Member Articles

Kinder Morgan’s Fair Value: $29 Per Share

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Summary We are initiating institutional equity research coverage of Kinder Morgan (KMI) with a fair value estimate of $29 per share and a Very Poor dividend safety rating. Valuentum has received significant attention in recent weeks following President Brian Nelson’s articles that collectively offered 10 reasons why we expect shares of Kinder Morgan to collapse. We believe prevailing conflicts of interests from brokerage research houses and credit rating organizations have created a debt-infused stock bubble propped up by a “circular flow of unsubstantiated support.” In this article, we provide the backbone of our estimates in calculating Kinder Morgan’s intrinsic worth to further the discussion for investors. ———-  We are initiating institutional equity research coverage of Kinder Morgan with a fair value … Read more

Why Does Valuentum Only Respond to Member Questions?

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Why Does Valuentum Only Respond to Member Questions? The answer is obvious: We always put our members first. “Our research and track record speak for itself. Random and inappropriate comments from anonymous people (robots?) on other websites should not influence your opinion of us…at all. If it has, then the ‘haters’ and ‘Internet trolls’ are winning.” Let’s explain how we always put members first in a recent email exchange. The following has been edited for clarity and to remove names mentioned in the correspondence. ———- Valuentum: FWIW, as a paid subscriber and big fan, your response on other websites on the KMI articles 1) frankly sucks, and 2) has shaken my opinion of Valuentum. For better or worse, your lack of … Read more

Maintaining Our Small Position in HCP

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Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding HCP’s (HCP) shares have been under pressure as of late, and we’re not happy about it. Part of the reason we were drawn to HCP, and we posit that many others were lured by the same attribute, was that it is the only REIT that is included in the coveted S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index. At the time it was added in 2012, there were only 50 companies in all that fit the bill of 1) a market capitalization in excess of $3 billion and 2) a track record of raising their dividends in each of the past 25 years. Though HCP’s fundamental quality has deteriorated since we added it, some of the share price … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending June 26

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending June 26. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Disney (DIS): now $0.66 per share semi-annual dividend, was $1.15 annual dividend. Harman (HAR): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.33. Herman Miller (MLHR): now $0.1475 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. John Wiley & Sons (JW.A): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. Kayne Anderson Midstream/Energy Fund (KMF): now $0.51 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.5025. Matson (MATX): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

Dear member,

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We have been blown away by the attention we’ve received from our warning on Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) valuation and dividend health. Our duty as an independent research provider has never been held in higher esteem as we outlined the prevalent hazards that reside both with sell-side research inundated with conflicts of interest and credit rating assessments that are paid for by the company. Independence will always trump biased analysis, and investors of all types have applauded us for this. We thank you. But being in the spotlight is nothing new for us. In the short history of the Dividend Cushion methodology, we have called in advance the dividend cuts on a few dozen equities: SeaDrill (SDRL), SuperValu (SVU), Roundy’s (RNDY), … Read more

Interest Rates: REITs vs. Financials

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Since the peak of the Financial Crisis, the yield on the 10-year Treasury, a proxy for the risk-free rate within the valuation context, has been in a steady decline (see image above), but a strong bounce in rates since February continues to have the market on edge. Often moving in relation to Treasury yields are REITs and financial firms, though in opposite directions. Generally speaking, as interest rates rise, REITs experience selling pressure as investors opt for higher-yielding risk-free assets, while the opportunity to generate higher spread income is augmented with higher rates, sparking potential buying across the banking universe. The Fed continues to mull its options with how to build a “stimulus” cushion in advance of the next impending … Read more

Williams’ Rejection, Medtronic’s Hike, eBay’s Sale, and Hershey’s Disappointment

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Williams Companies Rejects Offer from Energy Transfer Equity Natural gas pipeline company Williams Companies (WMB) has seen shares jump after Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) confirmed reports that it had made a bid to acquire the company. Despite the all-equity offer of $64 per share representing a 32% premium to Williams’ June 19 closing price, the offer was rejected by the firm as significantly too low. ETE has made multiple attempts to talk with Williams’ management about a possible merger in the past half year, and ETE has said its offer is contingent on the abortion of Williams’ pending purchase of Williams Partners (WPZ). The initial offer came on May 19, six days after Williams Companies announced it would buy Williams … Read more

Oracle’s Cloud Performance Leaves a Hazy Overall Outlook

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After reporting fourth quarter and full year results for fiscal 2015 on June 17, Oracle (ORCL) shares took a significant hit. It is easy to see the effect foreign exchange rates had on the quarterly results, but there is more to the miss than meets the eye. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, Oracle reported revenue of ~$10.7 billion, a decrease of 5% as reported, or an increase of 3% on a constant currency basis. Driving the top line lower was a decrease in software and cloud revenue, more specifically new software licenses, where sales dropped 17%; new software licenses make up more than 20% of total revenue. Attempting to offset this significant drop was strong 29% growth in … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending June 19

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending June 19. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21. FBR (FBRC): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, first dividend paid. First Bancorp (FNLC): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21. Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Investar (ISTR): now $0.0078 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0074. Medtronic (MDT): now $0.38 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more