Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 30, 2022

Big Changes in the Auto Industry as Chip Shortages, Supply Chain Issues, and Rising Input Costs Complicate Matters; Tesla and Ferrari Our Two Favorite Names
Image: Ferrari’s fundamental momentum has been strong of late. Image Source: Ferrari N.V. 2022 Globe Newswire. The auto industry perhaps has changed more than any other industry the past five years. First, it was Ford that said it wouldn’t make passenger cars anymore, except for its iconic Mustang. Then, the European Union said that it would eventually end the internal combustion engine (ICE) by 2035. Then, Tesla reached over $1,200 per share and over a $1 trillion market capitalization. Can you imagine a world where Ford is not making sedans, the once modern-marvel of the internal combustion engine is dying, and where one car maker is worth as much as the next nine car makers combined? Certainly, a lot has changed in the auto industry during the past decade, and we haven’t dabbled much in the auto sector as it relates to idea generation due in part to the industry’s fast-changing backdrop. That doesn’t mean that we’re not fans of the auto space and its promising long-term opportunities, particularly with electric vehicles (EVs). It just means that we think there are better stories elsewhere, as in ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios. However, if we had to pick two of our favorite auto names to consider, they would be Tesla and Ferrari, even as we note General Motors and Ford both trade at mid-single-digit earnings multiples. That said, investors don’t necessarily have to take on the risks of automakers, especially as the group deals with chip shortages, supply chain issues, and margin pressures from higher input costs. The cyclicality of many of the operators and the reality that operating leverage cuts both ways (and is quite painful during difficult economic times) are risks that perhaps won’t ever go away. That said, exposure to the auto space via Tesla or Ferrari could work nicely in a broadly diversified equity portfolio should risk-seeking investors be so inclined. These two names remain on our radar.

Jan 27, 2022

Net Cash Rich Tesla Reports Solid Free Cash Flow, Closes Out 2021 on a High Note
Image Shown: A look at Tesla Inc’s new ‘Gigafactory’ manufacturing facility in Austin, Texas, that is currently under development. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2021 IR Shareholder Deck. On January 26, Tesla reported that it had produced ~306,000 vehicles and delivered ~309,000 vehicles during the final quarter of 2021. The electric vehicle (‘EV’) and battery maker beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates in the fourth quarter as it continued to successfully ramp its production capabilities. We plan to fine-tune our cash flow valuation model covering Tesla to take its latest earnings report into account, but we still expect the point fair value estimate to be below where shares are trading at the time of this writing (~$937 per share).

Oct 5, 2021

Innovative Fuel Cell Company Ceres Power Has a Stellar Growth Outlook
Image Shown: Ceres Power Holdings plc is a pioneer in the fuel cell industry. If Ceres Power and its strategic partners are successful, Ceres Power could offer investors ample capital appreciation upside though we caution that this is a highly speculative name. Image Source: Ceres Power Holdings Plc – First Half of 2021 Interim Report IR Presentation. Ceres Power is a pioneer in an attractive industry and continues to secure crucial strategic collaboration agreements with major industrial players worldwide. The company’s capital appreciation upside potential could be quite substantial, especially as products built on its SteelCell technology progress from the pilot phase to the commercial phase, providing its core licensing and royalties business a major uplift. Its SOEC offerings could be another source of tremendous long-term upside, though again, these are still early days. Investors should be aware of this innovative company.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

Apr 27, 2021

Tesla Scaling Up Nicely
Image Shown: Tesla is steadily working towards bringing another manufacturing facility online in the US, this time near Austin, Texas. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Shareholder Letter Covering the First Quarter of 2021. Electric vehicle (‘EV’) giant Tesla continues to impress as it smashed past consensus top- and bottom-line estimates when it reported first quarter 2021 earnings on April 26. The company delivered 184,800 vehicles (182,780 Model 3/Y variants and 2,020 Model S/X variants) and produced 180,338 vehicles in the first quarter of this year, though we note that Tesla only produced Model 3/Y variants last quarter and Model S/X vehicle deliveries were met via its inventory. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla’s ‘automotive revenues’ of $9.0 billion were up 75% year-over-year, its GAAP revenues of $10.4 billion were up 74% year-over-year, and its GAAP net income came in north of $0.4 billion (up sharply from year-ago levels).

Feb 23, 2021

Innovative Fuel Cell Company Ceres Power Has a Stellar Growth Outlook
Image Source: Ceres Power Holdings plc – Interim 2020 Results IR Presentation. UK-based Ceres Power is a pioneer in the fuel cell industry, with its SteelCell technology leading the way. The company has historically been unprofitable, though it aims to create a sizable high-margin licensing business over the coming years. Ceres Power is working with its strategic partners on pilot projects that aim to prove the viability of its technology. This past December, Bosch, one of Ceres Power’s strategic partners and largest shareholders, announced that starting in 2024, it would commence commercial-level production of fuel cells utilizing Ceres Power’s technology. Shares of Ceres Power are on a powerful upward trend of late as its cash flow growth trajectory is now quite promising. The firm’s net cash position (at the end of June 2020) will help the company cover its cash flow outspend as Ceres Power scales up its licensing business while continuing to make major R&D investments. Current and future support from national governments worldwide underpins the promising outlook for the fuel cell industry. Capital appreciation seeking investors should keep Ceres Power on their radar.

Feb 14, 2021

Earnings Roundup: DIS, GM, PEP, TWTR, UA
Image Shown: A look at the 2022 GM HUMMER EV pickup truck that is due to launch by the end of this year. Image Source: General Motors Company – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Earnings season is roaring along, and we cover the reports of five more companies across different sectors in this article (Disney, General Motors, Pepsi, Twitter, and Under Armour). The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic continues to loom large, though we are encouraged by reports from Moderna that its existing COVID-19 vaccine approved for emergency use is at least somewhat effective at treating variants of the virus according to initial clinical trials (a lot more work needs to be done on the subject). Global health authorities are working to put an end to the public health crisis, though COVID-19 virus variants have created additional obstacles on that front. However, we still expect the COVID-19 pandemic will be brought under control sooner than many expect as global vaccine distribution efforts become more widespread and efficient. A common theme across earnings reports is that (most) of the companies in this article view their outlooks favorably, though serious short-term headwinds remain in some instances. Video streaming services continue to be in high demand, major automakers are stepping up their EV investments, demand for consumer staples products remains healthy, the digital advertising market is resilient, and retailers are leaning heavily on their omni-channel selling capabilities to ride out the storm caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Jan 5, 2021

The Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Is Hot and Getting Hotter
Image Shown: A look at Tesla Inc’s new Gigafactory factory (Model Y body shop) in Shanghai, China. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. The electric vehicle (‘EV’) market is hot and getting hotter. Aided by a combination of supportive government policies such as subsides for EVs (purchase tax credits, manufacturing tax credits), plans to ban the sale of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (‘ICE’) in the coming years, and shifting consumer preferences (households preferring to appear “green”), the long-term outlook for EV sales is quite bright. Tesla is the posterchild of the EV boom given its first-mover advantage, though competitive headwinds are rising. Legacy auto manufacturers are looking to bulk up their EV offerings while new market entrants such as Lordstown Motors and privately-held Rivian, are set to further disrupt the industry. Ford Motor invested in Rivian back in 2019 to bulk up its presence in the EV market. By the middle of 2021, Rivian aims to begin deliveries of its EV pickup truck in the US, the R1T. Lordstown Motors also aims to bring an EV pickup truck to market, named the Endurance, with deliveries set to begin in early-2021. However, as global EV sales appear set to grow immensely, there is room for a number of winners in this space. Back in July 2020, privately-held Deloitte estimated that global EV sales will grow from an estimated 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million in 2025 and then to 31.1 million by 2030, good for annual compound growth of about 29% in the coming decade, according to the research firm. EV sales in China are expected to represent about half of global EV sales in 2030, according to Deloitte, followed by the European market representing just over one quarter of global EV sales in 2030.

Nov 5, 2020

General Motors Playing Catch Up
Image: Hummer EV. According to General Motors’ website, the Hummer EV will be a “zero emissions, zero limits all-electric supertruck.” Today’s GM is in much better shape than it was during the Great Financial Crisis when it succumbed to legacy issues as evidenced by its resilience during the COVID-19 meltdown, but the reality is that operationally-leveraged cyclicals with sticky costs, messy financials, and encroaching rivals don’t tend to command a large multiple. Throw in the opaqueness of its financing arm, which adds $88.9 billion in long-term debt to the balance sheet as of the end of last year, and GM becomes too difficult a stock to own, in our view. At $36 each, GM’s shares may have bounced back a bit too much based on our fair value estimate.

Sep 9, 2020

Our Thoughts on the Widespread Launch of 5G Services
Image Shown: The evolution of wireless networks and telecommunications technology over the years. Image Source: Intel Corporation – November 2019 State of 5G Presentation. The rollout of 5G telecommunication networks is upon us and we want to draw our members' attention to some of the key companies with meaningful exposure to this space. Many are excited about what opportunities 5G technology could enable. To ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic we prefer large-cap tech companies with pristine balance sheets, quality cash flow profiles, and firms whose growth outlooks are underpinned by secular growth tailwinds. Between Broadcom and Qualcomm, we are keeping a closer eye on Qualcomm given its more manageable net debt load and the company’s aforementioned near-term catalysts.