Member Articles

MLPs Starting to Adopt Free Cash Flow?

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Image shown: Since mid-June 2015, the price of an ETF tracking the midstream MLP energy space (AMLP) has fallen more than 40% while the S&P 500 (SPY) has rallied more than 30%. No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone! Hope you are having a nice start to the week. I have some great news for investors. In my lengthy piece from last Tuesday, which can read here, I talked about how master limited partnerships (MLPs) may be starting to embrace the very important metric free cash flow. If you remember, free cash flow is generally calculated as cash flow from operations less allcapital spending.  On the other hand, distributable cash flow, or the most widely-disseminated metric across midstream equities, generally excludes growth capital … Read more

Video Game Industry Adapting to Consumers and Technology

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Image Source: steamXO Adapting to consumer consumption trends is a necessity for video game makers, and rapidly improving technology standards are impacting the industry as producers work to deliver high-quality entertainment effectively. Long-term demand trends are generally bright, but continual innovation and adaptation will be necessary. By Kris Rosemann Key Takeaways Video game companies compete with all forms of entertainment for discretionary spending, and competition has never been greater. Business models aimed at driving recurring revenue have disappointed with respect to their ability to reduce lumpy financial performance. Evolving delivery methods cannot reduce the hit-based nature of the industry. We’re not interested in adding exposure to the space, but operators within it do have some attractive qualities, not the least … Read more

Ralph Lauren and Tapestry Revise Guidance in Opposite Directions

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Luxury goods companies Ralph Lauren and Tapestry saw their respective shares moving in opposite directions following their calendar fourth quarter earnings releases as both issued guidance revisions. Ralph Lauren appears to be executing well, while Tapestry can’t avoid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. By Kris Rosemann Ralph Lauren Raises Fiscal 2019 Guidance as Gross Margin Expands Shares of premium lifestyle product designer Ralph Lauren (RL) jumped following the release of its fiscal 2019 third quarter results February 5, as it turned in revenue growth of 5% on a year-over-year basis. Revenue in North America advanced 3% from the year-ago period, while revenue in Europe and Asia rose by 10% in each region, including 19% growth in Greater China in constant currency. … Read more

Industrials Sector Ideas — Examining the Fair Value Distribution

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Let’s have a look at some recent reports from a few of our favorite businesses in the industrials sector: Danaher, Dover, Eaton, Emerson, Illinois Tool Works, Ingersoll-Rand, Lennox, Parker-Hannifin, and Roper. [Red X denotes the company’s share price, as of the time of this writing, on the fair value distribution chart. We view shares as undervalued if the Red X is in the green, fairly valued if the Red X is in the yellow, and overvalued if the Red X is in the red. The images found below can be found on page 6 of each company’s 16-page stock report.] By Brian Nelson, CFA Danaher’s Business System Is a Key Cultural Asset On January 29, Danaher (DHR) released fourth-quarter 2018 results that came … Read more

Earnings Roundup: Fast Food and Coffee

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Image Source: Phillip Pessar Let’s take a look at some of the biggest restaurant operators in the fast food and coffee space. Established players continue to refranchise their massive global chains, and innovation in the digital channel may ultimately separate some from the pack. By Kris Rosemann Starbucks Comps Grow Nicely; Reiterates Fiscal 2019 Guidance Starbucks’ (SBUX) fiscal 2019 first quarter report, released January 24, revealed top-line strength in the form of 9% year-over-year net revenue growth as global comparable store sales grew 4%. A 3% increase in average ticket on a global basis was key to the increase in comparable store sales, and US comparable store sales growth came in at 4% from the year-ago period despite transactions being … Read more

General Motors Rallies, Tesla and Toyota Improve, Auto Parts Suppliers Getting Squeezed

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Image shown: General Motors may very well be on its way to $50+ per share. We continue to like General Motors, and we think Tesla is getting back on the right track with its financials. Auto parts suppliers have faced their fair share of pressure in recent months as the potential for a slowdown in global light vehicle production rises and input cost inflation also makes its presence felt. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA On February 6, General Motors (GM) reported fourth-quarter 2018 earnings, and they were quite good. We continue to believe shares of GM are ultra-cheap, as we wrote in: “We Think General Motors Is Poised for New Highs.” The automaker is included as an idea … Read more

Comparable Transaction Growth Returns for Chipotle!

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Chipotle turned in impressively strong comparable restaurant sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2018, which included a surprise in comparable restaurant transaction growth, and digital sales continue to grow as a percentage of total sales as management emphasizes growth within the channel. By Kris Rosemann Shares of simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Chipotle (CMG) jumped in after-hours trading following the release of its fourth quarter earnings report February 6. Comparable restaurant sales growth came in at 6.1% on a year-over-year basis thanks to a 3.3% increase in menu prices and a 2% increase in comparable restaurant transactions. Digital sales jumped by nearly 66% from the year-ago period and accounted for 12.9% of total sales … Read more

Gilead Sciences’ Top Line to Remain Muted

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Image shown: Gilead holds an impressive share of the US HIV market, both on an infected and diagnosed basis. Source: Gilead Sciences fourth quarter presentation. Simulated newsletter portfolio idea Gilead Sciences continues to battle intensifying competition in the HCV market, which has been able to offset its strength in HIV. Top-line growth has been nothing short of elusive, and management does not expect to return to material growth in the near term. By Kris Rosemann Shares of simulated newsletter portfolio idea Gilead Sciences (GILD) faced a bit of selling pressure following the February 4 release of its fourth quarter results, as it continues to be unable to drive top-line growth. HCV product sales continued to drop precipitously in the period … Read more

Questions Answered!

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Image shown: The S&P 500 (SPY) performance and the timing of when we went to “fully invested” in the simulated newsletter portfolios, the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter. No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone! Trust you are doing great. Here’s what you need to know about the broader market backdrop.  1) We’ve been expecting a more dovish Fed as the yield curve continues to threaten material inversion. We doubt the Fed will materially and purposefully invert it. The behavioral risks of actually causing a recession by doing so are too great. That means yield-oriented equities may continue to breathe a sigh of relief. This is good for ideas in the simulated Dividend … Read more

Arista Networks’ Overview and Holly Energy’s Dropdowns Dried Up

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We often receive specific questions from members for research requests on stocks not within our coverage universe and specific questions regarding companies already within our coverage universe. Let’s take a look at one of each such situation in this article. By Kris Rosemann Arista Networks (ANET) – Scalable Business But Not Without Challenges Arista Networks is a leading supplier of cloud networking solutions that utilize software to address demand from large-scale Internet companies, cloud service providers, and next-generation data centers. According to third-party estimates, the company has the second-largest market share in datacenter 10/25/40/50/100 Gigabit Ethernet switch ports as of 2017. Arista Networks operates in the large and growing cloud networking space, and it is working to take advantage of … Read more