Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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May 10, 2021

Inflation! How to Think About Value Duration
Image Shown: Longer-duration free cash flow stocks are more impacted by changes in inflationary expectations and interest rates (up or down) than stable and/or stable and growing free cash flow generators. This example shows the impact of falling interest rates (10%-->5%) on stable versus longer-duration hypothetical future free cash flow streams, all else equal (the opposite would directionally be applicable in a rising interest rate environment). There's nothing 'all else equal' in the real world though. In the event of rising inflationary expectations, we would still expect speculative technology stocks to take the biggest hit. On the other hand, we would expect strong and growing free cash flow powerhouses that can price ahead of inflation such as big cap tech to handle the environment well. Though banks, energy, and the metals and mining sectors may lead the market for some time, we still like large cap growth and big cap tech for the long run. What many may be overlooking is that, for those with pricing power, higher inflationary expectations translate into higher product and service prices, too. Big cap tech (and their pricing power) is well-positioned to handle such an environment. We’re not overreacting in any respect, and we’re not going to chase commodity prices or commodity producers higher. Commodity prices are simply too difficult to predict in almost all cases, and banking entities are far too susceptible to boom-and-bust shocks for us to get comfortable with their long-term investment profiles. All in, we’re sticking with companies with strong net cash positions and future expected free cash flows (and solid dividend health, where applicable). Some of the strongest companies that have these characteristics can be found in large cap growth and big cap tech. Facebook remains our top idea for long-term capital appreciation potential. In the meantime, we’re comfortable watching the market chase a rotation into more speculative areas.

Feb 20, 2020

SmileDirectClub Comes Under Fire
Image Shown: SmileDirectClub has come under tremendous regulatory fire of late, which has aggressively pressured shares of SDC. We covered SmileDirectClub back in September 2019 shortly after its IPO. Since going public at $23 per share (the unconventional orthodontics company’s shares fell aggressively during their first day of trading), shares of SDC have tanked with an eye towards growing regulatory concerns and related obstacles. We don’t think catching a falling knife is a wise idea and see SmileDirectClub’s problems continuing for some time. SmileDirectClub is standing its ground and has been highlighting the many customers it has served, at a much cheaper cost than traditional orthodontist offerings, but the negative press alone will likely make it much tougher to grow going on a fundamental basis given how this negatively impacts its marketing and advertising campaigns. Should SmileDirectClub lose its ability to operate in California, that would have a profound impact on its trajectory.

Sep 24, 2019

The Orthodontics Industry Is Getting Disrupted
Image Source: SmileDirectClub Inc - S-1 SEC Filing. SmileDirectClub, the teledentistry startup that makes 3D-printed clear aligners which are a cheaper alternative to braces (albeit with drawbacks when compared to the traditional braces route), went public this September at $23/share. While SmileDirectClub’s growth trajectory is quite intriguing, we prefer to wait until we get a better idea of the regulatory landscape the start-up faces and what its financial performance will look like now that it’s a public entity in the limelight. For Align, we are staying firmly away from the company as competitive pressures will continue to mount going forward. Neither company pays out a common dividend at this time.