Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Oct 19, 2022

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!
We're excited to say that we're adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com.

Aug 28, 2022

We've Suspended Coverage of Stocks in the Disruptive Innovation Industry
Image Source: Virgin Galactic. --- We've suspended coverage of stocks in the 'Disruptive Innovation' industry. Order the Exclusive publication to gain access to idea generation that covers some of the most innovative stocks. As a member to the Exclusive publication, you'll receive one income idea, one capital appreciation idea, and one short idea consideration each month! --- The ‘Disruptive Innovation’ industry is unique in almost every way. The companies included don’t necessarily share a similar traditional industry or sector make-up, but they do share one big thing in common: They continue to disrupt the traditional way of doing things. Carvana is changing how consumers buy used cars, Roku is leading the streaming charge against linear TV, Teradyne's industrial robotics technology is fascinating, Beyond Meat is working to alter the substance of the meat products industry, Virgin Galactic wants to make spaceflight accessible for private individuals, Uber is changing how we think about getting from point A to point B through ridesharing, Penn National is aggressively expanding into sports betting with its investment in Barstool Sports, CRISPR Therapeutics' revolutionary gene-editing technology may offer a path to curative solutions for the worst diseases, Wayfair is disrupting how we buy home goods, ETSY is carving out a niche online marketplace in craft items, while Zoom Video has come of age during the outbreak of COVID-19. Others included in this list of stock reports have been around for a while, but are still innovating to meet customer needs. Monster Beverage continues to reinvent the energy drink market, Boston Beer has found new life with its portfolio of new brands, and even GameStop is seeking to find its place after the meme-stock frenzy. There are other companies in this industry and sure to be many more added in the future.

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Nov 3, 2021

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run
“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached during 2021. Though traditional valuation multiples may seem stretched by most measures, many market bellwethers have huge net cash positions and tremendous free cash flow growth potential. We expect the equity markets to continue to be led by large cap growth.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Oct 10, 2021

PepsiCo Flexes Its Pricing Power
Image Shown: PepsiCo Inc is adeptly navigating various inflationary, labor, and logistical hurdles. Investors have started to warm back up to the name and its impressive pricing power over the past several months. On October 5, beverage and snack giant PepsiCo reported third-quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended September 4, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. PepsiCo also raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2021 in conjunction with the report.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

May 4, 2021

Video: Apple’s Cash Based Sources of Intrinsic Value and Dividend Health
Image Shown: Inside an Apple store. Source: Valuentum. Video shown: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson walks through Apple's financial statements to explain the cash-based sources of intrinsic value and how net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow are key sources of dividend health. This 10-minute video clip is part of a 3+ hour presentation on financial statement analysis provided in April 2021.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Nov 12, 2020

Altria May Never Make A Comeback
Image Source: Altria. Altria’s core business is under attack from almost every front, and the trend toward investing in ESG-friendly (Environment, Social and Corporate Governance) names has the company’s investor basing shrinking by the day. Aside from cigarettes, Altria has exposure to cigars, smokeless tobacco (UST), wine (Ste. Michelle), oral nicotine pouches, AB-InBev, JUUL, cannabinoid company Cronos, among other interests, but it’s clear the company’s back is against the wall as it struggles to diversify. A huge misstep with JUUL that cost it billions, very tight dividend coverage with earnings and free cash flow, a huge net debt position that will be tough to pay down given dividend obligations, and a lofty dividend yield that speaks more to risk than anything else should give investors pause. We don’t expect trouble at Altria anytime soon, but we think the red flag will go up if it ever starts to look to unload its stake in AB-InBev. If that happens, investors should run for the hills, in our view. Altria may never make a comeback, and we’ve been out of the name since it announced the deal with JUUL back in December 2018. Our fair value estimate stands at $42 per share.