Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 27, 2015

BABA Bounces Big! GMV Growth Solid, Monetization Rate Better
The Chinese e-commerce giant is back on track, and we’re mighty pleased. We continue to believe shares are undervalued by a large margin. If you haven’t viewed our 16-page report on the company to see by how much, please do so.

Sep 25, 2015

Janet Yellen, the Positive GDP Revision, and Nike’s Swoosh
Finally, there’s some good news, but nothing that could change the stormy overall picture.

Sep 15, 2015

As the World Turns
We’re keeping our eyes on a number of things. First, we’re monitoring property prices in Shanghai and in other larger Chinese cities to assess the potential calamity that falling housing prices and deflation would have on the country’s banking sector and the likelihood of contagion via the British banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, and the US ones, namely Citigroup and JP Morgan. Second, we’re watching the price of crude oil closely, as its fall will have huge implications on the earnings trajectory of companies that benefit (airlines, restaurants) as well as the ones that suffer (upstream and energy services). The net effect of falling crude oil prices has thus far been negative for S&P 500 earnings, but this may change as the energy sector becomes an ever-smaller part of index construction. Third, who can forget about the Fed, the expected duration of any tightening monetary cycle, and the resulting implications on dividend-paying stocks as Treasury yields rise?

Sep 14, 2015

The Puzzling Attack on Alibaba
Alibaba is not a “dot-bomb” like the infamous blow-ups in the US in the late 1990s/early 2000s. The Chinese e-commerce giant is significantly profitable and free cash flow positive, and growth prospects are tremendous. Calling for a ~15 times multiple on next year’s earnings, as a large publisher has done, where next year’s earnings are but a fraction of the company’s earnings power 5-10 years from now is an attempt, in our view, to punish the stock at a vulnerable time when global economies are shuddering and the Chinese equity markets continue to face immense pressure. Our estimate of the firm’s long-term intrinsic value is significantly higher than its current market price, but the mounting proliferation of fear may very well hurt shares in the near term.

Sep 11, 2015

Yahoo! Weighing Its Options
Yahoo! is back to work on its Alibaba holding spin-off plans after the IRS rejected its request for a tax-free ruling on the matter.

Sep 8, 2015

Things Are So Bad They’re Actually Good?
Major economies are in recession and others are far from healthy. That has some investors in the US excited.

Aug 27, 2015

New Adds: One Name at a Deep Discount and Another Long-time Favorite
Nibbling at this crazy market, but only a couple small bites.

Aug 24, 2015

The Debt Bubble Is Deflating; Will It Pop?
"What remains to be seen, from our perspective, is whether the collapse in the mining and energy sectors and the crisis in emerging-market currencies will eventually lead to yet another credit crisis, similar to the one that shocked the world in 2008-2009 and brought some well-known names to their knees across the financial sector." -- inside this piece

Aug 20, 2015

The Flight to Safety
The wave of selling may have just begun.

Aug 12, 2015

How Large Will Alibaba Be in 2035… That’s the Right Perspective
We include Alibaba in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as a rare long-term play on China’s e-commerce proliferation.