Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 18, 2022

BIN Portfolio ALERT: Removing META, Adding to XLE, Adding MCD and PEP
Image Source: Valuentum. This market is not going to get easier, in our view, and we still believe that 2023 may mark the bottom before a return to the path toward new highs again. However, the erratic volatile trading the past few weeks has us thinking that this is not a market focused on fundamentals, and therefore, we have to hedge our bets accordingly. With “alpha” otherwise we would have missed carved out by "raising" cash in late August before the latest swoon, we’ll now approach newsletter portfolio protection with put option considerations going forward. The changes made today will be reflected in the November 15 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter. Please let us know if you have any questions.

Oct 18, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Outperforming
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc have put up stellar performance so far in 2022. We are huge fans of UnitedHealth Group, and its dividend growth potential remains immense. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $599 per share of UnitedHealth Group, indicating that the health care giant also possesses substantial capital appreciation upside as well. UnitedHealth Group’s acquisition of Change Healthcare is intriguing and should generate material synergies going forward. Looking ahead, we expect that UnitedHealth Group will grow its dividend at a robust pace, aided by its strong free cash flow generating abilities and pristine balance sheet.

Oct 14, 2022

NextEra Energy Is a Great Income Growth Idea
Image Shown: NextEra Energy Inc is a great income growth idea that complies with ESG investing standards as the company is investing heavily in renewable energy power generation assets and battery storage facilities. Image Source: NextEra Energy Inc – June 2022 IR Presentation. NextEra Energy is an attractive dividend growth idea that also complies with ESG investing standards, given its efforts on the renewable energy front. We appreciate the company’s robust capital investment pipeline as that underpins its bright adjusted EPS, operating cash flow, and dividend per share growth outlook through 2025. The utility is best of breed.

Oct 14, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 14
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Oct 12, 2022

Serious Question: What Are You Looking At?
Image: Stocks with the largest 52-week losses, according to YahooFinance. We've handled the worst performers of 2022 quite handily, and the simulated newsletter portfolios are showcasing the importance of our methodology and processes. We expect things to get worse in the economy before they get better, but we maintain our view that there may be nothing better out there than a subscription to Valuentum to navigate these tumultuous times.

Oct 12, 2022

Over the Long Haul, Domino’s Has a Bright Growth Runway Ahead of It
Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – 2022 ICR Conference IR Presentation. Domino’s is contending with substantial near-term headwinds, but its longer-term growth runway remains firmly intact. There is ample room for Domino’s to grow its international unit store count and domestically, Domino’s views its unit store count growth runway favorably. Recently, its unit store count has grown at a robust pace as franchisees are drawn to the attractive unit economics of the company’s stores. We continue to like exposure to shares of Domino’s in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 10, 2022

Recent Fair Value Estimate Updates
Image Source: Valuentum. We’ve made a number of fair value estimate changes across our coverage universe as a result of what we expect to be substantial weakness in the global economy. Many of our fair value estimate adjustments have come in the consumer discretionary sector, but we have also made tweaks to the fair value estimates of companies in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Though 2022 has been a tough year, we’ve been steady at the wheel, calling the nearly unprecedented fall in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio this year, the mid-teens percentage weakness in the SPY following the summer rally, all the while driving “outperformance” through the latest simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio update August 19. Another update will be forthcoming. This year has been tough, but it’s been a lot worse for asset allocators that missed out on the big bull market run in equities if they held a hefty allocation in bonds the past decade. Let’s keep our guards up as this market looks like it might get a lot worse before it gets better.

Oct 10, 2022

Best Idea Vertex Pharma Outperforming in 2022
Image Shown: Shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc, an idea included in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, have performed incredibly well year-to-date through October 2022. Vertex Pharma’s performance this year has been stellar, and its financial position is rock-solid. The company has ample financial firepower to invest heavily towards commercializing its existing drug development pipeline and is well-positioned to ride out the numerous exogenous shocks seen of late (inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and the increasing likelihood of a global recession in the near term). We continue to like shares of VRTX in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 8, 2022

Microsoft Hinted at Trouble in Calendar Q2 But AMD’s Massive $1 Billion Quarterly Q3 Revenue Miss Spells Big Problems for PC Market; Search and News Advertising Revenue Also Likely Weakening Substantially
Image Source: Fritzchens Fritz. Economic conditions have deteriorated rapidly since Microsoft warned about deteriorating PC market demand in July of this year. AMD’s preliminary third-quarter report announced October 6 showed a massive $1 billion miss relative to prior expectations, and we think this is the beginning of a vicious cyclical downturn in the semiconductor industry, with few immune to the troubles, particularly in light of Apple’s warning about iPhone 14 demand. Further, we think search and news advertising has likely deteriorated since the calendar second-quarter reporting season, too, and this doesn’t bode well for the likes of Alphabet and Meta Platforms. Recent news about the strength of Tiktok and the lack of enthusiasm by Meta Platforms’ insiders that are building the metaverse have us thinking that Meta has turned into a value trap. We won’t hesitate to drop shares if the company’s outlook in its third-quarter report comes up short.

Oct 7, 2022

ICYMI: Things Have Changed Fast; Inflation and the Fed Have Damaged the Economy
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. Things have changed fast. Inflation has turned from a positive catalyst in 2021 into a negative catalyst in 2022, all the while the 10-year Treasury rate has soared. We’ve yet to see the impact from a massive negative wealth effect from alternatives, to stocks/bonds, to the U.S. housing market, and the European financial system could eventually need life support as the U.K. bails out pension funds and the sharks start swarming around large European financial institutions. The writing is on the wall for tough times to come in 2023, and things will get worse before they get better. Buckle up because we’re going to be in for a wild ride in the coming 6-12 months, and maybe longer.