Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 30, 2019

Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Delivers Again in 2019
 The story of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio this year was one dominated by big tech. Apple trounced the return of what could be considered our benchmark by about 80 percentage points. It basically beat the S&P Dividend ETF SDPR by a factor of about 5 times! 2019 was simply the year to own Apple, and my goodness we had it right near the top of both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. You would think this was a no-brainer, as everyone loves Apple, but many a portfolio manager did not own Apple this year. Apple also upped its dividend 5%+ during 2019...

Dec 19, 2019

2019: Another Market Beating Year for the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio!
We estimate thus far the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio return has beat the S&P 500 by 2.8 percentage points during 2019 (34.4% versus 31.6% for the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY). Our move to overweight Apple, Facebook, and Visa worked out wonderfully for members during 2019. We continue to overweight big winners, and we credit this to our team's conviction in our very best ideas. We also made quite the savvy move in rolling over a solid gain in Chipotle (60%+) into even more shares of Apple stock during the year. We're putting some of the best ideas right in front of our membership in full transparency. Berkshire Hathaway's overweighting added some stability to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, but it was a large drag on returns during the year. This is okay - we like the diversification benefits. 2019 was a very, very difficult year to beat the market, but by our estimates, the Best Ideas Newsletter did so, and by a fair margin, particularly for a large cap orientation. Note this kind of outperformance is unique as many money managers continue to trail their benchmarks during 2019. We credit the outperformance to our team's work ethic and the Valuentum methodology. We are disappointed with the current state of active management, and we are working to develop solutions for our membership. We expect to roll out an important survey in the coming months. We continue to encourage members to add the Exclusive to their membership, if they haven't considered this fantastic publication just yet. More on the Exclusive >> The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is part of a regular premium membership to Valuentum. More here >>

Dec 16, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s Callum Turcan
Callum Turcan helps head up Valuentum’s research product and is co-editor of the company’s newsletters. We sat down with Callum to get his thoughts on new developments in the market and economy. Let’s kick things off with his thoughts on Brexit.

Oct 31, 2019

General Motors’ Cost Savings Plan Still Intact
Image Shown: Shares of General Motors moved higher after its third quarter 2019 earnings report as investors looked past the UAW strike and towards the future, particularly ongoing cost structure improvements. Our fair value estimate for GM stands at $48 per share, and we continue to like the automaker in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. General Motors’ Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.5x provides for solid payout coverage at a time of trade war volatility, and its Cruise division offers plenty of long-term upside as one of the leaders in the autonomous driving space.

Oct 27, 2019

BREAKING: General Motors and the UAW Reach a Deal, Ending the Strike
Image Shown: Shares of General Motors had come under fire over concerns regarding the extended UAW strike over the past several weeks, but with the strike now over, shares of GM may begin to converge back towards their intrinsic value. For General Motors, the company was a bigger winner than at first glance. While the strike reportedly will cost the company north of $2.0 billion on a pre-tax basis, General Motors was successful at getting several of its underutilized factories closed. Americans want SUVs, crossovers, and pickup trucks, not passenger cars, so maintaining factories set up to meet demand that isn’t there just doesn’t make sense on an economic basis. We see this deal as being a win-win and part of General Motors’ ability to continue improving its cost structure by removing underutilized assets from its operations while keeping in mind the company often needs approval from the union in order to do so. The pay increases are reasonable, and given that underutilized factories are shutting down, we think General Motors’ cost structure will keep getting better over the coming quarters and years ahead.

Oct 22, 2019

Ford Provides an Update on Its Self-Driving Plans
Image Source: Ford Motor Company – 2018 Annual Report. Ford reiterated that the goal is to begin commercializing its autonomous driving investments starting in 2021 via a self-driving service, likely something akin to a fleet of taxi cabs with built-in autonomous driving equipment and software. Self-driving taxi cab services could in theory create substantial recurring revenue streams that are less cyclical than demand for automobiles, allowing for smoother financial performance and more consistent free cash flows at an automaker like Ford.

Oct 16, 2019

BREAKING: UAW-GM Reaches Deal, More Coming from Valuentum Soon...
BREAKING: UAW-GM Reaches Deal, More Coming from Valuentum Soon...

Oct 12, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA
Catch up with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles.

Oct 7, 2019

General Motors and the Union Strike!
Image Source: General Motors Company – IR Presentation. A holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, shares of General Motors have come under pressure over the past month from the ongoing strike that involves roughly 46,000-48,000 of its workers (primarily in the US). Our fair value estimate for shares of General Motors stands at $48 per share, well above where GM is trading at as of this writing. We continue to like the name and will be monitoring ongoing UAW-GM talks very closely going forward. Shares of GM yield 4.4% as of this writing.

Oct 1, 2019

Carvana Seeks to Disrupt an Enormous Market
Image Source: Carvana Co. – IR Presentation. Carvana seeks to disrupt the used car and used light truck market in the United States as a leading e-commerce platform for used automobile sales. Perhaps best known for its “car vending machines” that are located in key metropolitan areas across the US, Carvana wants to fundamentally transform the way consumers buy, sell, and ultimately ascertain the proper value for used automobiles. Unlike more recent IPOs of high flying companies with absolutely no chance of becoming profitable, Carvana appears to have a scalable business model. For the established companies in this arena, we caution that Carvana may one day represent a serious competitive threat.