Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 29, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Dec 10, 2023

ESG Matters: Applied Materials Faces Criminal Investigation
Image: Applied Materials’ shares faced considerable pressure November 17 as news that it had violated export restrictions to China came to light. On November 16, Reuters reported that Applied Materials allegedly evaded export restrictions by shipping hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment to a subsidiary in South Korea before sending it to China’s biggest chipmaker SMIC. This alleged miscue falls under the Governance (G) category of ESG investing, and shares of Applied Materials have yet to recover from the aggressive sell-off it experienced during the trading session November 17. Though the results of the Department of Justice investigation are still pending, this is quite the black eye for Applied Materials, and we view this as a serious infraction given the U.S.’s stated efforts to keep advanced chips and chipmaking equipment out of China for national security reasons. We’re keeping a close eye on this story, as further news regarding the matter comes to light.

Nov 27, 2023

Nvidia’s Shares Could Run Higher Even More!
Image: Nvidia has been a market darling, and the firm's equity looks to have further upside potential on the basis of our valuation. On November 21, market darling Nvidia Corp. reported excellent fiscal third quarter results for the period ending October 29 that showcased the power behind the revolution in artificial intelligence. The company’s revenue hit a record, advancing more than three-fold on a year over year basis thanks to strength in its Data Center business. Its non-GAAP earnings were up six-fold from the year-ago period, and the firm continues to haul in tremendous free cash flow. We’ve raised our fair value estimate of Nvidia to $606 per share, and we think the company’s shares could continue to run higher.

Nov 2, 2023

AMD Continues to Enhance Artificial Intelligence Capabilities
On October 31, Advanced Micro Devices reported solid third-quarter results with revenue advancing 4% on a year-over-year basis and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in slightly better than expectations, with net income up more than four-fold, to $299 million. Management expressed excitement about demand for its Ryzen 7000 series PC processors and noted that its data center business is progressing well thanks to its 4th Gen EPYC CPU portfolio and Instinct MI300 accelerator shipments across various markets, including artificial intelligence [AI].

Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Sep 24, 2023

Report Updates: Amazon Registers the Lowest Rating on Our Scale
Check out the latest report updates on the website. The biggest takeaway of this refresh is that Amazon is poised to generate significantly negative free cash flow in 2023, and while we think the firm will turn this measure around materially in the long haul, shares are coming out as overvalued on our discounted cash-flow process, while technically its stock price is breaking down. An overvalued stock on both an absolute and relative value basis with negative technical/momentum indicators registers the worst rating on our methodology, the Valuentum Buying Index (1=worst, 10-best).

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Sep 13, 2023

Apple’s Big “Wonderlust” Event Is Business as Usual
Image Source: Apple. Apple Inc. hosted its widely-anticipated “Wonderlust” event. The market was anticipating several new products, and Apple delivered. The firm’s iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15, Apple Watch Series 9, and Apple Watch Ultra 2 will go a long way to retaining share in smartphones and wearable devices, but the company opted to leave prices unchanged. Many had been expecting a price increase, but we’re not reading too much into Apple’s decision to leave them unchanged, given economic uncertainty in the U.S., Huawei’s release of its latest phone (the Mate 60 Pro), and rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China.