Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 19, 2022

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Continues to Deliver!
Image: The year-to-date simulated performance of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which continues to hold up well during 2022, while offering an attractive forward estimated dividend yield. Data retrieved interim session October 19.Valuentum's newsletter product suite continues to deliver in good times and bad. For those of you interested in high dividend paying stocks, we offer a High Yield Dividend Newsletter and a simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which has been holding up well amid the weakness across both the stock and bond markets this year. Based on our calculations, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio now boasts an estimated forward dividend yield of ~5.44% and is down only approximately 10% on a price-only basis so far this year. Even though this year has been tough, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio's track record speaks to fantastic stock selection and portfolio construction! But why: Well, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), which many use to approximate the performance of REITs, is down ~32.6% so far this year, while the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) is down ~39.4%. The S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, is down ~23.3% year-to-date. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio has even outpaced bonds, as measured by the AGG, which is down ~16.8% this year, data according to Seeking Alpha. Perhaps the best benchmark for the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, however, is the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD), and this one is down ~13.6% this year, while only sporting a forward estimated dividend yield of ~4.3%, both stats according to Seeking Alpha. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio simply is delivering for members!

Oct 10, 2022

Stay Away from Mortgage REITs!
Image Source: Mortgage REITs have underperformed the broader stock market for years, and we don't think individual investors and financial advisors should be dabbling in the mortgage markets via these instruments. As we have said time and time again, stay away from mortgage REITs!

Aug 19, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 19
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Mar 18, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week March 18
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jan 14, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week January 14
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jun 24, 2021

Mortgage REITs Have Underperformed Significantly the Past Several Years
Image: An ETF that tracks the mortgage REIT industry has fallen more than 31% on a price-only basis, while an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 has advanced more than 160% on a price-only basis, as measured from May 2013. The yields on mortgage REIT instruments are certainly very tempting, but the payouts just haven’t been high enough to offset their price weakness as book values continue to whipsaw around along with interest rates. We thought it time to take a victory lap on our call made years ago, and we think avoiding mortgage REITs continues to make a lot of sense for most long-term investors.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 21, 2021

ICYMI: Valuentum's Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks' Memo: "Something of Value"
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks' latest memo, "Something of Value," January 11, 2021.

Nov 16, 2020

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process
With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company's revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There's a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Aug 21, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week August 21
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.