buys Itself Some Time
Image Shown: An overview of Gap Inc’s net sales by brand. Image Source: Gap Inc – First Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On June 4, Gap reported first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 2, 2020) that missed both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of GPS have gotten crushed due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic as consumers (particularly those in the US) have spent far less on discretionary goods (like apparel) over the past several months. Combined with the negative impact of physical store closures and the lack of a meaningful online presence, Gap shares sank as its outlook turned dire. Though Gap operates stores in over 40 countries, please note about ~80-82% of its GAAP net sales came from the US from fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2019, highlighting its dependence on the US consumer.

Jun 16, 2020

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks
Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. In addition to unlimited quantitative easing and "whatever it takes, squared" Fed policy, today, June 16, the Trump administration announced that it is weighing a $1 trillion stimulus bill to help support the economy. While uncertainties remain regarding specifics of the bill (it might include state assistance, extension of unemployment benefits, etc.), the move is consistent with the outsize spending we expect to further bolster the bull case, "ICYMI -- Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am." We continue to emphasize that, in light of unlimited QE and runaway fiscal stimulus, the longer-duration components of intrinsic values are expanding considerably, and as a result, fair values, themselves, are actually rising during this recession and pandemic [a good estimate of the value of the S&P 500 today may be between 3,530-3,920, as outlined in the following: "Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes.]."