Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 1, 2025

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified
Let's examine the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The key takeaways are: 1) without using a discounted cash-flow model, the P/E ratio that should be applied to a company's future expected earnings stream can never be appropriately calculated, and by extension, 2) when investors assign an arbitrary price-to-earnings multiple to a company’s earnings (based on historical trends or industry peers or the market multiple), they are essentially making estimates for all of the drivers behind a discounted cash-flow model in one fell swoop (and sometimes hastily). As earnings for next year are often within sight and can be estimated with some confidence (though this certainly varies among firms), calculating the price-to-earnings ratio via a discounted cash-flow process, in our opinion, is of far greater importance than worrying about whether a firm will beat or miss earnings in its next fiscal year. Because the P/E ratio is a discounted cash-flow model that considers the long-term qualitative dynamics of a particular entity, cash-flow analysis remains the first and most important pillar of our Valuentum Buying Index. And finally, investors cannot ignore valuation analysis or the future. Valuation is an important driver behind stock prices, and it is based on future expectations that can only be estimated. This is just a fact of the markets.

Dec 13, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 13
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Oct 24, 2024

Clean Energy Idea GE Vernova Reaffirms 2024 Guidance
Image: GE Vernova shares have powered higher as of late. GE Vernova reaffirmed its 2024 financial guidance, with revenue now trending towards the higher end of the range of $34-$35 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of 5%-7%, and free cash flow of $1.3-$1.7 billion, also now trending towards the higher end of the free cash flow range. In Power, the company expects mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and 150-200 basis points of organic segment EBITDA margin expansion. In Wind, the company expects flat organic growth, and it expects material segment EBITDA improvement. In Electrification, the company now expects high teens organic revenue growth, up from prior guidance of mid-to-high teens.

Sep 23, 2024

GE Vernova Is a Great Clean Energy Idea
Image: GE Vernova has performed well since it was spun out of GE. GE Vernova is one of our favorite clean energy ideas, and its financials speak to continued strength. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $243 per share.

Jun 25, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Apr 2, 2024

RTX Ends Year with Record Backlog, Shares Yield ~2.4%
Image Source: RTX. With the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas wars still raging, geopolitical tensions continue to be elevated, playing into the hands of defense contracts such as RTX. With an attractive commercial portfolio to boot, RTX is poised to continue to capitalize on both original equipment and higher-margin after-market commercial aerospace sales, too. We’re fans of RTX, and the firm looks to be moving past a costly recall associated with its Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan engines. Shares yield ~2.4% at this time.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Jan 23, 2024

Earnings Roundup: LMT, PG, MMM, GE, JNJ, VZ
Lockheed Martin's backlog hits a new high. Procter & Gamble's gross margin surprises to the upside. 3M's bottom-line outlook for 2024 came in lower than expectations. We're excited about GE's split into two companies this year and are positive on GE Aerospace. Johnson & Johnson reaffirmed its outlook for 2024, while Verizon's free cash flow continues to improve.

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.