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Aug 21, 2024
TJX Companies Boosts Profit Guidance
Image: TJX’s stock has been on a tear over the past couple years. TJX expects consolidated comparable store sales growth to be between 2%-3% in the third quarter. Pre-tax profit margin is expected in the range of 11.8%-11.9% for the quarter, while diluted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $1.06-$1.08. For the full year fiscal 2025, consolidated comparable store sales are expected to be up ~3% (was 2%-3%), and the company raised its pre-tax profit margin to 11.2% and raised its diluted earnings per share outlook to be in the range of $4.09-$4.13 (was $4.03-$4.09). Though we liked the quarter and raised profit guidance, TJX’s shares are not cheap. We’re sticking with our $106 per share fair value estimate at this time. Shares yield 1.3%. Aug 21, 2024
Target’s Second Quarter Results Better Than Feared
Image: Target’s shares have been quite volatile since the beginning of 2023. Target expects a 0%-2% increase in comparable store sales and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.10-$2.40 in the third quarter (consensus was $2.24). For the full year, management thinks that comparable store sales growth will be in the 0%-2% range, with an increased likelihood that the increase will be in the lower half of the range. Target, however, now expects full-year GAAP and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $9.00-$9.70, which is up from previous expectations in the range of $8.60-$9.60 and the midpoint higher than the consensus forecast of $9.22 per share. Our fair value estimate of $155 per share remains unchanged at this time. Shares yield 3.1%. Aug 20, 2024
Mastercard’s Results Point to Continued Healthy Consumer Spending
Image: Mastercard’s stock has done quite well since the beginning of 2022. Mastercard operates a fantastic business model with huge operating and free cash flow margins. As with Visa, we’re huge fans of Mastercard’s network effect--as more consumers use Mastercard, more merchants accept their cards, which drives more consumers to use Mastercard and so on and so forth. Our fair value estimate of Mastercard is north of $480 per share. Aug 20, 2024
Ford Raises Adjusted Free Cash Flow Guidance, Warranty Costs Weigh on Shares
Image: Ford’s second quarter results weren’t great, but the company’s guidance calls for increased adjusted free cash flow in 2024. Ford is facing issues due to rising warranty costs in its Ford Blue [ICE] division, while losses continue to mount in its electric vehicle division, Ford Model e, where it anticipates a full-year loss of $5-$5.5 billion due in part to continued pricing pressures. However, it was reassuring that management maintained its 2024 company adjusted EBIT guidance, while raising its adjusted free cash flow guidance for the year. Based on Ford’s quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, the company yields 5.6% at the time of this writing. Our $15 per share fair value estimate remains unchanged. Aug 20, 2024
Lowe’s Lowers Full Year 2024 Outlook on Weak DIY Sales
Image: Lowe’s shares have traded sideways since the beginning of 2022. Lowe’s updated its outlook for full year 2024 to account for “lower than expected DIY sales and a pressured macroeconomic environment.” Total 2024 sales are now expected in the range of $82.7-$83.2 billion (was $84-$85 billion), with comparable store sales expected to be down 3.5%-4% (was -2% to -3%). Adjusted operating income as a percentage of sales is targeted in the range of 12.4%-12.5% (was 12.6%-12.7%). Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected in the range of $11.70-$11.90 (was $12.00-$12.30). Our $230 fair value estimate of Lowe’s remains unchanged at this time. Shares yield 1.9%. Aug 19, 2024
Gilead Raises Non-GAAP Diluted Earnings Outlook for 2024
Image Source: Gilead. Looking to full-year 2024, Gilead expects total product sales of $27.1-$27.5 billion, unchanged from its prior outlook. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share is now targeted in the range of $3.60-$3.90, compared to $3.45-$3.85 previously. At the end of the quarter, Gilead had $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which was down from the $8.4 billion mark as of the end of last year due to its $3.9 billion acquisition of CymaBay Therapeutics and a $1.75 billion repayment of senior notes. All told, we liked Gilead's second quarter results and its raised non-GAAP earnings per share guidance. Shares yield 4.2% at the time of this writing. Aug 19, 2024
Energy Transfer Raises 2024 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance, Units Yield 7.8%
Image Source: Energy Transfer. Looking to full-year 2024, Energy Transfer's adjusted EBITDA is now targeted in the range of $15.3-$15.5 billion, compared to its previous guidance of between $15-$15.3 billion. The updated guidance includes the impact of its WTG Midstream acquisition as well as outperformance in its base business. Energy Transfer’s fundamental momentum has translated into improved credit ratings, too, with Moody’s upgrading its senior unsecured credit rating to Baa2 in June 2024 (long-term debt totaled $57.4 billion at the end of the quarter). Though its debt level is difficult to get comfortable with, it's encouraging to see the improved adjusted EBITDA guidance as well as Energy Transfer's ability to cover distributions with traditional free cash flow. Units yield 7.8% at the time of this writing. Aug 16, 2024
Deere’s Fiscal Third Quarter Results Reveal Challenging Conditions in the Global Agricultural and Construction Sectors
Image Source: Deere & Company. Looking to all of fiscal 2024, Deere continues to expect weak top-line performance across its portfolio. Production & Precision Agriculture net sales are expected to fall 20%-25%, Small Ag & Turf net sales are expected to decline at a similar pace, while Construction & Forestry net revenues are expected to drop 10%-15% on the year. Financial Services net income is targeted at $720 million for fiscal 2024. Deere ended the quarter with a hefty net debt position. Though Deere’s top line continues to face pressure, and its balance sheet isn’t as strong as we would like, management did reaffirm its net income outlook for fiscal 2024 at approximately $7 billion, which was above the consensus forecast. Shares of Deere yield 1.6%. Aug 16, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 16
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Aug 15, 2024
Walmart Raises Its Fiscal 2025 Outlook
Image Source: Walmart. Walmart’s adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 is now targeted in the range of $2.35-$2.43 (was $2.23-$2.37). The company ended the quarter with total debt of $47 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $8.8 billion. Walmart hauled in $5.9 billion in free cash flow during the first six months of the year, well in excess of the $3.3 billion it paid in dividends over the same time period. We liked Walmart’s second quarter report, its raised outlook for fiscal 2025, and the company’s very healthy dividend. Shares yield 1.2% at the time of this writing.
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