Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 28, 2022

Things Are Bad Out There
The Bank of England’s intervention to stem what might have turned into a “run on the bank” dynamic for pension funds in the country amid a collapsing pound has given rise to the view that the Fed may start to slow its rate of increases amid global uncertainty. We think it’s too early to tell. From our perspective, the Fed remains committed to stomping out inflation, something that it may not truly be able to do, given that interest rate hikes may be too blunt of an instrument to stymie food cost inflation, which remains one of the the biggest inflationary headwinds that is hurting consumer budgets. What is happening on the global stage is quite concerning, and we remain bearish on the equity markets. The bull case may very well be a deep recession in the U.S., where dollar cost averaging in the U.S. markets could be had, followed by sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed, and a return to all-time highs. This is not a time to lose interest, but a time to pay even closer attention to your investments. What you do over the next couple years will have implications on your portfolio 5, 10, and 20 years forward. Let’s keep focused on preserving and building long-term wealth!

Aug 14, 2020

Lloyds Banking Group Is Struggling Against the Tide
Image Shown: Lloyds’ first half results were pretty dismal indeed. Image Source: Lloyds 1H2020 Earnings Presentation. Lloyds Banking Group’s business model focused on being a “digitized, simple low risk, customer focused, U.K. financial services provider” sounds good on the surface, but uncertainty surrounding the U.K’s recovery makes this bank much more risky than some of its U.S. counterparts, in our view. Investors should take note the inherent leverage and riskiness of any banking business model, and Lloyds is no exception.

May 7, 2020

BNP Paribas’ Shares Could Have Upside Potential
Image Source: BNP Paribas 1Q2010 Earnings Presentation. BNP Paribas’ shares are trading at a fraction of tangible book. If the bank can contain its cost of risk through this cycle and produce double-digit returns on tangible equity on the other side of this crisis, shareholders would do quite well in such a scenario. That said, we point out that Europe is overtraded when it comes to banking, which pressures earnings power at even the stronger banks like BNP Paribas. We’re paying close attention to the key banking players in Europe to assess the likelihood of a global financial contagion that may accompany the global pandemic that has become COVID-19.

May 4, 2020

Lloyds Banking Group Navigates Competitive Markets
Image Source: Lloyds. The UK banking market is highly competitive with too many players, and we think this is the cause for the low returns on capital across the cycle. We’re paying close attention to the key banking players in Europe, including Lloyds Banking Group, to assess the likelihood of a global financial contagion that may accompany the global pandemic that has become COVID-19.

Dec 16, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s Callum Turcan
Callum Turcan helps head up Valuentum’s research product and is co-editor of the company’s newsletters. We sat down with Callum to get his thoughts on new developments in the market and economy. Let’s kick things off with his thoughts on Brexit.

Sep 11, 2018

In the News: Brexit, Unilever Simplification, and Geopolitical Uncertainty
Uncertainty related to Brexit continues to loom over the outlooks of multinational companies operating in Europe, and other geopolitical issues are making their presence known on global markets as well.

May 17, 2017

Volatility Spikes, Oh Cisco, the Mighty US Dollar, and More
Image Source: CBOE. Let’s talk about recent market events May 17. There’s a lot going on.

Mar 30, 2017

Who’s Driving Who: The Future of the Automakers
Image Source: HimmelrichPR. Let’s dig into some recent developments surrounding the auto market, and how technological and strategic innovation could reshape the future of the space.

Oct 28, 2016

Podcast: Markets In Motion
The Valuentum analyst team covers market moving information that is top of mind from consumer staples valuations, the political election cycle, utility valuations, energy resource pricing, biotech considerations, Brexit uncertainty and beyond. ~8 minutes.

Oct 27, 2016

Earnings Insight – Visa
Image source: Visa. Let’s cover some ground on Visa’s calendar third-quarter report, its fiscal fourth-quarter release.