Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Restasis Patent Protection Weighing on Shares of Allergan
Image Source: Allergan. We have witnessed numerous examples over the years of biotech/pharma companies selling-off over fears of the length of patent protection on an essential product. The concern is well-founded--if the company relies on the product for a significant portion of sales, it may be challenging to replace, especially if the clinical pipeline is relatively bereft of viable next-generation products. We believe the recent sell-off in the shares of Allergan may now be wholly factoring in the loss of patent protection of one of its core assets in Restasis, and the equity may not be getting enough credit for its highly diversified revenue stream.

Oct 12, 2017

An Overview on Valuing Junior Biotech Companies -- Does Clovis Fit the Bill?
The biotech industry remains one of the most fascinating yet perplexing industries for investors. Anecdotes of the entry-stage biotech with a home-run new therapy are often romanticized, but the reality is the vast majority of molecules fail in various stages of clinical testing. Due to the boom-bust nature of the industry, many are wary of investing in the space, and traditional valuation metrics are not as useful due to a large number of such speculative entities being in the pre-revenue stage. With this in mind, let’s take a glimpse into our thought process when evaluating upstart biotech companies.

Oct 5, 2017

The Legal Battle Between Regeneron and Amgen Heats Up
Image Source: Regeneron. The legal battle between two of the titans of the biotech world heated up further with a recent ruling overturning the injunction of a critical asset. We are updating our thesis in light of current events.

Sep 22, 2017

Best in Biotech? Global Blood Therapeutics' Promising Treatment for Sickle Cell Anemia
Image Source: National Institute for Health. We remain impressed with the depth of research conducted over a wide host of disease states. Though a molecule may appear to hold significant promise in the pre-clinical phase, we have often witnessed the unique ability of the human body to react to various treatments. Often an unwanted side effect can torpedo a treatment, thus relegating millions of dollars of research obsolete. However, if a promising molecule is brought to market, the payoff is often well worth the effort. Our goal is to sift through the various clinical data to unearth the most promising treatments with the understanding that nothing is assured until the FDA authorizes the product for marketing in the US. We believe we have identified a promising junior biotech in the rare drug field with a promising treatment for sickle-cell anemia.

Sep 14, 2017

Upadacitinib Posts Impressive Data for AbbVie
Image Source: AbbVie. In the pharmaceutical realm, the productivity of the clinical pipeline is essential to replace the loss of revenue due to an expiration of the patent life of a product. AbbVie is facing the monumental task of having to diversify away from the top-selling pharmaceutical product in the world with little in the way of assurances the transition will be a success. We are pleased with the recent data release on Upadacitinib as we view the molecule as AbbVie’s top R&D product.

Sep 11, 2017

Canakinumab Posts Some Impressive Data For Novartis
Image Source: Novartis. We remain impressed with the depth of the clinical pipeline that is currently being brought out to market by the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Novartis. We closely follow the data delivered from clinical trials to gauge the potential for the pipeline; in the case of Novartis, we feel the strength of the emerging pipeline bodes very well for continued dividend growth over the next few years. In this piece, we will detail the clinical results for Canakinumab, as we feel the molecule will nicely complement Novartis’ burgeoning cardiovascular unit.

Jul 31, 2017

A Review of Johnson and Johnson’s Pharmaceutical Division
Image Source: J&J. Let’s take a deep dive into Johnson and Johnson’s pharmaceutical division Janssen Pharmaceuticals. Janssen traditionally serves as an area of clinical innovation adding an element of growth to the more stable product categories such as consumer health. However, there may be a few cracks in the Janssen revenue stream that could make growth at J&J harder to come by over the next few years.

Jul 12, 2017

Analyzing the S&P SPDR Biotech ETF
Source: S&P SPDR Biotech ETF (XBI). ETFs are rapidly becoming the preferred investment vehicle to gain broad exposure to a particular sector. The biotech industry is no different with two distinct ETFs dominating the niche. The article discusses the unique characteristics of the SPDR Biotech ETF to determine the merits of the idea.

Jun 29, 2017

Novartis Is Building a Significant Cardiovascular Franchise
Image shown: The performance of Novartis since the beginning of 2014.One of the more interest times to consider speculating in the biotech/pharmaceutical space is in advance of the identification of the full potential of the clinical pipeline. Once investors recognize the full “value” of an entity’s pipeline, they often bid the company’s equity price higher well in advance of what traditional near-term fundamental metrics might indicate. The results recently released by Novartis have significantly solidified its clinical pipeline, in our view. Let’s take a look.

May 26, 2017

Alexion’s Executive Departures and an Update from Regeneron Pharma
Image shown above: Performance of Regeneron since the summer of 2013.An executive scandal continues to mar the performance of Alexion Pharmaceuticals. The CFO has resigned his position effective the end of August, but there is more to this story. Let’s also talk Regeneron.

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