Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 1, 2023

ICYMI: The Impact Rising Interest Rates Have on Equity REITs
Image: REITs have not performed as well as one might have thought. The Vanguard REIT ETF has underperformed the broader market considerably since 2015, while dividends per share have not grown much, if at all, since 2005. Source: Vanguard. The question on most everyone's minds: How will equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) fare in the current rising interest-rate environment? The topic has long been debated and studied, and there are myriad opinions on the subject. From where we stand, however, there are a two main moving parts consisting of fundamental and investment dynamics that investors should be aware of. Let's have a look.

Mar 30, 2023

Dividends, Dividends, Dividends
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Nelson shares three unique insights on dividends not commonly discussed among investors. The transcript of the video can be found in this article.

Mar 23, 2023

The Dividend Cushion Ratio: Unadjusted Is Less Subjective, Adjusted Is More Subjective
Image Source: Mike Lawrence. Question: I'm a subscriber. I'm looking at your Dividend Report for Enterprise Product Partners. It says your Valuentum Adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio for EPD is 1.8 (a ratio that includes future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), but several lines below it says the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, which is your regular normal ratio (a ratio that does not include future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), is 0.22. Please explain the difference between the two ratios, and what is considered a good ratio for the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, what is an excellent score, what is neutral and what is poor? Also, how much relative importance should I give to each ratio? Also, further down in the section on Unadjusted Dividend Cushion, the chart of EPD has a large negative number in the blue bar, and your text says: "Generally speaking, the greater the 'blue bar' to the right is in the positive, the more durable a company's dividend, and the greater the 'blue bar' to the right is in the negative, the less durable a company's dividend." So that means that EPD's dividend isn't durable, yet your report earlier says that EPD's Dividend Safety rating is GOOD. Can you elaborate?

Jan 20, 2023

Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?
REITs, as measured by the Vanguard ETF (VNQ), have generated a total return of 39.5% since the beginning of 2015 through the end of 2022, an eight-year period that has translated into a measly compound annual return of just 4.25%. This compares to a total return of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) of 116.3%, which translates into a compound annual return of 10.1% over the same time period. Not only have REITs underperformed terribly during the past 8 years, but there have been more than 100 dividend cuts by REITs over this time period, too. REITs just aren’t what some make them out to be. Be careful.

Dec 21, 2022

Our Reports on the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Our stock reports on the diversified REIT sector can be found in this article. Reports include DLR, FRT, O, REG, SPG, PEAK, OHI, VTR, WELL, PSA, EQIX, CUBE, EXR, IRM.

Dec 7, 2022

REITs May Continue to Face Pressure
Image: The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. Equity and mortgage REITs have been under considerable pressure during 2022. Institutional investors seem to be fleeing the sector, but retail investor interest still seems unusually high. We think this might be a tell-tale sign that retail investors could end up getting burned, if they haven’t been already by the terrible performance across the sector so far in 2022. Withdrawals on non-publicly traded REITs are soaring, and SL Green’s dividend cut may be the first of many in the sector to come. We only include a select few REITs across our simulated newsletter portfolios.

Oct 30, 2022

Something New!
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.

Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!

Oct 19, 2022

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Continues to Deliver!
Image: The year-to-date simulated performance of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which continues to hold up well during 2022, while offering an attractive forward estimated dividend yield. Data retrieved interim session October 19.Valuentum's newsletter product suite continues to deliver in good times and bad. For those of you interested in high dividend paying stocks, we offer a High Yield Dividend Newsletter and a simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which has been holding up well amid the weakness across both the stock and bond markets this year. Based on our calculations, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio now boasts an estimated forward dividend yield of ~5.44% and is down only approximately 10% on a price-only basis so far this year. Even though this year has been tough, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio's track record speaks to fantastic stock selection and portfolio construction! But why: Well, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), which many use to approximate the performance of REITs, is down ~32.6% so far this year, while the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) is down ~39.4%. The S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, is down ~23.3% year-to-date. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio has even outpaced bonds, as measured by the AGG, which is down ~16.8% this year, data according to Seeking Alpha. Perhaps the best benchmark for the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, however, is the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD), and this one is down ~13.6% this year, while only sporting a forward estimated dividend yield of ~4.3%, both stats according to Seeking Alpha. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio simply is delivering for members!