Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 2, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Dick’s Sporting Goods Is Firing on All-Cylinders; Raises Guidance (Again) While Generating Gobs of Free Cash Flow
Image Source: Valuentum. On November 23, Dick’s Sporting Goods reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 30, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The sporting goods retailer once again raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2021 in conjunction with its latest earnings report. Dick’s Sporting Goods also raised its guidance when reporting its fiscal second quarter earnings back in August 2021 and its fiscal first quarter earnings back in May 2021, highlighting management’s growing confidence in the company’s near term performance. Though shares of DKS sold off following its latest earnings update, likely due to concerns over inflationary pressures and supply chain hurdles, Dick’s Sporting Goods’ outlook remains rock-solid. We continue to like the firm as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Aug 27, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Dick’s Sporting Goods Announces Great News
Image Shown: Dividend Growth Idea Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc has put up tremendous performance of late. On August 25, Dick’s Sporting Goods reported second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended July 31, 2021) that soared past consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Furthermore, Dick’s Sporting Goods raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2021, doubled its minimum share buyback program to $0.4 billion for fiscal 2021, increased its regular quarterly dividend by 21% on a sequential basis to $0.4375 per share (bringing its annualized payout up to $1.75 per share), and announced a special dividend of $5.50 per share during its latest earnings update. We are incredibly pleased with the company’s performance of late. Dick’s Sporting Goods is included as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Jun 25, 2021

Nike Beats Estimates Aided By Its Omni-Channel Selling Strength
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc popped higher after its latest earnings report. On June 24, Nike reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended May 31, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of NKE popped higher after the report. The top end of our fair value estimate range for Nike sits at $160 per share, meaningfully above where shares of NKE are trading at as of this writing--even after the latest bounce in its stock price.

Jun 24, 2021

Lululemon’s Growth Outlook Is Bright
Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Infographic. Athleisure wear maker Lululemon Athletica recently reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended May 2, 2021) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Its company-operated stores posted net revenue growth of 106% year-over-year as global economies began to recover from the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The company’s direct-to-consumer (‘DTC’) net revenue grew 55% year-over-year (the e-commerce side of its business) last fiscal quarter, keeping in mind its DTC business more than doubled its net revenues in fiscal 2020. We were impressed with Lululemon’s latest results, and there could be room for shares of LULU to continue climbing higher. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $450 per share (well above where LULU is trading at as of this writing).

May 27, 2021

Dick’s Sporting Goods Soars, Reports Record First-Quarter Sales, Highest-Ever Quarterly Earnings!
Image Shown: Dick's Sporting Goods' stock price soared following the release of its first-quarter fiscal 2021 earnings report and robust guidance for the remainder of the year. We added the sporting goods retailer to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio last November, and we continue to like shares. Dick’s Sporting Goods surprised the market to the upside in a big way when it reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 on May 26. Management is targeting non-GAAP earnings per share for fiscal 2021 in the range of $8.00-$8.70, implying shares of the sporting goods retailer are trading at just 11.3 times the high end of this year’s earnings guidance. A solid balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation support the company’s dividend growth profile. We continue to like how Dick’s Sporting Goods is positioned for the long haul, and it remains an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Mar 22, 2021

Nike’s Digital Strategy Supports Its Future Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion Prospects
Image Shown: Since announcing the launch of its Consumer Direct Offense initiative in June 2017, Nike has done a stellar job building its omni-channel selling capabilities. The company’s digitally-oriented direct-to-consumer strategy offers it the opportunity to enhance both its long-term revenue growth outlook and operating margin expansion potential. On March 18, Nike reported mixed earnings though its near-term guidance indicates its financial performance will continue to rebound after taking a beating from the COVID-19 pandemic. As of this writing, shares of NKE are trading in the upper bound of our fair value estimate range, indicating shares are roughly fairly valued at this time. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has made it clear that companies with strong omni-channel selling capabilities are in a much better position than their physical-store dependent peers. Home delivery, curbside pickup, and order online/pickup in-store represent some of the main ways companies are meeting demand received through their digital platforms. E-commerce demand has boomed over the past several quarters and that trajectory has legs, in our view. Though e-commerce was already steadily becoming a larger part of the global economy over the past two decades (adoption rates vary across geographical regions), the pandemic has accelerated that trend. Nike recognized the need to develop omni-channel selling capabilities earlier than most, and part of that strategy involved building out an ecosystem of mobile apps and related websites. The apparel, footwear, equipment, and accessory company announced its ‘Consumer Direct Offense’ initiative back in June 2017 and the goal is to build up a sizable direct-to-consumer (‘DTC’) business with a large e-commerce component. The company has its fitness apps Nike Run Club and Nike Training Club along with the Nike app, which supports its e-commerce operations, and its Nike SNKRS app that focuses on footwear. Its digital strategy also involved Nike parting ways with Amazon a couple of years ago so Nike could better control its digital strategy. On March 18, Nike reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended February 28, 2021) that saw its ‘NIKE Direct’ sales grow by 20% year-over-year, hitting $4.0 billion.

Mar 10, 2021

Dividend Growth Portfolio Idea Dick’s Sporting Goods Raises Dividend 16%!
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Dick's Sporting Goods put up its best same-store-sales growth rate in history during 2020. We continue to like shares of the sporting goods retailer in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Dick’s Sporting Goods showcased the strength of its business model during 2020, and while it may not be able to duplicate the results in 2021, we think the future is bright. Free cash flow generation trends are solid, its balance sheet is healthy, and dividend coverage is sound. As more and more consumers choose healthier lifestyles, Dick’s Sporting Goods remains in a sweet spot to capture continued demand. With a solid 2% dividend yield, the company remains a holding in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We expect continued strong dividend growth for years to come.

Feb 26, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 26
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 21, 2021

ICYMI: Valuentum's Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks' Memo: "Something of Value"
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks' latest memo, "Something of Value," January 11, 2021.